TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 21日 / Composite Index 21/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 21日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度回弹，综指最终还是无功而返，惟综指精确的在1163点的费氏线获得扶持，所以1157点至1163点的费氏线继续成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则是1186点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度进一步萎缩至4%，这表示综指的跌势并未恶化，不过由于综指始终未能突破布林中频带，所以综指依然属于弱势中。换句话说，综指必须先上扬突破布林中频带，综指才有望转强。另一方面，综指目前继续处于14、21、31天的综合加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，所以综指的长期走势并未完全转弱，综指依然有一线的机会转强。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少11.8%，使到成交量继续低于40天成交量（VMA），这是综指调整巩固时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%以下，这显示综指目前仍然处于短期跌势中，直到随机指标上扬突破30%的水平为止。换句话说，随机指标必须上扬突破30%，综指的短期走势才有望转强。

综指依然处于布林中频带以下，所以技术上综指属于弱势中，这表示综指必须上扬突破布林中频带，综指才能避开进一步下跌的困境。由于随机指标是最敏感的短期指标，所以当随机指标开始上扬突破30%，这将是综指第一个转强的讯号，这是接下来投资者必须密切留意的指标。
Composite Index 21/08/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI failed to close higher, however, the KLCI was precisely supported by 1163 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR); therefore, the support level of the KLCI fall on 1157 and 1163 pt FR, while the resistance remains at 1186 pt FR.

As shown in the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded only 4% from the previous 9%, this means that the down trend of the KLCI is not getting worse. However, the KLCI is still unable to break above Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the KLCI immediate outlook remains weak. On the other hand, the KLCI is currently supported by the 14, 21 and 31 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this means that the KLCI is not entirely bearish, and there is still a chance for the KLCI to recover from the current down trend.

As pointed by B, volume traded declined 11.8%; therefore, the volume is way below the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this is a classic pattern of the volume during consolidation or correction of the KLCI.

As circled by C, the Stochastic continue to stay below 30%, this indicates that the KLCI remains in a short term down trend, until the Stochastic is able to break above the 30% mark. In other words, the Stochastic has to break above 30% in order for the KLCI to regain its strength.

Technically, the KLCI is in a down or weak trend, as it is below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, in order for the KLCI to avoid further decline, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band soon. From now on, investors could monitor the most sensitive short term indicator, the Stochastic; when the Stochastic should break above 30%, it would be the first indication suggesting the KLCI might be turning positive.