ZLBT Chats

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Bursa Malaysia >>> Corrections To Continue Next Week

Technical Analysis FBM KLCI 290110 Friday
The KLCI ended lower on Friday, while rebounded at the 1250 support, the KLCI closed 5.35 points or 0.4% lower at 1259.16 points. As indicated by A, the support for the KLCI remains at 1250 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 1272 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement followed by the 1300 level.

As shown in the chart, the Bollinger Bands expanded 20%, which is a slower expansion rate than the previous day; this implies that the falling KLCI is likely to slow down, or it might be consolidating soon. If the KLCI should rebound, the Bollinger Middle Band would be a target of the rebound.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 4.1%, while barely staying above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the overall market participation is still on the healthy level. If volume should fall below the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is likely to turn weaker.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic %K line touches the %D line. If the %K line should cross above the %D line, it would be an early signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound. But still, the short term movement of the KLCI shall remain weak unless the Stochastic should break above 30% level.

In conclusion, the KLCI is due for a technical rebound or a consolidation. But if the KLCI has to break away from the bearish biased movement, it has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band.

Following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:

* Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its 100- and 200-day moving averages. It stayed below its 10-, 20-, 30- and 50-day moving averages.
* Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed above the support of its neutral reference line.
* On Balance Volume (OBV): Its short-term OBV trend stayed below the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.
* Relative Strength Index (RSI): Its 14-day RSI stood at the 32.91 per cent level on Friday.

Bursa Malaysia >>> Corrections To Continue Next Week
The FBM KLCI's sharp technical pullback hit its intra-week low of 1,253.09 yesterday, breaching the support zone (1,262 to 1,296 levels).

For the week just ended, the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index shed 41.29 points to 1,259.16 from last week's 1,300.45.

Some FBM 30 component lower liners cum speculative stocks recorded substantial losses for the past week

For the week ended Friday, the Finance Index dipped 336.7 points to 11,078.79 from 11,415.49, the Plantation Index fell 251.59 points to 6,188.13 from 6,439.72 and the Industrial Index was 114.86 points lower at 2,586.04 from 2,700.9.

The FBM Emas Index dropped 266.0 points to 8,484.0, the FBM Top 100 Index decreased 261.54 points to 8,249.32 and FBM ACE Index declined 113.38 points to 4,381.83. Total turnover slipped to 5.23 billion shares worth RM7.66 billion from 5.927 billion shares worth RM7.437 billion a week earlier.

Volume on the main market dropped to 4.14 billion units valued at RM7.5 billion from last week''s 4.838 billion units valued at RM7.188 billion. Call warrants went down to 193.12 million units worth RM37.04 million from 284.809 million units worth RM55.089 million. The ACE Market volume fell to 558.8 million units valued at RM93.18 million from 748.839 million units valued at RM165.66 millioOverall market sentiment is likely to remain fragile. The FBM KLCI is likely to further consolidate its recent gains. Intermittent technical rebounds will cushion the impact of the week's consolidations.

Second and third liners will continue to remain the trading focus of the week.

Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at the 1,262 to 1,296 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,221 to 1,255 levels.


WALL STREET >>> More Rumbles More Tumbles And Even More Humbled

The Dow Ended January Bear(ly) Alive; Nasdaq Hugged
Stocks fell this week as worries about technology company earnings and outlooks coupled with uncertainty about the political situation and concerns about sovereign debt stability weighed on sentiment and valuations.

Wall Street succumbed to another wave of tech selling on Friday as a flurry of strong economic indicators weren’t enough to wake the bulls from their three-week slumber.

U.S. Stocks had their worst month since February 2009. NYSE is just in an environment where good news is bad news. Last week they really broke the upward trend of the market.

Coming on the heels of the Dow's worst week since early March, this week's slide sealed the end of the blue-chip index's six-month winning streak and left it with its worst month since February.
The Dow lost 360.72 points, or 3.46% in January, and is off 5.19% during its three-week slide.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 53.13 points or 0.5% on Friday to close at 10,067.33 for a weekly loss of 1%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 31.65 points or 1.5% to close at 2,147.35 on Friday. For the week the index was down 2.6%. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 10.66 points or 1% on Friday to close at 1,073.87. The index fell 1.6% for the week.
The Nasdaq Composite took a much bigger hit as tech companies, which have rallied over the past month more than the broader markets, continue to respond negatively to earnings. Flash memory maker SanDisk plunged 12% after issuing a first-quarter outlook that fell shy of Wall Street’s hopes but met analysts’ estimates. Microsoft was also under heavy pressure even though its EPS of 74 cents soundly beat the Street’s view of 59 cents.
The negative reaction to earnings reports follows a trend this earnings season of better-than-expected numbers being met by selling pressure. It underscores how much stocks have run-up ahead of earnings season, suggesting the bar has been raised, and skepticism that companies will be able to repeat those results once the stimulus wears off.

The selloff in the tech sector overshadowed a largely positive day on the economic front.
Weekly Wrap-up - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops 105 Points on the Week
The day ends with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 53 after trading in a low-to-high range of 195 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost just under 1%. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost nearly 1.5%.

For the week
The Dow dropped 105 points, or just over 1%. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.6%. Th last post noted that the market is relatively oversold and that I am looking for an oversold bounce. Clearly that wasn't in the cards for today. With that still in mind, I want to revisit the weekly charts below .....

As noted then, I like to look at longer-term charts for perspective and am watching simple regression channels to help highlight the trend. The SPX, DJIA, and COMP are each at the lower rail. The RUT isn't too far from that mark. In other words, we will need to see some buying next week in order for the trends to remain intact. And that is where I will pick up next week.

Have a great weekend

Friday, January 29, 2010

FA WINNERS OR FA LIARS? Picture perfect proof 4u

First thing first ZL have no "gaduh" before with this so-called FA braggart known as longpinezi (@ longpenis to me). But read what that moron posted and commented in this article as linked below >>> ZL's reply is also in there.


After ZL replied and called his bluff , ZL also sent an email to the owner of the captured image RHB Invest portfolio belonging to one Lim Thow Teik @Samgoss, informing his portfolio had been mischeviously used to redicule one of my regular visitor.

How the situation came to head is none of my business but when push came to shove then, as this blog owner, ZL needs to clarify and verify some facts.

Email was sent to courteously inform Samgoss his RHB Invest portfolio had been abused NOT to finger point HIM or his supporters who did this. ZL also mentioned specifically that MORON LONGPENIS could also be a 3rd party blogger out to exploit certain issues which ZL do not wishes to dwell on and on and on and on .........

TRUTH or LIES >>> any trader with a PC or laptop can judge for themselves in under 15 minutes does all 5 mentioned stocks, prices & date tally? No rocket science formulas needed. ZL trust your neutrality......

1. From Moron LONGPENIS via Samgoss RHB Invest Portfolio

2. 5115 Alan price data by ZL

3. 5115 Alam Chart (99 sen level) by ZL

4. 5115 Alam Recommend BUY ON DIP @91.5 sen 11 April 2009

NOTE : This Moron Longpenis made a bragging claim his sifu portfolio was published on 06 April 2009. That makes ZL a tail chaser 5 days later and profitted from his FA sifu posting 06/04/09.

ZL will gladly admit and own up if you look at #3 Alam Chat 99 sen level >>> do you find Alam prices at 99 sen on 06/04/2009? HAHAHAHAHA!!!!

While you are still laughing at MORON LONGPENIS and his supreme FA fiasco please check out all 5 stocks captured in this RHB Invest Portfolio TIPU.

Can you (use your own source) find the 5 stocks prices & date as is where is?

A) 5115 Alam ............. 0.990 14 Apr 2009
B) 5125 Pantech ........ 0.665 14 Apr 2009
C) 5657 Parkson ........ 4.540 14 Apr 2009
D) 6742-WB YTLPWR-WB ..... 0.850 14 Apr 2009
E) 2283 Zelan ............ 0.850 14 Apr 2009

CLUE : All the 5 stocks mentioned above have the EXACT valued prices on 05 May 2009 as a complete portfolio in realtime. That so-called FA sifu RHB Invest portfolio is NOT dated 06 April 2009 as publication date. or so claimed. Cheating, lying, deceiving, misleading or manupilating YOU form your own judgement.

The final answer is PORTFOLIO TIPU 06 April 2009.

Prove ZL wrong pls >>> if you can. HAHAHAHA Samgoss or any FA puppies from your kennel

CONCLUSION: Who is this Mr FA aka Moron LONGPENIS trying to CON?

Ini macam punya BOHONG boleh tipu orang ke? Lu betul2 anjing bodoh MORON LONGPENIS >>> FA best? Pordah!!!!!


Bernanke Gets 2nd Term; Stocks Gets Another Hammering

Techno Bears Rumbled Nasdaq Tumbled; Dow Humbled 115.70 pts
Stocks trimmed losses by the close Thursday, but remained deep in the red, with techs falling after cautious outlooks from Qualcomm and Motorola. Ongoing worries about the labor market also gave investors a reason to retreat.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 115 points, or 1.1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 13 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 42 points, or 1.9%. The Dow & S&P 500 closed at nearly three-month lows and the Nasdaq closed at a 2-month low.

Tech is getting smashed and that's spread to the rest of the market.

Thursday's selloff landed the markets in the red on the week, adding to last week's plunge, which was the Dow's worst since March 2009. The blue chips ended at their worst level since Nov. 5.

Tech stocks tumble:
Technology in particular had a rough session Thursday, with telecom and semiconductors leading the decline.

Poor outlooks from Motorola and Qualcomm dented optimism in the technology sector.

Qualcomm Inc shares tumbled 14.2 percent to $40.48 and Motorola Inc slid 12.4 percent to $6.48 after both companies' earnings and outlooks fell short of expectations.

Global jitters overshadowed positive earnings from Dow component Procter & Gamble Co, which added 1.4 percent to $61.68 after its second-quarter earnings beat expectations and it raised its sales outlook for the year.

The market's drop Thursday also came in response to a report from Standard & Poor's that said it no longer considers Britain's banking system among the "most stable and low-risk." The report added to recent concern about rising debt levels in countries such as Greece and drove the dollar higher as investors sought safety. That sent some commodities prices lower.

Senate Votes Bernanke In
Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was confirmed for a second term after heavy lobbying by Democrats and the Obama administration.

Worries that Bernanke's term might not be renewed were among the factors that roiled markets last week. But concerns about the Obama administration's plans to impose greater regulations on banks and China's lending curbs really drove the selling, sending the major gauges down 5% in three session.

Some lawmakers have criticized Bernanke for lax bank regulation prior to the financial crisis, and 30 voted against his confirmation.

“A reappointment of Bernanke is good for the market,” said Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages about $2.5 billion in San Antonio. “It means less uncertainty. That’s what we need during this phase when the economy is recovering.”

In the commodity markets, crude oil and gold inched lower amid a stronger U.S. dollar. Crude fell 3 cents a barrel, or 0.04%, to $73.64. Gold sank 90 cents a troy ounce, or 0.08%, to $1084.80.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> General Outlook 28/01/2010

Plantations Heavyweights Drag Down FBM KLCI; Lower Liners Rebounded Off Lows
The market has broken the 1,300 level to the downside and is expected to be bearish in the short term.
Most major indices have also broken their support level
Of the 30 components of KLCI, 13 closed in the positive territory, nine ended lower while the remaining eight were unchanged. Volume for the component stock was 125 million shares worth RM810 million.

Market breadth was however positive with gainers outnumbering losers 534 to 190. Volume contracted to 935 million shares worth RM1,426 million from 1,083 million shares valued at RM1,827 million Wednesday.Bursa Malaysia's Finance Index gained 14.92 points to 11,074.77, the Industrial Index shed 5.39 points to 2,630.22 and the Plantation Index fell 46.21 points to 6,225.0.
The FBM Emas Index increased 18.25 points to 8,517.09, the FBM Ace Index advanced 33.67 points to 4,397.58 and the FBM70 Index was 53.90 points higher at 8,330.46.
Top gainers included Nestle which rose 76 sen to RM33.78, British American Tobacco which increased 46 sen to RM42.96 and KYM which went up 24 sen to RM1.13.
As for heavyweights, Sime Darby fell seven sen to RM8.66, Maybank and CIMB declined two sen each to RM6.80 and RM12.74 respectively, while IOI Corp dropped 11 sen to RM5.20 and Tanjong shed 12 sen to RM17.28.
FBM KLCI >>> Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the KLCI only loss a marginally 1.26 points after falling heavily for two days. The KLCI closed at 1264.51 points, with its support at 1250 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1272 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expansion rate has reduced from the previously 65% to only 26%, this suggests that the volatility of the KLCI has reduced, but the immediate bearish outlook remains intact. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI, with the Bollinger Middle Band being the first target.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 13.6%, with volume falling to the 40-day VMA level. It seems like the overall market participation has reduced, and if the volume should fall below the 40-day VMA level, it means that the market is getting quiet again, thus the KLCI is likely to consolidate with weakness.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still below 10% level, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak with some over-sold condition. Therefore, the KLCI is due for a technical rebound in the near term..
In short, the technical picture of the KLCI is still weak, at least for the short term, but with the KLCI is likely to consolidate as the Bollinger Bands is showing a possible consolidation signal. But still, provided that the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, while the Stochastic is still below 30% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be weak.

FBM KLCI Futures Market Overviews

FKLI Contracts Higher; From Discounts To Premiums
All KLCI Futures contracts ended higher Thursday and turned to premiums ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 points to the underlying.

The January contract gained 5.5 points to 1,267.0 points, reversing its discount of 4.77 points to the underlying Wednesday to a premium of 2.49 points. The contract opened 2.5 points higher at 1,264.0 points and traded between 1261.0 and 1,271.0 points during the day.

The February contract closed 8.5 points higher at 1,266.5 points, which is a premium of 1.99 points to the cash market against a discount of 6.77 points a day earlier. It opened 1.0 point higher at 1,259.0 points and traded between 1,258.5 and 1,268.0 points during the day.

The March contract rose 9.0 points to 1,266.5 points, which is a premium of 1.99 points to the underlying, while the June 2010 contract closed 9.5 points higher at 1,267.5 points, representing a premium of 2.99 points to the underlying.

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures Market Overviews

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up; Likely Higher Exports, Lower Output
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Thursday as investors covered shorts on a likely rise in exports in January.

Talk of lower output in Indonesia, the world’s largest CPO producer, and a fall in Malaysia’s palm oil production prevented prices from sliding below MYR2,400 a metric ton, said trade participants.

The benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR22 higher at MYR2,451/ton, close to an intraday high of MYR2,475/ton.

The contract opened lower on long liquidation but quickly moved into positive territory and further extended gains during the afternoon session.

"Speculators are expecting cargo surveyors to issue bullish export data. Prices are also up as some have squared-off positions ahead of the long weekend," said a Malaysia-based exporter.

Markets will be closed Monday for Federal Territory Day.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. are expected to issue export data for January Monday, despite the holiday.
If soyoil and crude oil futures are positive overnight, CPO prices could even test MYR2,500/ton Friday, said a Kuala Lumpur-based broker.

March soyoil was trading 29 points higher at 36.61 cents a pound by the end of trade on BMD.

Analysts said lower CPO output in the first six months of 2010 will likely reduce palm oil inventories in Malaysia. This may raise CPO prices as demand for the vegetable oil improves in tandem with the global economic recovery.

With Malaysia's replanting program covering 200,000 hectares of plantation land to be carried out in 2010, CPO output is expected to decline, said an analyst at BNP Paribas.

Lower output in January may prevent a buildup in palm oil inventories and improved exports may reduce stocks to around 2 million tons, said an analyst in Kuala Lumpur. Palm reserves were around 2.24 million tons in December.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June traded at $752.50/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trader.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 higher at MYR2,480/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 73,347 lots, down from 73,799 lots traded Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 15,763 lots of CPO were traded versus 20,285 lots Wednesday.

Wall Street Investors Shakes Off Housing Jitters Ahead Of Presidential Address

DJIA Rose Ahead Of Obama's State Of The Union Address Tonight
The market rallied after Wall Street had been hit by so many negative bits of news (lately), whether from Washington or China, that there was some relief that there wasn't anything overtly negative that could be construed from the Fed statement. The market also managed to overcome jittery housing data and rallied from the 3rd quarter of the trading day

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) gained 41.87 points, or 0.41 percent, to end at 10,236.16.
In contrast to the late-day wave of selling a day earlier, Wall Street closed Wednesday’s eventful session near session highs as the bulls look to recoup some of last week’s big losses.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 5.33 points, or 0.49 percent, to 1,097.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 17.68 points, or 0.80 percent, to 2,221.41.

During the regular session, Apple's shares rose 0.9 percent to $207.88, reversing course from a drop of more than 3 percent earlier in the day after the company unveiled its iPad tablet computer.

Today in the tug of water between the positives of strong earnings and negatives political backdrops, strong earnings won.

Volume was light on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.3 billion shares changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 2.18 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 2.49 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 1.63 billion.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> Another Red Hot Day

Please click on images to ENLARGE. Thank you
Malaysian Shares Closed Lower For The 6th Straight Sessions
The FBM KLCI tumbled 17.25 points or 1.34% to 1,265.77 points. It opened 1.49 points lower, which was also the day’s highest level, at 1,281.53 points and moved to a low of 1,262.32 points during the day. Trading band was 19.21 points.
Market breadth was negative with losers outnumbering gainers 618 to 168. There were 1,083 million shares worth RM1,827 million exchanging hands against 1,250 million shares valued at RM1,654 million Tuesday.
Of the 30 components of KLCI, 3 closed in the positive territory, 22 ended lower while the remaining 5 were unchanged. Volume for the component stock was 154 million shares worth RM1,041 million.
The KLCI also broke below the 1272 Fibonacci Retracement. Therefore, the next support for the KLCI is at 1250 while the resistance is at 1272 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
Total market volume declined 13.4%, while the market volume remains above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is still actively participated, but if the KLCI should fall with high volume, it would imply that the selling pressure is strong.

In conclusion, the KLCI ended lower amid the bearish Bollinger Bands signal. However, with some sign of oversold condition, the KLCI is due for a technical rebound. Nevertheless, should the KLCI remains resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band after the rebound, the outlook shall remain bearish biased.
For the heavyweights, Sime Darby fell six sen to RM8.73, Maybank declined three sen to RM6.82, CIMB dropped 30 sen to RM12.76 and Maxis was flat at RM5.39.IOI Corp shed 10 sen to RM5.31, Tenaga Nasional went down 13 sen to RM8.00, Public Bank decreased 20 sen to RM11.70, PPB was 26 sen lower at RM16.38 and British American Tobacco went down 30 sen to RM42.50.
The Finance Index lost 179.16 points to 11,059.85, the Industrial Index shed 13.73 points to 2,635.61 and the Plantation Index went down 74.58 points to 6,271.21.
The FBM Emas Index dropped 111.7 points to 8,498.84, the FBM Ace Index declined 32.35 points to 4,363.91 and the FBM70 Index was 86.84 points lower at 8,276.56.
The Ace Market volume rose to 106.463 million shares worth RM18.02 million from 81.989 million shares worth RM16.167 million previously.
Consumer products accounted for 41.49 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 211.92 million, construction 57.55 million, trade and services 322.83 million, technology 40.65 million, infrastructure 19.87 million, finance 89.91 million, hotels 458,300, properties 98.15 million, plantations 31.27 million, mining 100,000, REITs 2.96 million, and closed/fund 38,200.

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures Market Closing Report

FCPO Closed Higher; Off Lows On Short Covering
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell below MYR2,400 a metric ton due to selling pressure related to concerns over China's tightening monetary policy, but came off lows in a bout of short covering.
Prices turned choppy during the afternoon session, moving between positive and negative territory but ending higher.

The benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR22 higher at MYR2,429/ton after moving in a range between MYR2,393-MYR2,438/ton.

"Gains on BMD were more of a technically-inspired rally. Global vegetable oil supply fundamentals remain bearish on prospects for a record South American soybean crop," a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive said.

Investors were also concerned about China's future monetary policy measures, which have also affected most other commodity markets.

This year's soybean supply may be the key driver of prices in 2010, Barclays Capital said in a note.

With prospects for a large increase in global supply in the offing, prices of soybean and soybean products including soyoil may edge lover in the coming months. Brazilian and Argentine output will be flowing into markets in the first and second quarter this year, it said.

The soyoil price outlook influences palm oil prices as the vegetable oils compete for similar export markets.

During Asian trading hours, March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell as much as 30 points to 36.47 cents/pound. The March contract was last trading down 13 points from the overnight close at 36.64 cents/pound, down 13 points from the overnight close.

Palm oil's current supply fundamentals helped negate bearish cues from external markets and prevent a sharp decline in prices, due to a double-digit percentage decline in output in Jan. 1-25 from a month earlier, some traders said.

FBM KLCI Futures Market Overviews

FKLI contracts tumbled, closed at discounts
All KLCI Futures contracts ended lower Wednesday and continued to close at discounts to the underlying, ranging from 4.8 to 7.8 points.

The January contract lost 17.0 points to 1,261.0 points, trimming its discount to 4.77 points to the underlying from 5.02 points Tuesday. The contract opened 1.0 point higher at 1,279.0 points and traded between 1260.5 and 1,280.5 points during the day.

The February contract tumbled 17.5 points to 1,259.0 points, which is a discount of 6.77 points to the cash market against a discount of 6.52 points a day earlier. It opened 0.5 of a point higher at 1,277.0 points and traded between 1,256.0 and 1,279.5 points during the day.

The March and June contract closed at 1,258.0 points after falling by 17.5 and 18.0 points respectively, representing a discount of 7.77 points to the underlying.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 01月 26日 / Composite Index 26/01/2010

综合指数 2010年 01月 26日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开28%,而综指已经以及处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下了,所以富时综合指数下挫13.77点或1.1%,以1283.02点闭市,综指当前的支持水平落在1



如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离(MACD)继续下跌,所以综指的中长期走势亦开始转弱。通常综指将继续的走软,直到平均乖离的振荡指标(Histogram)形成一个圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。


Composite Index 26/01/2010
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands expanded 28%, with the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the Bollinger Bands suggests a bearish biased signal, and the KLCI loss 13.77 points or 1.1% to close at 1283.02 points.
Support for the KLCI is now at 1272 level while the resistance is at 1300 level.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle
Band, and the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the bearish movement is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 25.5%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that despite the profit taking activities, there were still some bargain buying at lower price. However, technically speaking, if the market to fall with huge volume, it is a sign of higher selling pressure, thus it will dampen the market sentiment.

s indicated by C, the MACD is still falling, suggesting that the mid to longer term movement of the KLCI is now turning weaker, and unless the histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, the weakening signal is expected to continue.

In conclusion, the KLCI is pulled down by cautious investors as market across the globe are weakening as well. In short, the technical outlook for the KLCI is now negative, unless the Bollinger Bands could begin to contract, or the Stochastic breaking above 30% level, which would suggest a consolidation for the KLCI.

Bank Led Dow Rally Fizzled

Bears Prowl Wall Street
Wall Street suffered a late-day setback on Tuesday as financial stocks tumbled ahead of the close, erasing a rally that had been fueled by robust earnings and signs consumers have regained some confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.57 points, or 0.03%, to 10194.29.

The Dow had been up nearly 100 points earlier on Tuesday as the bulls cheered big earnings beats from Apple, Travelers and the upbeat economic data.
The last-minute slide didn't appear to be sparked by any specific news.

Instead, it underscores the wait-and-see game
being played by the markets ahead of President Obama's State of the Union speech, a likely vote on Ben Bernanke's reappointment as chairman of the Federal Reserve and the conclusion of the Fed's policy meeting.

The late-day wave of selling overshadowed enthusiasm for a new report from the Conference Board that showed consumer confidence soared in January to the highest level since the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in Sept. 2008.

U.S. stocks fell 5 percent in a three-day span to close out last week after the Obama administration proposed new restrictions on large banks.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 4.61 points, or 0.42 percent, to 1,092.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 7.07 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,203.73.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

FBM KLCI Futures >>> A Real Bloody Day

Please click images to ENLARGE
The FBM KLCI Futures market turned into an abbatoir where bulls, cows and even calves were slaughtered wholesale, mercilessly.
Long traders were reined in and drag through one of the most bloody futures trading days since the introduction of the benchmark FBM KLCI Index.
In retro, there were earlier signs over the past few sessions when the FKLI months kept slipping regularly into discount over the underlying cash.
BT (this blog) had warned of such an impending and overdued correction with this article published on 22 Jan 2010 as per below >>>
The above chart is extracted from the mentioned article.
The crux of the chart title " NO MAN's LAND" clearly showed what goes around; comes around. Note the date of 04 Jan 2010 when the bulls punched through resistances like they were wet paper. There was little or no bear defenders. It looked then like unhabitated wasteland.
This time around it is the bear invaders' turn to go one up on the bulls. What they did in one day, so can we!. Notice the similarity of both set of 60 minutes candlesticks on 04 Jan & 26 Jan ??? Identical >>> and where did it happen?
Where else but no man's land???
FKLI contract months sink into deeper discounts
All KLCI Futures contracts ended lower Tuesday and closed at higher discounts ranging from 5.0 to 7.0 points to the underlying.
The January contract closed at the day's lowest level of 1,278.0 points after dropping 17.0 points, expanding its discount to 5.02 points to the underlying from 1.79 points Monday. The contract opened 0.5 of a point lower at 1,294.5 points and moved to a high of 1,295.5 points during the day.
The February contract closed 18.0 points lower at 1,276.5 points, which is a discount of 6.52 points to the cash market against a discount of 3.29 points a day earlier. It opened 0.5 of a point higher at the day's highest level of 1,295.0 points and moved to a low of 1,275.0 points during the day.
The March contract shrank 18.5 points to 1,275.5 points, which is a discount of 7.52 points to the underlying, while the June contract closed 17.5 points lower at 1,276.0 points, representing a discount of 7.02 points to the underlying.
Spot futures expires at the last trading day of each month.

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> Market Biz Overviews

Please click on images to ENLARGE
Shares Reeled From 5th Bear Attack; FBM KLCI Down 13.77 pts (1.06%)
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia closed lower Tuesday in line with the downbeat performance of the regional bourses. The benchmark index registered its losses for the fifth consecutive day on more robust volume.
The FBM KLCI lost ground for the 5th consequtive days to close at 1,283.02 points. It opened 0.02 of a point higher at 1,296.81 points, slightly below the day's highest level of 1,297.45 points and moved to as low as 1,278.10 points during the day, representing a trading band of 19.35 points.
Market breadth was negative with losers outnumbering gainers 708 to 152. Volume however expanded to 1,250 million shares worth RM1,654 million from 996 million shares valued at RM1,131 million Monday.
Of the 30 components of KLCI, only 2 closed in the positive territory, 24 ended lower while the remaining four were unchanged. Volume for the component stock was 121 million shares worth RM775 million.
Among the active stocks, Talam edged down one sen to 12 sen, IRCB fell 13 sen at RM1.38 and KNM shed three sen to 73.5 sen.
Counters that bucked the trend included Tomypak which gained 35 sen to RM2.63, AEON which rose 30 sen to RM5.50 and Perduren which went up 28 sen to RM1.82.
For the heavyweights, Sime Darby fell six sen to RM8.79, Maybank declined five sen to RM6.85, CIMB dropped 22 sen to RM13.06 and Maxis was flat at RM5.39.
IOI Corp shed nine sen to RM5.41, Tenaga Nasional went down five sen to RM8.13, Genting decreased eight sen to RM7.12 and MISC fell 25 sen to RM8.15.
Lagging Movers were CIMB (-22 sen to RM13.06), GENTING (-18 sen to RM7.12), IOI (-9 sen to RM5.41), MISC (-25 sen to RM8.15) and SIME DARBY (-6 sen to RM8.79). Leading Movers were ASTRO (+1 sen to RM3.24) and RHB CAPITAL (+1 sen to RM5.35). Market breadth was negative with 708 losers as compared to 152 gainers.
The Finance Index declined 1.18% to 11239.01 points, the Properties Index lost 2.10% to 789.03 points and the Plantation Index eased 1.21% to 6345.79 points.
The Ace Market volume dropped to 81.989 million shares worth RM16.167 million from 120.4 million shares worth RM22.35 million.