TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 19日 / Composite Index 19/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 19日
如图中箭头A所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开41%，而综指始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指下跌8.88点 ，跌破了1163点的费氏线支持水平，所以1163点反过来成为综指的阻力水平，综指当前的支持水平处于1132点的费氏线。

综指自1196.46点开始下跌，惟综指还未跌破14、21、31天的综合加权移动平均线（EMA），这意味着综指还是保持在一个长期涨势的支持水平内。换句话说，若综指跌破31天的EMA，综指的长期涨势将有结束的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量继续减少12.8%，所以成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是投资者在综指下跌时，开始减少持票以及退居场外所致。成交量在综指下跌时，下退至成交量40天平均值以下是典型的形态，惟综指上扬时，成交量得再度增加至40天平均值，综指才能确认转强。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%以下，这是综指短期疲软的讯号，换句话说，只要随机指标维持在30%以下，综指的短期走势将继续下跌，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

由于综指跌破布林中频带，所以综指短期将继续的处于一个跌势中，若综指接下来亦跌破31天EMA，综指的长期涨势将有结束的风险。总的来说，综指目前依然处于弱势中，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或随机指标上扬突破30%为止。
Composite Index 19/08/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands (BB) continues to expand 41%, while the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band (BMB), therefore, the KLCI lose another 8.88 pt. The KLCI fell below the Fibonacci Retracement (FR) support level at 1163 pt, so the 1163 pt had became the KLCI resistance, on the other hand, a new support level is now at 1132 pt FR.

Though the KLCI started to fall after hitting 1196.46, the KLCI is yet to break below the 14, 21 and 31 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this means that the KLCI is still supported by the long term up trend EMA. In other words, if the KLCI should break below 31 days EMA, the risk of the KLCI going lower would be higher.

As indicated by B, volume traded decreased 12.8%, and therefore, volume fell below 40 days Volume Moving Average (40-day VMA level); this is normal when the KLCI is on a down trend, as investors choose to reduce their position while remain on the sidelines.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic failed to break above the 30% level, this means that the KLCI short term is still weak. The KLCI will remain in a short term down trend, until the Stochastic should break above 30%.

Since the KLCI has broken below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI has started its downtrend, and should the KLCI break below the 31-day EMA, the KLCI would then confirm the end of a long term up trend. In conclusion, the KLCI short term will be on a down trend, until the Bollinger Bands begins to contract or the Stochastic successfully breaking above the 30% level.