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Friday, April 27, 2012

Middle Bollinger Rangebound Stocks x 30 for your perusal 27 Apr 2012

*Note: To qualify in this list above, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL.

Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.

DISCLAIMER

The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.
 

GOODLUCK

Friday, April 20, 2012

FKLI Preview >>> Fundamentals and Technicals 20 Apr 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade range bound with downwards bias. Overnight US markets fell after weak labour data was published. Eurozone debt worries still linger despite Spain selling all its bonds at auction, although at higher prices. Back home, FBMKLCI settled at 1596.62, down 0.14 percent. The index traded range bound with a downwards bias. Despite an encouraging start to the day with the index trading above 1600  level, it could not be sustain and eventually retreated to finish near its low. With the resurfacing of euro debt worries, it came as no surprise that a trio of banking stocks weighed heaviest on the index, these were CIMB, Maybank and Public Bank. Market sentiment remains negative as futures trades at circa 3.5 points to the underlying cash.

Technicals
Futures settled at 1593.0, down 0.06 percent. After a slightly higher opening, futures proceeded to trade range bound with a slight downwards bias. A lack of fresh leads resulted in an uninspiring trading session as most investors preferred to stay sidelined, highlighted by meager volume. Investors will look to buy on weakness. MACD continues on a bearish divergence path, and futures hover just above its 20-day moving average.

As such, support and resistance levels are pegged at 1586 and 1598 respectively.

Intraday Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with a stop on or below 1586.0

Monday, April 16, 2012

CPO >>> Bears Continue To Pressurize Support Lines

SMA 20 survived the day.
But can it hold off another assault?
Better to retreat, regroup at SMA 30

 Goodluck & Happy Trending

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Alcoa surprises Wall Street with first-quarter profit

Alcoa Surges Past Estimates
After the bell on Tuesday, Alcoa (AA) released operational results for its first quarter of fiscal year 2012 that surpassed the Street's estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Management indicated that rebounds in the automotive and airplane manufacturing helped boost the results. Alcoa reported a record revenue figure of $6.0 billion (above the Street's $5.77 billion forecast) and earnings, excluding items, of $0.10 per share (above the Street's forecast of a $0.04 loss per share). Last year during the first quarter Alcoa reported earnings of $0.27 per share.

Growth at the company was driven by a surge in its Engineered Products and Solutions unit, which jumped 11%. Process improvements contributed to that gain, and Alcoa is expected to see further market share gains in the second quarter. However, in what could be construed as a negative, the company reaffirmed its demand projections for 2012, seeing aluminum growth of 7%, even as it said growth in the aerospace industry would outpace previous estimates. Elsewhere around the world, Alcoa projects China consumption to gain 11% after surging 15% during 2011. Management indicated it projects mid-single digit consumption growth in both Russia and Brazil, while Europe contracts 0.3%. I expected growth in China to slow as well as Europe to show more of a contraction.
The beat has a bittersweet feeling to it as the Street's forecasts have been in free-fall mode since November of 2011. According to Thomson/Reuters, estimates were for earnings of $0.20 per share in November, then $0.12 per share in December before falling to a loss of $0.04 per share by January. The Company capped its alumina production earlier this year, and there continues to be an oversupply in the marketplace, something that slightly higher demand from the auto and air business is not going to replace. Additionally, pricing power continues to be a problem as management indicated that the Company realized a 9% drop in aluminum prices during the quarter.
I had modeled for revenues to rise to $5.81 billion with a loss of $0.06 per share. Alcoa reported a much stronger rebound in the Engineered Products segment, which helped to offset the higher cost of goods and lower aluminum prices. The stock is up approximately 5% in the aftermarket, but is still down dramatically from this time last year (almost $18). I am not taking the bait; I would still avoid the stock, but if you are stuck in the stock, this looks like a great opportunity to take advantage of the positive news and sell while you can.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

WALL STREET >>> Critical Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow with Alcoa

A strong round of corporate earnings could help to offset last Friday's jobs disappointment

 

Alcoa (AA) kicks off first-quarter earnings for 2012 after tomorrow night's close. Historically, Alcoa's report has been very predictive for both corporate earnings and the subsequent price action within the equity market. While some say that too much emphasis is placed upon AA's actual report, it is undeniable that major corporate earnings numbers will have a huge impact upon the market's price action going forward.

 

Since the end of 2011, analysts' earnings estimates have been revised dramatically higher. Lowered expectations have given way to an increasing level of optimism, both on the macro and micro fronts. This could be a function of the increasingly positive economic data that has surfaced over the past few months. Of all the sectors within the market, financials have seen the most drastic upward revisions (currently at their highest level since 2008). Since the market bottom in March 2009, bears have held onto the mantra that the market cannot rally without participation from financials. Up until the beginning of this year, the bounce in financial stocks had been fairly modest, especially given the dramatic sell-off that they experienced during the crisis of 2008.

However, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is up dramatically this year, outpacing the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by over 7%. Since these stocks are now performing strongly, could continued outperformance by financials be the next catalyst to take us even higher?

Historically, upward earnings revisions have preceded very strong periods within equity markets, as evidenced by the accompanying Bespoke data (above charts). After last Friday's disappointing jobs number, a strong earnings season could be just what the doctor ordered to cause sideline money to come back into the market, driving it to new highs. All eyes will surely be on the upcoming data, which is now of paramount importance given the recently heightened expectations. 

Bottomline
Pre-market Dow Futures give a good indication of market traders expectations towards upcoming season's corporate financial reports.

Monday, April 9, 2012

30 x Mid BB Rangebound Stocks 09 Apr 2012

*Note: To qualify in the list below, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL. 

Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective daily charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.
INTERPRETATION OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS:
Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the 30-day, and negative if it remains below this average.

14-day RSI: A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day SMA should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day SMA is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk.

Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price touches the upper band. 

Momentum traders will buy on price breaks above the upper band, and sell when price breaks below the lower band. Alternatively, a sharp move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band, a useful observation when projecting price targets. 

DISCLAIMER

The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products. 

Thursday, April 5, 2012

FKLI >>> Bears Repel Bulls

DEFENSIVE STAR KEPT FKLI REBOUND IN-CHECK


 Related Article

HAPPY TRADING 

FCPO Daily >>> Fundamental / Technical Views 05 Apr 2012

Fundamental
Palm oil prices touched its highest in 13-months on Wednesday, as speculation of a tightening soybean crop in the coming months continue to paint a bullish picture for the tropical oil. 

Overnight crude oil fell by 2 percent, as a higher-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. US soyoil rose, buoyed by concerns over reduction in soybean supplies in South America. Expect futures to trade range bound with a downwards bias on the back of dwindling global sentiment after the Fed announced the unlikelihood of monetary stimulus to prop up the economy in the future.

Technicals
Futures settled at 3557, up 24 points. Futures trading was seen in the formation of a short-bodied white candle, indicating a bullish outlook as gains in the morning session remain consolidated throughout the day. Prices edged higher and the MACD continued on its bullish divergence journey. Technically speaking, indicators are showing bullishness in the market, however investors may be inclined to book profits after markets were spooked from the prospect of reduced liquidity in global markets.

Overnight Leads
Soybean futures market closed higher on Wednesday after back-and-forth session lifted by
concerns about shrinking crops in South America

As such, support and resistance can be pegged at 3500 and 3570.

Intraday Trading Strategy
Aggressive trader may short with a stop on or above 3574.

FKLI Previews And Technicals 05 Apr 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade lower today after a poor performance in the overnight US markets. Markets were spooked after the Fed’s declaration on monetary was deemed to hurt the global recovery, on top of this, a poorly received Spanish bond auction indicated the euro-zone debt crisis is still in murky territory.

Back home, FBMKLCI retreated below 1600 level to settle at 1599.27, down 0.46 percent. The index traded gradually lower throughout the day as investors priced in the affect of less monetary stimulus in the US. Banking counters CIMB and Maybank weighed heaviest on the index. Market sentiment remains in negative territory with futures discount to the underlying cash widening to circa 8 points.

Technicals
Futures settled at 1591.5, down 0.72 percent. Futures upwards momentum has been halted as investors concerns about the global economic recovery resurfaced after the Fed announced another round of quantitative easing was unlikely. Prices fell below major psychological level of 1600 in early trade, and quickly disintegrated to settle at its low of the day. MACD on the verge of a bearish crossover, whilst investors continue to stay sidelined as they weigh up the prospect of a world without monetary stimulus. 

As such, FKLI intraday support and resistance levels pegged at 1578 and 1596 respectively.

Intraday Trading Strategy
Aggressive trade may short with a stop on or above 1596.0

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

ZLBT Random Stock Pick >>> PERISAI 0047

The price of PERISAI (0047) has increased by more than 4% while trading volume of the last trading day is higher than the average volume over the past 50 days. It is also observed that the MACD line is below the signal line indicating some short-term price weakness. Technical rebounds can lead to further uptrend possibilities.

Perisai need to overcome 90sen (76.4%FR) to enhance upside to the upper Bollinger band (96sen) where profit-taking resistance should be strong. Retracement support is at 82sen (61.8%FR).

We like Perisai as a small cap exposure as net profit is expected to almost triple in this FY before normalising in FY13. As it has long-term contracts for its pipe lay vessel, MOPU and about 50% its marine vessels, earnings visibility is good and stable. Besides, we do not discount the possibility of it acquiring more strategic assets to venture into marginal field activities in the near-term. 

Perisai Petroleum
Recommended BUY on weakness 
Midterm Target >>> RM1.30