TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 08/01/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 01月 08日

Composite Index 08/01/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI were mostly lower on Friday, but it ended with a gain of 1.56 points at the close. The resistance for the KLCI remains at 1300 level while the support is at 1265 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted only 1%, and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to contract, the KLCI is likely to consolidate or to have its technical correction. If the KLCI should have a technical correction, the Bollinger Middle Band shall be its first target.

As indicated by B, total market volume continue to decline, falling 29.7%, but it is still above the 40-day VMA level. The lower volume during a consolidation is rather healthy, for investors take taking profit while others are waiting on the sidelines cautiously.

Generally, with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the market is well-participated, and it is likely to help sustaining the positive market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly while still staying above the 70% level, therefore, this suggests that the market movement for the short term is still bullish bias.

Basically, a technical correction or a consolidation for the KLCI is rather healthy, and the first target of the correction is usually the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance that the KLCI to resume its current uptrend. Other wise, the KLCI might turn weaker.

综合指数 2010年 01月 08日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度延续周四的调整而走低，惟综指随后回弹，并且按日微扬1.56点。综指当前的阻力水平继续的处于1300点的心理阻力水平，支持水平则是1265点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度只有1%，所以综指的涨势亦迅速的缓慢下来，若布林频带接下来开始收窄的话，那将是综指形成技术调整的讯号，届时布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将是综指调整的第一目标，也是综指的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少29.7%，惟成交量仍然是处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示投资者在综指出现技术调整时，选择谨慎交易，也有一部份的投资者采取观望的态度。无论如何，只要成交量能维持在40天成交量平均值以上，那市场在有充足的承接力量下，综指将有望维持在继续转强的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回弹，并未跌破70%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势依然属于上扬的格局中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

基本上综指目前出现调整巩固，所以接下来若布林频带继续收窄，那综指将会开始下调至布林中频带的动态支持线。一般上，只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持，那综指将有望再度恢复上扬的格局；反之，综指将会有转弱的风险。