ZLBT Chats

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

FCPO >>> Technically weak and in slow recovery mode

FCPO Daily technical analysis

The FCPO active month contract ended slightly higher due to slightly improved in palm oil export released on Monday which underpinned the FCPO prices. ITS and SGS showed Malaysia palm oil export down 14% and 13% respectively. At the close, the FCPO up 15 points or 0.67% to 2,272.

Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle with lower wick has been formed on Monday where it indicated that the price was supported at the intraday lowest level.

Currently, the FCPO price still lingers between the range of 2,215 and 2,300. We should monitor closely which way it will break in the near term. Strong support level we would peg at 2,215 then followed by the psychological level of 2,200.

Referring to the MACD indicator, both lines staying in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators
MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative
Intraday technical support & resistance for 23/07/2013

1st support 2,215-00; 2nd support 2,170
1st resistance 2,280; 2nd resistance 2,305
Trade may attempt long with a stop on or below 2240.

FKLI 23/07/2013 >>> Previews and Technical Outlook

Expect futures to trend higher for the day, tracking gains in major bourses around the globe. In the US, the S&P 500 staged a third consecutive day of record high closing while dismal earnings from
McDonalds curbed gains in the Dow. Nevertheless, solid performance in the financial and health sectors managed to sustain gains. Back home, the FBM KLCI ended unchanged at 1797.68.

The local index ended flat after trading higher for most part of the day on last minute foreign selling activities. Meanwhile, volume across the board was thin as investors await the release of corporate earnings for the second-quarter prior to making investment decisions. The market was weighed down by British American Tobacco, Hong Leong Bank, and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. On the other hand, telecommunication stocks provided support for the market as Digi released favorable corporate earnings. Futures were still being traded at a premium of circa 4 points from its underlying cash market.
Futures prices drifted 0.17 percent higher to settle at 1801.50. Trading activities was depicted through the formation of an inverted white hammer, which is considered a bearish signal during an uptrend. Moreover, 20 day moving average now lies above the 50 day moving average and prices stray further away from its 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages, which suggest a bullish trend. As such, support and resistance can be eyed at 1790 and 1810 respectively.

Technical indicators
MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive
Intraday technical support & resistance for 23rd July 2013
1st support 1,790; 2nd support 1,785-80
1st resistance 1,806.5, 2nd resistance 1,810-15

Trade may long with a stop on or below 1790.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

FBM KLCI Daily Chart >>> Support and Resistance 17072013


ZLBT Random Stock Pick >>> AZRB (7078)

Technical Comments: Due to overbought technical momentum, any further rally on AZRB towards RM1.10 (14/2/12 peak) or higher should encourage selling prior to profit-taking correction ahead, while retracement supports are at RM1.03 (76.4%FR) and 96sen (61.8%FR).
AZRB (7078)
Chart Analysis
As of 16 July 2013, AZRB has been on a strong uptrend as suggested by the upward sloping 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages. In addition, the price just broke the resistance of 1.08 reinforcing the bullishness in the recent price movement. This breakout was accompanied by a higher than average traded volume which shows the enthusiasm of the traders to push the price higher and past this resistance hence giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.


Monday, July 15, 2013

FCPO Preview, Technical Outlook 15 July 2013

Palm oil prices hit 2-month low, pressured by latest release of USDA report which raised estimates for soybean planted acreage and ending stocks for this year. Robust global edible oil supplies had thus pressured local tropical oil to post the biggest drop since Nov 5. Furthermore, discouraging Chinese data and weak Indian rupees added to worries over falling demand from these top buyers amid expectations for high-yield production in the second half of the year. NYMEX crude rebounded as demonstration in Cairo on Friday highlighted Egypt’s political instability which continue to threaten oil supply.

Better-than-expected US second quarter earnings of financial sector had been another supportive factor to the market. US soyoil extended losses tracking sharp losses in Malaysian palm oil and on favourable weather forecasts in key growing regions which boost yield potential. Expect futures to trade lower today as prices are vulnerable to continuing weakness and investors might stay cautious ahead of export data due later today.

CPO futures lost 71 points to settle at 2301 with substantially higher trading volume recorded for the day. Prices opened lower and had been trading with downward bias throughout the day. The strong sell-off in last trading hour pushed prices to break major support levels, triggering massive stop loss for long position and bringing prices to as low as 2295. The downside movement in prices had created a long black candle which also indicates a wide trading range for the day. The break below support levels and moving averages coupled with bearish MACD indicators lead to a bearish outlook
for the coming session. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 2265 and 2325 respectively.


Trade may short with a stop on or above 2325.

FKLI Preview, Tecknical Outlook 15 July 2013

FKLI Daily technical analysis
The FKLI spot month contract ended slightly higher on Friday which was in tandem with the rise in benchmark index. At the close, the FKLI price up 1.5 points or 0.08 % to 1,789.5.
Based on the daily chart, a small positive candle with lower wick has been formed on Friday where it indicated that the FKLI price was supported at the intraday low level. As we can see in the chart, the price traded in a narrow range after it rose sharply on Thursday. However, the price still managed to stay above the support line for second day. The FKLI price may rise further if it is able to stay above the support line in the coming days.
Referring to the MACD histogram, rounding bottom is forming up. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.
Technical indicators
MACD= Positive, ADX= Positive
Intraday technical support & resistance for 15th July 2013
1st support 1,785; 2nd support 1,780-75
1st resistance 1,793, 2nd resistance 1,800


Thursday, July 11, 2013

FBM KLCI Preview, Technical Outlook 11 July 2013

Stocks ended off earlier highs on Wednesday, after initial optimism from overnight Wall Street strength was overshadowed by weaker export numbers from China which confirmed the world's second largest economy is slowing more rapidly. The KLCI still closed up 2.22 points at 1,768.71, off an early high of 1,771.24 and low of 1,766.67, as losers beat gainers 441 to 308 on slower trade totaling 1.22bn shares worth RM1.7bn.

Blue chips should continue to be range bound with upside capped amid cautious trade in the near-term, given the weaker-than-expected economic data from China dampening the growth outlook in the region.

Key immediate support for the KLCI stays at the 50-day moving average, now at 1,765, while a breakdown will grease correction towards 1,738, the 38.2%FR of the 1,597 low to 1,826 peak, , with 1,723 and 1,718, the highest point prior to 13GE, acting as stronger support buffers. On the upside, immediate resistance stays at 1,791, the 138.2%FP, followed by the 1,800 psychological level.


FBM KLCI Futures Preview, Technical Analysis 11 July 2013

Expect futures to trend higher today despite minimal gains in the US market overnight as local sentiments may look towards bullish signals due to encouraging announcement by the Federal Reserve Chairman.

Bernanke’s comments that the Feds will continue its bond buying activities up till the labour market show significance improvement may correlate easing concern of a slowdown in growth in the world biggest economist.

Back home, FBMKLCI gained 0.13 percent to settle at 1768.71. The index traded range bound with an upward bias for most part of the day as sentiments borrowed strength from gains in the US, spurred by better expectations of earning results. Adversely, the upside potential was limited as investors factored in weak external trade data from China, which was made available on the second half of the trading session.

Leading leaders of the index were a mixture of gaming, plantation and telecommunication counters namely Genting, IOI and Maxis. Futures still maintain trading at a premium of approximately 1.5 points from its underlying cash market.
Futures settled on a positive note with gains of 0.06 percent to close the day at 1770. Trading was depicted in the formation of a short bodied black candle signalling that sellers managed to outpace buyers for most part of the day. Sentiments remained generally bullish as prices still remains supported at its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Prices may open lower but if prices managed to break above its 1770 in early morning trades, investors may opt to go long taking advantage of an upward movement in prices. As such support and resistance can be pegged at 1765 and 1780 respectively.
Intraday Strategy
Trade may long with a stop on or below 1760.

Friday, July 5, 2013

FBM KLCI Futures >>> Daily Preview, Technical Analysis

Expect futures to trade range bound with an upward bias in tandem with rising Asian and European markets after European policy makers communicated that they will maintain interest rates at a record low for an extended period of time to stimulate further growth. US market was closed last night in conjunction with the Independence Day holiday. Jobless claims figures due to release later tonight will be closely watched for indication of economic strength.

In the local front, FBM KLCI gained 0.12 points to settle at 1771.34. The local index managed to post some gains in tandem with advances in most global markets, albeit lackluster trades.

Leading leaders were stocks from the plantation and banking industries, namely Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IOI Corp, CIMB, Maybank, Public Bank, and Hong Leong Bank. Futures now trade at a further premium of approximately 4 points away its underlying cash index.

Futures prices hiked 0.31 percent to close at 1775.50. Trading activities formed a white spinning top, a depiction of indecisiveness amongst investors. Regardless, prices still managed to close firmly above its 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages, which imply that strength was still in tact. Hence, expect prices to further its bullish movement today as MACD indicator pointed towards a buy strategy as well.

Support and resistance can be eyed at 1765 and 1785 respectively.

Traders may long with a stop on or below 1765.