ZLBT Chats

Friday, June 29, 2012

FKLI >>> The Bearish Engulfer With Support And Resistance

Support Seen @ 1581.50
With Another Floor @ 1572.00
(To ENLARGE chart >>> right click mouse >>> "Open In New Tab")


Thursday, June 28, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 28/06/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-28

FBMKLCI 28/06/2012
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI retreated and precisely testing the L2 uptrend line and the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support. The KLCI fell 7.65 points or 0.48% to close at 1594.24 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1609-1611.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.55%. Part of the reason was the active trading of Felda Global Venture Holding Bhd, which has accounted a little more than 16% of the total market volume. Nevertheless, with losers outnumbered gainers (477 to 248), the increased of volume actually suggests some increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, thus no Rounding Bottom signal is sighted yet. The falling of the MACD histogram suggests that the KLCI is still losing strength or it is still consolidating.

In conclusion, the FBM KLCI is testing its L2 uptrend line. If the KLCI should break below this L2 line, it means that the L2 uptrend would be temporary interrupted. However, a break below the L2 does not necessary means an immediate bearish reversal, at least not until the KLCI has formed lower-highs. On the other hand, if the KLCI could rebound from the L2 line or the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and forms Higher-Lows, it means that the current uptrend is still intact. 

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-28


如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续的下滑,因此还未有形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)的迹象。这表示综指短期还未能摆脱盘整格局。



Wednesday, June 27, 2012


The table below is a random compilation of actively traded stocks with some popular technical indicators. The technical BUY/SELL signals on the last four columns are auto generated; the first two being existing or recent signals while the last two represent a signal change from BUY to SELL or the reverse, otherwise no change is indicated by a dash. Stock names and technical statistics in bold highlight stocks that have changes in BUY/SELL signals on the DMI and MACD on the given date.
Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when
share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price
touches the upper band. Momentum traders tend to buy on price breakouts above the upper band, and sell when price breaks down below the lower band.
14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day moving
average should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day average is bearish and imply further near-term
downside risk
Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share
price stays above the 30-day average, and negative if it remains below. A longer-term uptrend is intact if share price sustain above the 50-day average, and is deemed broken if it breaches
below this level.
Directional Movement Indicator (DMI): The DMI is an indicator of trend strength. A positive DMI difference (DMI diff) value is bullish and indicate a higher DI+ vs. DI-, while a negative DMI diff is bearish due to a lower DI+ vs. DI- (DMI diff = DI+ minus DI-). A crossover of DI+ above DI- triggers a BUY signal, while a SELL signal is flashed when the DI+ crosses below the DI-. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) indicates the strength of a trend, whether it is up or down. The higher the value of ADX, the stronger the trend. An ADX value above 25 suggests a trending market or stock, while a value below 20 signal congestion or absence of trend.

Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD diff value is derived from the difference between the MACD line (the 12-day EMA minus the 26-day EMA) and the MACD signal line (the 9-day EMA of the MACD). A positive MACD diff value is bullish, while a negative MACD diff is bearish. A BUY signal is generated when the MACD diff rises above zero, and SELL signal sparked when the MACD diff value falls below zero.


The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

FKLI >>> Resilient Until When?

You may get Hammered
Against All Odds
While other global markets had been tanking for the past week, both the FBMKLCI & FKLI is not only resilient but recorded new highs as well today. The FBMKLCI added on 0.50 points to closed at 1603.12 after retracing from a 1611.50 new high. This is against the global flow. The FKLI, however, fell 3 points to 1603.00 after breaking all resistances to logged in a new 1615.50 high before profit takings kicks in. The retracement closed with a negative Inverted Hammer (IH). This is an early warning alert since the IH is formed at the peak of a rising trend. Technically, both the FBMKLCI & FKLI daily chart indicators have not displayed any obvious sell signals ..... yet.

More Than One Way To Skin A Cat
Since the Index Futures opens earlier and closed later than the cash market, it can be considered a prelude to the main Composite Index. Pre-emptive FKLI queuing can be noticed 5 minutes before the cash market open or closes. And similar sentiments usually continues the morning after. To gain the extra yard advantage over the rest, some innovations will be most helpful but risky, nevertheless.

The Alternative MACD Application
Most trading softwares have conventional MACD 12, 26, 12 as default operating standard procedures as with most other attributes. The usual suspects are RSI 14-days, Bollinger Bands 20/2, Stochastics 14, 3, 3 so on & so forth. These parameters are, however, not concreted otherwise softwares designers will not offer check box changes, will they? Since technicals are all but subjective, random changes can be very advantageous when knowledgeably applied. Technical newbies are warned to apply such changes with utmost caution.

In ZLBT, my recommendation for such an experimental endeavour is to try using MACD 6,12,6 as an alternative for the MACD 12,26,12 default. Sensivity is the keyword here so it is less useful when applied to longer timeframe charts such as weekly, monthly or yearly charts. But when applied to Daily, hourly, 30 mins, 15 mins or 5 mins chart, it can be awesome and to an extend, too hot to handle for some especially newbies. The danger of using MACD 6,12,6 are the whiplashes >>> the shorter the timeframe used (like 5 mins) the greater the kick backs. Alternative MACD 6,12,6 is more then 50% less than MACD 12,26,12 so the whiplash can be expected to be TWICE or TRIPLY fast. Applicants get ready for no surprises >>> FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS. The same principle applies for all other adjusted indicators & oscillators.

ZL have included the FKLI Spot Daily Chart c/w MACD 6,12,6 for your perusal. As shown in chart above, the bearish divergence is a good enough reason to anticipate a reversal anyday. Not a question of IF but WHEN. ZL lost a few points last Friday with a failed short attempt but is confident enough to recoup those minor losses this time around. I am in 1612.00 Short >>> Monday morning entry. Subjectiveness equates to rights & wrongs. A decent stoploss should limit the damages when prices goes against your entry. ZL admit being wrong last Friday when the FKLI rose against the Spinning Top (ST) but if I am correct with today's Inverted Hammer prognosis, I will not be yards but miles ahead of the crowd :)


Monday, June 25, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 22/06/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-22

FBM KLCI 22 June 2012
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the historical high again on Friday, with its intraday high reaching 1608.65 points. However, at the close, the KLCI was still resisted by the 1609, closing at 1603.07 points, gaining only 1.64 points. The 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.97%, but volume remains above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Technically, if volume should continue to increase while staying above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, the market sentiment in a whole is likely to improve a little.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram stopped rising on Friday, and if it should fall, it means that the KLCI is losing some strength in the short-term, or a signal suggesting consolidation ahead.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still testing the 1609 high, but its immediate technical outlook remains positive, provided that it is above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and the L2 line. Nevertheless, the performance of the regional markets still plays a important role in guiding our market overall performance.

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-22


如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)停止上扬,有形成圆顶的迹象。若平均乖离振荡指标接下来继续下滑的话,那表示综指短期有再次进入盘整的可能。



Wednesday, June 20, 2012

FKLI >>> Bulldozing To A Record High

MACD Histogram indicates more upside expected
The FKLI took out the all time record high of 1606.50 (03 Apr 2012) reaching an unprecedented 1608.50 before settling at 1607.50 on consistent follow through buying. The index futures punched through all resistances like wet paper.

An amazing performance indeed considering the uncertainties surrounding the Euro zone markets when global investors are on hair trigger stand-bys.

However, a word of caution for over zealous buyers ...... Today's failure to produce a negative candle or sell signal is by no means a white flag from the bears. There may appear any day a negative sell signal due to the FKLI overbought conditions.

TIP >>> A clue to monitor will be the all time high of the FBMKLCI @ 1609.33. That may or may not be the defining mark for a U-turn ..... :P


Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19 June 2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-19

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19 June 2012
As indicated by A, the KLCI rose sharply on Tuesday, closing at its daily high of 1594.98 points, gaining 12.25 points or 0.77%. As shown on the chart, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI, and the L2 line is the newly form short-term uptrend line. Next resistance for the KLCI is at 1600-1609 new high resistance.

Despite gaining over 12 points, which is the biggest gain since 29 of February, total market volume fell 0.91%, with volume still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the bullish movement on Tuesday was only participated by little investors. Technically, the market volume we have right now is still far away from reaching an ideal bullish market.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still ticking higher, thus suggesting that the KLCI short-term is still gaining some strength. The improving short-term signal is expected to carry on until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top.

In conclusion, the KLCI is extending is gains and forming the L2 short-term uptrend line. However, the bullish signal was not supported by strong volume. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is positive.

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-19


如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续上升,这表示综指短期走势继续改善的意思,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶(Rounding Top)为止。

总的来说,综指继续走高,并形成了L2 线的短期上升趋势。不过,这涨势却未有的得到成交量明显增加的确认。无论如何,以技术而言,只要综指能维持在142131EMA的动态支持线以上,那综指目前的技术展望还是正面的。


Friday, June 15, 2012

Technical Analysis : 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-15 / FBM KLCI 15 June 2012

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-15


如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)停止下滑,有形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)的可能。若平均乖离振荡指标能继续回弹的话,那表示综指短期的盘整结束,有回弹的机会。


FBM KLCI 15 June 2012
The KLCI gained 8.29 points, lead by regional markets gains after over-night rises of the US markets. The KLCI closed at 1579.23 points, and as indicated by A, the KLCI stays above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support as well as the 1566-1570 support.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 46.05%, almost touching the 40-day Volume Moving Average. If volume should continue to increase and break above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to improve. However, a few of the KLCI components (Petgas, Petdag, TM, Pbbank, and Maybank) had obvious increase of volume, but price closed lower. This is usually suggesting that selling pressure of these counters were relatively high.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram stopped falling on Friday, and if it could continue to tick up, it means that the KLCI short-term is now picking up some strength.

In conclusion, despite gaining over 8 points, the KLCI has not shown signs of resuming or forming an uptrend. Nevertheless, if volume should continue to increase, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to improve.


30 x Mid BB Rangebound Stocks 4ur Perusal 15062012

*Note: To qualify in this list below, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL.
Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.
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Thursday, June 14, 2012

EOD Charts >>> FBM KLCI + FKLI 14 June 2012

These 2 Charts speak for themselves
(extra commentaries not necessary)

To ENLARGE >>> Right click mouse >>> View in new tab

Monday, June 4, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 04/06/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-04

FBMKLCI 04/06/2012
Due to the massive sell down in the US market last Friday, the KLCI opened gaped down on Monday, losing 18.41 points or 1.17%, to close at 1555.18 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below 1570 support, while remains below the L1 downtrend line. Next support for the KLCI is at 1535.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this clearly suggests that the the market participation is indeed quiet. The lower volume is still implying a weak market sentiment as investors confidence is still low.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram stopped rising, and might be forming a Rounding Top. If the MACD histogram should continue to fall and forming Rounding Top, it means that the KLCI is losing strength again, which suggests a weakening short-term movement.

In conclusion, despite the strong rebound in the past couple weeks, the KLCI failed to break above the L1 downtrend line, suggesting that the KLCI downtrend is still intact, with negative technical outlook. Meanwhile, major markets in the Europe are already below the 200-day Moving Average, and the US is now testing the 200-day MA line. As for the Asian markets, major indices in Japan, HongKong, Shanghai, Taiwan and Singapore had already broken below their 200-MA, while the KLCI is still holding up above this level. This suggests that the KLCI has least affected by the weaker global sell down.

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-04


如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)停止上升,有形成圆顶(Rounding Top)的可能。若平均乖离振荡指标继续下滑而形成圆顶的话,那表示综指进入调整格局,短期走势再次有转弱的可能。



Saturday, June 2, 2012

FKLI Support and Resistance 04 June 2012

The Head & Shoulders Formation



Friday, June 1, 2012

FKLI >>> Head and Shoulder Resistance 01 June 2012

What commentaries? No need ...........
This picture paints a thousand words.