ZLBT Chats

Thursday, June 30, 2011

ZLBT Morning Views : Bursa Malaysia + Wall Street

Malaysian Stock Market May Extend Gains
The Malaysian stock market has finished higher now in back-to-back sessions, adding more than a dozen points or 0.6 percent along the way. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index settled just above the 1,575-point plateau, and now analysts are forecasting additional gains for the market when it kicks off trade on Thursday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is broadly positive following optimism over a resolution for the Greek debt crisis. Commodities are expected to fuel the rally - gold and oil, in particular - while financials also should provide support. Softness from the properties and airlines may limit the upside. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly in the green, and the Asian bourses also are tipped to track to the upside.

The KLCI finished slightly higher on Wednesday following gains from the financial shares, industrial issues and plantation stocks.

For the day, the index added 4.99 points or 0.32 percent to finish at 1,575.01 after trading between 1,570.39 and 1,575.81. Volume was 1.044 billion shares worth 1.796 billion ringgit. There were 434 gainers and 333 decliners, with 319 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Maybank, Sime Darby, Tenaga Nasional, Petronas Chemicals and Axiata all finished higher, while Media Shoppe was unchanged and CIMB Group ended lower.

The lead from Wall Street is fairly upbeat as stocks posted further upside on Wednesday after showing strong upward moves in each of the two previous sessions. The markets benefited from news that the Greek parliament voted to approve a crucial package of austerity measures.

WALL STREET : Rebound extends into 3rd day
Stock indexes poised for monthly gains; quarterly losses
Greece remained in the driver's seat today, as traders around the globe cheered the parliamentary approval of much-needed austerity measures for the debt-laden country. Another vote on implementation is scheduled to take place on Thursday, but U.S. investors didn't hesitate to price in their optimism over today's legislative victory. On the home front, a dose of upbeat housing data also fueled the bulls, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reporting a surprisingly robust rise in its pending home sales index. Black gold also joined in the day's rally, with the front-month oil contract catching a lift from unexpectedly steep declines in both crude and gasoline supplies. As a result, traders overlooked increasingly dire warnings about the U.S. debt ceiling from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, President Obama, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), sending the major market indexes to their third straight daily victory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,261.42) ended the day on a gain of 72.7 points, or 0.6%, as 24 of its 30 components closed higher. Bank of America (BAC) led the advancing blue chips, up about 3% after settling a suit related to mortgage-backed securities. Microsoft (MSFT) paced the six declining Dow members with a loss of 0.7%. Thanks to today's rally, the Dow closed above the 12,200 level for the first time since June 2.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,307.41) added 10.7 points, or 0.8%, and collected a daily finish atop the 1,300 region for the first time since June 3. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,740.49) rounded out the day's advance by tacking on 11.2 points, or 0.4%.


Crude oil rebounds another 2%

Crude oil futures continued to gain ground today, thanks to a steeper-than-expected decline in domestic stockpiles. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude supplies fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week ended June 24, compared to expectations for a drop of just 1.7 million barrels. Plus, gasoline inventories plummeted by 1.43 million barrels, defying predictions for a modest weekly rise. In addition to evidence of shrinking supplies, traders also considered signs of an impending resolution to the Greek debt crisis, which stoked expectations for a rebound in global demand. Against this backdrop, August-dated crude futures added $1.88, or 2%, to end at $94.77 per barrel.
HAPPY TRADING


Wednesday, June 29, 2011

20 x Middle Bollinger Rangebound stocks 4ur perusal

*Note: To qualify in this list below, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL.

Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay rangebound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.
DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

GOODLUCK2ALL

WALL STREET >>> Bulls See Light at the End of Greek Tunnel

Greek Resolution Elevates The Dow
U.S. stocks resumed Monday's rally right out of the gate today, shrugging off some sour sentiment data and violent protests in Athens. Instead, the Street took the glass-half-full approach ahead of a couple of key austerity votes in Greece, which will likely determine the fiscal fate of the debt-riddled country and its comrades in the euro zone. The elevated hopes for a Greek resolution -- as well as some signs of life on the housing front -- kept ebbing consumer confidence on the backburner, and helped crude and gold futures capitalize on a softer U.S. dollar. By the time the dust settled, all three major market indexes were parked near their session peaks, while the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 19.17) gave back its closely watched foothold north of 20.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,188.69) advanced 145.1 points, or 1.2%, to end north of its 10-day and 20-day moving averages for just the second time this month. Only four of the Dow's 30 components bucked the trend, led by JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) 0.9% drop. Meanwhile, Caterpillar (CAT) paced the advancing equities with a 3% gain, while McDonald's Corp. (MCD) tacked on a healthy 2.5%.

In the same vein, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,296.67) added 16.6 points, or 1.3%, to end above its own 10-day and 20-day trendlines for the first time in June. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,729.31) once again outshined its peers, gaining 41 points, or 1.5%, to settle atop the 2,700 level for the first time in three weeks.

Crude oil futures notched their largest single-session percentage gain since May 18

Optimism ahead of Greece's austerity vote boosted hopes for oil demand, fueling crude futures to their best finish in nearly a week today. Expectations that a low-pressure system off the Mexican coast could turn into a tropical depression -- as well as an ailing dollar -- also bolstered black gold. Against this backdrop, August-dated crude oil futures tacked on $2.28, or 2.5%, to settle at $92.89 per barrel -- the front-month contract's largest single-session percentage gain since May 18.

HAPPY TRADING

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

FBMKLCI Gets H1 Window Dressing Support

Better Sentiments Expected For KL Stocks
The local stock market ended lower in line with weaker regional markets amid concerns over inflation and contagion from the Greek debt crisis. The KLCI lost 2.14 points to close at 1,562.52, after oscillating between low of 1,560.32 and high of 1,564.3, as losers beat gainers 433 to 263 on slow trade totaling 788.4mn shares worth RM1.34bn.

Given the weak trading momentum, stocks should extend consolidation with blue chips supported by window-dressing ahead of the half-year end closing. Immediate resistance for the index is at 1,566, the 31 May peak, with next significant hurdle from the record high of 1,576.95 of 6 January. Immediate support remains at 1,552, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the 1,576.95 record high of 6 January to the 1,474 pivot low of 28 February, followed by 1,537, the 61.8%FR and next at 1,525, the 50%FR.


HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT Morning Views : Dow Halts 3-Day Decline;

DJIA shrugged off unimpressive domestic data in favor of France's Fiscal Olive Branch
U.S. stocks powered higher today, as the Street shrugged off unimpressive domestic data in favor of encouraging signs from overseas. Specifically, France helped ease investors' anxiety ahead of a key round of parliamentary votes in Athens, with French banks offering to accept slower repayment of Greek loans -- putting more distance between the cash-strapped country and a debt default. On the home front, meanwhile, leaner-than-expected capital rules translated into a boon for a few banking names, while cloud-related hype surrounding Microsoft (MSFT) provided the tech sector -- and the blue chips -- with a halo lift. Against this backdrop, the bulls took a disappointing report on consumer spending and incomes with a grain of salt, with all three major market indexes notching respectable gains by the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,043.56) tacked on almost 109 points, or 0.9%, effectively snapping its three-session losing streak. Only four of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended in the red, led by DuPont's (DD) 0.4% retreat. On the flip side, Microsoft paced the bullish majority with a gain of 3.7%. While the blue-chip barometer climbed back atop the 12,000 marker, the index's upward momentum stalled in the 12,100 neighborhood -- home to its 20-day moving average.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,280.10) added about 11.7 points, or 0.9%, by the time the dust settled. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,688.28) outpaced its peers, advancing 35.4 points, or 1.3%, to end north of its 20-day moving average for just the second time since mid-May.

Black Gold @ 4-month Low
Crude futures finished moderately lower today, thanks to concerns of ebbing demand stemming from a dip in consumer spending. Nevertheless, black gold's losses were limited courtesy of an ailing greenback, which kept holders of foreign currencies off the proverbial sidelines. By the close, crude oil for August delivery shed 55 cents, or 0.6%, to end at $90.61 per barrel -- a new four-month low.


HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Monday, June 27, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年06月27日 / FBMKLCI 27/06/2011

综合指数 2011年 06月 27日
尽管美国股市上周五下跌,富时大马综合指数周一只是出现轻微的调整。如图中箭头A所示,综指仍然稳站在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态支持线及L1线以上,这表示当前综指的技术展望仍然是处于正面的。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周一减少26.77%,而在此处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。这表示马股当前的交投未能恢复活跃的状态。这暗示着投资者对马股信心仍然不强,因此继续保持场外观望的态度。简单来说,综指(或马股整体上)若要转强的话,成交量必须明显增加,并保持在40天的成交量平均线以上。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)虽然周一稍微的回退,不过依然维持在70%水平以上,这表示综指当前短期的走势依然是处于强势中,直到随机指标失守70%水平为止。

总的来说,综指当前技术展望仍然是良好的,只不过市场的交投量仍然处于低迷的状态,因此在未获得足够的承接力的推动之下,综指(或马股整体上)难以转强。因此综指目前的阻力水平仍然是1566点的水平,而下一道阻力水平便是1576.95点的历史新高水平。

祝你好运

Friday, June 24, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年06月24日 / FBMKLCI 24/06/2011

综合指数 2011年 06月 24日
如图中箭头 A 所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)周五继续试探1566点的阻力水平,按日微扬1.47点或0.09%,以1564.66点挂收。由于综指目前继续获得14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)及L1线的扶持,因此当前的技术展望仍然是偏强的。综指下一道阻力水平将会是1576.95点的历史新高水平。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周五增加22.94%,这使到成交量成功突破40天的成交量平均线(VMA)。一般来说,成交量的增加,表示马股交投开始活跃起来,同时也暗示了市场资金的流入也增加。成交量接下来若能维持在40天的VMA以上,那将有助于综指接下来上探历史新高水平,同时有利于稍微改善马股整体上的投资气氛。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续维持在70%水平以上,这是综指短期偏强的讯号。以技术而言,只要随机指标能维持在70%水平以上,那综指短期的后市将继续是偏强的。

总的来说,综指当前技术展望继续是偏强的,再加上成交量有增加的迹象,因此综指有望上探1576.95点的历史新高水平。随后,只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持,那综指后市有望看高一线。当然,若欧美股市继续走软的话,那将会对马股延续涨势有负面的影响。

WALL STREET >>> Pride Salvaged As Bulls Recoup 12000

Greek Deal Deflate The Bears
Stocks resumed Wednesday's late-session selling spree right out of the gate today, as investors continued to jeer the central bank's downwardly revised economic growth estimates. Meanwhile, a surprise surge in first-time jobless claims, as well as a drop in new home sales, only stoked the bearish flames. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was the real driving force behind the bears, after unveiling plans to tap into emergency oil reserves for just the third time in history. The move -- initiated to curb supply disruptions from Libya -- sent crude oil futures to a four-month low, and pressured the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to an early triple-digit deficit.In a relatively rare turn of events, though, it was actually news from overseas that helped take some of the wind out of the bears' sails.

Specifically, Reuters reported that cash-strapped Greece reached an agreement with the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a five-year austerity plan. The eleventh-hour headlines sparked optimism over the fiscal fate of Greece, helping the major market indexes pare most -- or all, in one case -- of their losses by the bell.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,050.00) found itself down more than 200 points in early action, but trimmed its loss to just 59.7 points, or 0.5%, in the final hour of trading. What's more, the blue-chip barometer salvaged its perch atop the 12,000 level, as well as its 10-day moving average. Still, 20 of the Dow's 30 components ended in the red, led by Coca-Cola's (KO) 2.1% drop. On the flip side, Home Depot (HD) paced the nine advancing equities with a gain of about 2.1%, while DuPont (DD) split the difference by finishing flat.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,283.50) also chipped away at its deficit in the last hour of the session, settling just 3.6 points, or 0.3%, lower. Like the Dow, the SPX also managed to elbow its way back atop its 10-day trendline by the close. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,686.75) fared the best of the three, actually clawing its way into the black in late-day trading. By the time the dust settled, the tech-rich COMP tacked on 17.6 points, or 0.7%.

Crude Oil Hit February Lows
Crude futures settled at their lowest level since Feb. 18 today, after the IEA announced a plan to release 60 million barrels of oil to ease supply disruptions from war-torn Libya. The move marks just the third time in history the agency has opted to tap into emergency supplies, the most recent coming in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. 

Against this backdrop, August-dated crude oil futures gave up $4.39, or 4.6%, to end at $91.02 per barrel. Earlier in the session, the front-month contract fell as low as $89.69 per barrel.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Thursday, June 23, 2011

ZLBT Random Stock Picks >>> LION CORP + LION INDS

Technical Comments
Despite the breakout rally on Lion Corp shares yesterday, any further rise towards 31.5sen (61.8%FR) or 33.5sen (50%FR) would be a good selling opportunity ahead of a pullback as technical momentum becomes overbought.


Technical Comments
Similarly, a further rally on Lion Inds towards RM1.90 (38.2%FR) or RM2.02 (23.6%FR) would be attractive to sell prior to profit‐taking pullback, given that the 14‐day RSI already has an overbought reading above 70.


DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

ZLBT Morning Views >>> Bursa Malaysia + Wall Street

Bursa Malaysia : Optimistic Day For KL Stocks
The Malaysian stock market has finished higher now in back-to-back sessions, rising 8 points or 0.5 percent in that span. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index ended just above the 1,566-point plateau. However, traders are bracing for a mild correction to the downside when the market opens on Thursday. due to the DJIA overnite 80.3 points losses. Optimistically, some follow-up momentum of recent sessions should come into play when the local bourse dips as limited selling pressure was evident.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is firmly negative following downbeat economic news from the United States. Airlines figure to lead the markets lower, along with retail stocks and financials - although gold may provide some support. The European and U.S. markets finished under pressure, and the Asian markets also are expected to track to the downside.

The KLCI finished modestly higher on Wednesday following slim gains from the financial shares, industrial issues and plantation stocks.

For the day, the index added 6.56 points or 0.42 percent to finish at 1,567.35 after trading between 1,559.95 and 1,567.35. Volume was 847.12 million shares worth 1.52 billion ringgit. There were 383 decliners and 362 gainers.

Among the actives, Genting Malaysia, Lion Corporation and CIMB Group all finished higher, while KBB Resources and Maybank were unchanged and MAA Holdings and Petronas Chemicals ended lower.

The lead from Wall Street suggests consolidation as stocks came under pressure on Wednesday after showing a lack of direction throughout much of the day. The pullback was partly due to news that the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth.


Wall Street : DJIA Succumbs To 11th Hour Sell-off
The Feds Trimmed Growth Forecast For 2011 & 2012
The central bank occupied the spotlight throughout the session, as a midday interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was followed by an afternoon press briefing with Chairman Ben Bernanke. The FOMC stood pat on rates, to no one's surprise, and confirmed that its $600 billion bond-buying program -- dubbed "QE2" -- is on track to conclude at the end of the month. What's more, the Fed trimmed its 2011 and 2012 growth estimates for the U.S. economy, and simultaneously nudged its core inflation forecasts higher. "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting," admitted Bernanke during his Q&A session. "One way to think about it is that maybe some of the headwinds that have been concerning us -- like weakness in the financial sector, problems in the housing sector, balance sheets and deleveraging issues -- some of these headwinds may be stronger, more persistent than we thought." After spending most of the day churning aimlessly around the breakeven line, the major market indexes responded to Bernanke's cautious comments by dropping decisively lower during the final hour of the session, unceremoniously ending a four-day winning streak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,109.67) ended on a loss of 80.3 points, or 0.7%, as 28 of its 30 components succumbed to the late-day sell-off. Boeing (BA) gave up 2.5% to lead the laggards, while American Express (AXP) and Coca-Cola (KO) were the only two blue chips to close higher. As a result of today's decline, the Dow sacrificed its short-lived foothold above its 20-day moving average -- but the index remains north of both its 10-day trendline and the 12,100 level.

After rising as high as 1,298 shortly after Bernanke started speaking, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,287.14) shed 8.4 points, or 0.7%, to end up sandwiched between its own 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,669.19) kept pace with its peers by losing 18.1 points, or 0.7%, but notched a second straight daily close above its 10-day trendline.



HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

ZLBT FKLI Preview 23 June 2011

FBM KLCI Futures To Challenge New High
The FKLI broke above its consolidation zone of 1543 - 1557 to high of 1569.0 today, highest level since end May, before settling a point lower at 1563.5 on Wednesday. This breakup coupled with MACD showing sign of bullish crossover provided confirmation on the recent uptrend. Stochastic is hovering above 82%+ margin and RSI closing in on the 70 bullish region.
Expect futures to continue its momentum today with support from gains in external markets and the FBM KLCI. The bluechips index climbed 6.56 points by the close. FKLI is expected to continue it's momentum with resistance pegged at its January high of 1579.5. On the down side, support is seen at Tuesday's low of 1557.5.

ZLBT Trade Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on close below 1543.0

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年06月22日 / FBMKLCI 22/06/2011

综合指数 2011年 06月 22日
富时大马综合指数(综指)周三在临收市前上扬,并稍微突破1566点的阻力水平,以1567.35点挂收。由于综指只是稍微突破1566点的水平,因此暂时未能确认突破1566点的阻力水平。无论如何,综指下一道阻力水平落在1576.95点的历史新高水平,支持水平则继续是14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)及L1线的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示,尽管综指周三上扬6.56点,马股总成交量却仍然偏低。这表示投资者对马股还未完全恢复信心,因此继续保持场外观望的态度。严格来说,若综指在马股成交量偏低的状况之下上扬的话,那这一来的涨势,通常难以持续。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续维持在70%水平以上,这表示综指短期走势还是偏强的,直到随机指标失守70%水平为止。

总的来说,马股总成交量虽然继续偏低,但是综指当前的技术展望仍然是处于正面的。综指接下来有望上探1576.95点的历史


新高,但至于综指能否恢复2009年以来的涨势,那重要的关键除了是马股总成交量必须增加以外,就是区域股市的表现不再进一步的偏弱。


祝你好运

ZLBT Random Charts >>> DJIA / FBMKLCI / FKLI / FCPO




HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

ZLBT Random Stock Picks >>> AMEDIA GROUP + RHB CAPITAL

Technical Comments: Asia Media shares broke above the upper Bollinger band (RM0.31) yesterday, suggesting good upside bias towards the 61.8%FR (RM0.34). However, investors may opt to take profit before the share price pause for profit taking correction from the recent rally, given the overbought daily stochastic.

Technical Comments: As for RHB Capital, share price could dip further towards the 30‐day
moving average (RM9.45), with stronger support coming from the 50‐day moving average (RM9.13), given the bearish chart pattern from trend indicators, before regaining buying momentum.


DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

ZLBT Morning Views >>> Bursa Malaysia 21 June 2011

Malaysian Market To Reverse Losses
The Malaysian stock market has ended lower in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day winning streak in which it had gathered more than 10 points or 0.6 percent. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index ended just below the 1,560-point plateau, although now traders are looking for renewed support at the opening of trade on Tuesday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is mixed with an upward bias, although persistent concerns over the Greek debt problem may limit the upside. Property and technology stocks figure to provide support, although financials may weigh. The European markets finished lower and the U.S. bourses ended higher - and the Asian markets are generally tipped to follow the latter lead.
The big news over the weekend was Greece and the 17 nations were unable to come to an agreement to put together a package for that beleaguered country. This agreement has been pushed off yet again until July. Markets both here and Europe initially reacted in a negative fashion but have come back and appear to be regrouping and rethinking the implications of this delay.

The bank stocks however still look sick and the trends are clearly down in this sector.

The Shanghai and Hong Kong indexes are also looking very negative as are most equity indexes around the world.


The only index that is looking positive using our trade technology is the Malaysian index aka FBM KLCI.


The FBMKLCI finished slightly lower on Monday as softness from the financial shares and plantation stocks was limited by support from the industrial issues.

For the day, the index shed 4.24 points or 0.27 percent to finish at 1,559.19 after trading between 1,557.52 and 1,563.66. Volume was 849.81 million shares worth 1.4 billion ringgit. There were 484 decliners and 290 gainers, with 304 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Maybank, CIMB Holdings, RHB Capital and Axiata all finished lower, while Petronas Chemicals was unchanged and Sime Darby ended higher.

The lead from Wall Street is fairly upbeat as stocks moved mostly higher on Monday, rebounding from initial weakness amid easing concerns about the Greek debt crisis. Bargain hunting also contributed to the strength on Wall Street following recent weakness.

HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET : Bluechips Lift DJIA; Bulls Add 76 Points

S&P 500 ended atop its own 10-day trendline for the first time in June 
Stocks initially followed their European comrades into the red, as the Street jeered the lack of a resolution in the Greek bailout saga. Specifically, euro zone leaders gave the debt-strapped nation an ultimatum: cut spending or sacrifice additional emergency loans. However, the bulls eventually reclaimed the throne, as investors expressed optimism ahead of tomorrow's austerity vote in Athens. In addition, a quiet day on the economic front provided little fodder for the bears, which allowed speculators to hone in on a slew of stock-specific celebrations, especially among the blue chips. 

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) notched a win over its 10-day moving average for just the third time since early May, extending its winning streak to three straight sessions. Furthermore, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) -- or the market's "fear index" -- surrendered roughly 8.5%, ending just a hair's breadth south of the closely watched 20 marker.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,080.38) tacked on 76 points, or 0.6%, though its upward momentum stalled in the 12,100 level. Only five of the Dow's 30 blue chips bucked the trend, led by financial concerns Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which each gave up nearly 0.8%. Meanwhile, Caterpillar (CAT) paced the 25 advancing equities, tacking on 2.3% by the close.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,278.36) added almost 6.9 points, or 0.5%, to end atop its own 10-day trendline for the first time in June. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,629.66) ended with a gain of 13.2 points, or 0.5%, but continues to stare up at its 10-day moving average, currently located in the 2,650 ballpark.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,174 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 11,717 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 12,119.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,174.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 11,862.
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 11,717. 


HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Saturday, June 18, 2011

WALL STREET : DJIA Reclaims 12,000 on Hope for Greece

Dow Rebounds; Halt 6-week losing streak
 Stocks bolted into the black at the opening bell today, after encouraging signs from across the pond eased concerns about the fate of debt-strapped Greece. Most notably, the Street cheered the country's appointment of a new finance minister, as well as Germany and France's united front to help resolve their neighbor's debt crisis. The news sparked optimism ahead of a weekend summit of euro zone finance ministers, and helped keep a downwardly revised growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the proverbial backburner. In the same vein, a ho-hum report on consumer sentiment took some wind out of the bulls' sails, though a stronger-than-anticipated improvement in the Conference Board's index of leading indicators helped to keep the bears at bay. 


Against this backdrop, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped their six-week losing streak, though an abysmal outlook from Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) kept the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite (COMP) wallowing in the red.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,004.36) pared its triple-digit lead in afternoon trading, but still ended with a gain of 42.8 points, or 0.4% -- marking its second finish north of 12,000 this week. Only seven of the Dow's 30 blue chips bucked the trend, with tech titan Intel Corp. (INTC) leading the black sheep with a loss of 1.1%. On the flip side, AT&T (T), Microsoft (MSFT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and IBM (IBM) ended in a four-way tie for first, with each stock adding 1.1% by the close. For the week, the Dow advanced 0.4%, halting its six-week losing streak.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,271.50) also ended off its session highs, but tacked on 3.9 points, or 0.3%, when all was said and done. Like the Dow, the SPX snapped its six-week journey lower, eking out a week-over-week surplus of less than 0.1%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,616.48) left the party early to end near a session low, giving up 7.2 points, or 0.3%, by the close. For the week, the COMP lost 1%, marking its fifth straight week in the red.

Crude oil tanked to 4 month low
Crude futures backpedaled to a four-month nadir today, after a downwardly revised global growth forecast from the IMF exacerbated concerns about waning demand. By the close, July-dated crude oil futures swallowed a loss of $1.94, or 2%, to settle at $93.01 per barrel -- black gold's lowest settlement price since mid-February, before political turmoil in the Middle East propelled the commodity higher. For the week, the front-month contract shed 6.3%, marking its heftiest week-over-week percentage loss since the week ended May 6.
HAPPY WEEKEND

Friday, June 17, 2011

FCPO Fundamentals + Technicals 17 June 2011

Fundamental
Palm oil slumped to five weeks low yesterday on concerns inventories, already at sixteen months high, would rise further to level above 2 mil tonnes. Investors worried that higher export demand will not be enough to offset improving output as the tropical oil recover from its low production yield period during the past two years. Overnight crude oil rebounded on higher demand forecast from IEA and better jobless claims and housing data in US.

Soy oil however settled lower in tandem with soybeans amid sell off in boarder grains market as external uncertainties prompted investors to reduce positions in riskier assets. Expect futures continue to trade under pressure today weighed by spillover weakness from soy oil as well as absence of fresh supportive factors from local front.


Technicals
Futures erased all its current week’s gain and settled at day’s low to conjure a long black candle. Daily RSI is posing towards oversold territory but unlikely to create attention just yet as MACD bearish divergence likely to haunt investors along with expectation of higher stocks and production.

Look for futures to trade lower to test its June’s low of 3148 with support and resistance pegged at 3145 and 3250.


1st support level 3145
1st resistance level 3250

ZLBT Trade Strategy
Aggressive trade may short with stop on close above 3360.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

FCPO >>> Palm oil drops as stocks seen hitting 2 mln T


* Exports growing but not as fast as stocks
* High stocks point to palm widening discount to soyoil

Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Thursday as traders cut back on worries that stocks could grow beyond two million tonnes this month.  Although orders for the tropical oil have grown in response to higher output in Malaysia and a widening discount to competing soyoil, stocks are expected to rise above a 16-month high of 1.92 million tonnes hit in May.

If in the next few months Malaysian stocks rise above the record 2.3 million tonnes last seen in November 2008, palm oil prices could extend its 14 percent loss notched so far this year.

   "I think 3,000 ringgit needs to come, sooner or later. We are on track for declines and that is helped by weaker crude oil and soyoil as well," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

The new benchmark September CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 2.4% lower at MYR3,193 a metric ton, its lowest level since May 6.

"If [palm oil] stocks continue to rise, I think crude palm oil prices are likely to fall to $950/ton by the end of the year," said a commodities broker in Mumbai.

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said June 1-15 Malaysian palm oil exports jumped 16.2 percent to 699,674 tonnes from a month ago. 

Demand was driven mostly by China as well as the Indian subcontinent, which has a sizable Muslim population, and needs to restock ahead of Ramadan where elaborate dinners follow fasting during the day.

Part of this has to do with main cooking oil ingredient -- refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein -- widening its discount to competing soyoil to $90 per tonne, up from $80 last week. 

U.S. soyoil for July delivery dropped 0.4 percent on weaker crude and improved crop weather for soybeans. 

The most active January 2012 soybean oil contract  on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.5 percent. 

HAPPY TRADING

CPO Fundamental + Technical Midday Outlook

Fundamental
Palm oil settled higher yesterday on encouraging June 1 - 15 days export data and expectation for export to further improve towards Ramadan festive month. Nevertheless, gains were capped by lingering concerns over escalating production and inventories coupled with uncertainties in external markets. Overnight crude oil slumped to settle at the lowest since February as European debt crisis and worse than expected manufacturing data in US outweighed falling crude stocks to pressure prices lower. Soy oil however managed to end higher in tandem with soybeans with investors shifting focus back to uncertainties in soy planting session. Expect futures to trade under pressure today along with weakness in external markets while investors likely to stay sideline in the absence of fresh supportive factors.
Technicals
Futures continued the rebound from its one month low and traded higher to form the second higher high, higher low long white candle. Diverging MACD still persist and likely to keep sellers safeguard the resistance of 3335. Technically, look for futures to trade range bound with support and resistance pegged at 3235 and 3335 respectively.


ZLBT Trade Strategy
Aggressive trade may short with stop on close above 3360

20 Middle Bollinger Band Stocks 4ur Perusal


*Note : To qualify in this list above, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for shortterm BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL. 
Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.
DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

HAPPY TRADING