ZLBT Chats

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Sell in May, Go Away? No Way

More likely >>> Buy in June ; Stocks get prune
Stocks in New York rallied in the final minutes of May trading perhaps due to some end-of-month window-dressing, after crude oil settled above $66 a barrel, the dollar continued to weaken and investors prepared to say goodbye to old General Motors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 96.53 points, or 1.2%, to 8500.33, while the S&P 500 was 12.31 points, or 1.4% higher, at 919.14. The Nasdaq was better by 22.54, or 1.3%, at 1774.33.
The late-day rally was partly fund managers readjusting portfolios for the end of the month, says Anu Sharma, managing director of the Market Intelligence Desk at Nasdaq OMX. Some of the movement also could have also been due to index managers, as today was the MSCI semiannual rebalance, and today's market caps will be used for the Russell rebalance the last day of June, he says.
For the week, the Dow was up 2.7%, the S&P 500 up 3.6%, and the Nasdaq higher by 4.9%. The expression "sell in May and go away" did not hold: The Dow was up 4.1%, the S&P 500 was higher by 5.3%, and the Nasdaq added 3.3% for the month.
Crude oil continued to rise, gaining $1.23 to settle at $66.31 a barrel, a day after data showed that inventories fell again last week, and after OPEC decided to keep its production targets unchanged, reportedly eyeing an uptick in demand. May could represent the largest monthly gain in oil futures in nearly a decade.
"The market has been signaling better demand and tighter supplies to come, and it has hard evidence, not just in the raw data but in the other macro and political factors that have been played out," writes Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Alaron Energy.

Although institutional money came into the market in the beginning of the new quarter, not a lot was put to work in the second half of April and in most of May, says Nasdaq's Sharma, calling it a trader's market. "It's starting to feel like things are moving sideways in the last month," says James Holtzman, financial adviser with Legend Financial Advisors. "You still hear a lot of optimism, but we're not really seeing it in the numbers. What it comes down to is that we're not out of the woods yet, the problems don't clear [in a] two-month rally."

But the positive is that there seem to be fairly tight trading ranges, says Nasdaq's Sharma. "It gives a sense of comfort that things will flatten out a bit, and we may not see that huge drop-off that a lot of people thought we would see," he says

Stocks overseas were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's Dax were higher by 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively, after paring gains from earlier in the session. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

OIL and GAS Companies >>> Industry PE Comparison

BT's regulars and silent readers are gonna love this PE Table.
Note : Prices shown are 28 May 09 closed
Same time last year 2008 Crude Oil was $130+ per barrel
Crude oil signal emission >>> BUY!!!

Attn : ZL is gonna charge all O&G traders who won >>> 2 sticks Gudang Garam per read. TQVM :D

Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop

Oil & gas defy recession; crude hurdled $66 a barrel
Crude oil rose, capping its biggest monthly gain in a decade, as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed above $66 a barrel to a six-month high as the dollar declined beyond $1.41 against the euro for the first time this year, making raw materials such as oil and gold an attractive alternative investment. Prices also gained as U.S., and Asian indicators pointed to a global economic recovery.

The predictions for just how high oil can reach this year, just like 2008, continue to creep upward just five months removed from crude priced around $32 per barrel.
The gasoline-pump panic of 2008 has yet to surface, but that's not to say there haven't been some double-takes.

But a gallon of gas is still $1.485 below the price a year ago and that, at its heart, is why you are unlikely to see the same price spikes this time around.
Crude prices have spiked 30 percent this month, enough to give anyone vertigo. But the pain is relative.
At this time last year, crude prices were brushing up against $130.
While crude has risen fast through May, we're still around $66.
For gas prices to hit $3, crude would need to go to about $100 a barrel, well above even the highest projections this year of $70 to $75.

“The devaluation of the dollar is leading to the revaluation of energy and commodities in general,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “This is a monetary-based rally. The market is focused on the future and ignoring the fundamentals of the present day crude-oil supply and demand picture.”

Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.23, or 1.9 percent, to $66.31 a barrel at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 4. Oil advanced 30 percent in May, the biggest monthly increase since March 1999, when Asia was recovering from the 1997-1998 financial crisis. Prices climbed 7.5 percent this week and 49 percent this year.

Crude oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 359,775 contracts as of 3:11 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 501,771 contracts yesterday, 0.6 percent higher than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.12 million contracts. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.
The U.S. currency had its biggest monthly decline against the euro this year. The dollar dropped 1.4 percent to $1.4134 versus the single European currency.
Lower Supplies
Prices are also rising because of declining U.S. inventories. Crude-oil supplies fell 5.41 million barrels to 363.1 million last week, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. It was the biggest decrease since September. The drop left inventories 27 percent greater than the five-year average, up from a 23 percent surplus a week earlier.

Oil’s rally is driven by improving sentiment about the global economy and isn’t supported by demand, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri said today. Global crude stockpiles remain very high, El-Badri told reporters at a briefing in Vienna. Still, prices may reach $70 to $75 a barrel by the end of the year, partly because speculators are returning to commodity markets, he said.

“The drop in U.S. inventories is evidence that the OPEC production cuts are starting to bite,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, in Winchester, Massachusetts. “There’s some optimism about the economy, which is driving the oil market. It’s important to keep in mind that demand has shown absolutely no sign of recovery.”

6491 KFIMA >>> Better performance

Check out KFIMA FYE 09 profits >>> 50%+ better than 2008.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 29日 /Composite Index 29/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 29日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger MidBand)及T2上升趋势线反弹,所以T2线及布林中频带依然是综指的动态支持水平,综指阻力水平则继续是1053点胜图自动费氏线。




Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI was supported by the T2 line as well as the Bollinger Middle Band again, suggesting that the KLCI immediate outlook has not turned bearish. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 10%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the KLCI is likely to move sideways or some risk of a technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 64.3%, bring the volume back above the 40-day VMA level. However, in order for the KLCI to regain its strength, volume has to remain above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded from 70% level, and therefore, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned weak. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, there is a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend.

The rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band and T2 is important for they temporary keep the KLCI from turning weaker. However, in order for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, the we should have the following criteria, which are the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as an increased of volume above the 40-day VMA level.

Friday, May 29, 2009

KLCI Rally Resumes 29 May 2009

The local stock market’s rally resumed on May 29 after a hesitant start. Despite overnight gains on Wall Street, most local investors started the day on a cautious footing, unsure if the two-month old rally will resume or peter out. This follows Thursday’s lacklustre performance as investors were unnerved by the larger than expected 6.2% GDP decline for Malaysia in the first quarter of 2009.

The KLCI started trading on Friday higher, but quickly fell into negative territory, where it stayed for half the morning session. However, investors regained their confidence in the afternoon session, sending the benchmark index up as much as 17 points at its intra-day high.
Late profit-taking activities, however, trimmed the gains to just 2.9 points, with the KLCI ending at 1,044.1. Investors may have decided to lock in some gains ahead of a number of key US economic data due out later on May 29, including the second round of first quarter GDP estimates and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Market breadth was positive with advancing stocks beating declining ones by a 3-to-2 margin. Volume expanded from Thursday’s lackluster 1.08 billion shares to 1.77 billion shares.

Investors took their cues from a number of factors, including a rally in regional markets, rising crude oil and palm oil prices. Benchmark indices in Japan and Hong Kong rose to their highest levels in eight months. Palm oil prices rose further to above RM2,500 per tonne.

Crude oil prices have also rallied strongly in the past week, rising to above US$65 per barrel as the market adjusted to shrinking supplies after a spate of rising inventories earlier. Last week, US oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week. This increased interest in domestic oil and gas stocks, with KNM, SAAG and Scomi among the top actives of the day. Major gainers include Tenaga, Sime Darby and Parkson. Losers include BAT, PPB and YTL Corp.

Crude Oil Production & Inventories

Crude Oil just hit another new high 15 mins ago before this chart was published
US crude oil inventories are falling — attributable to both declining imports and rising consumption. Consumption above 15 million barrels/day would be a sign that economic activity is recovering.

Regional markets up at midday 29 May 2009

Most regional markets were up at midday on Friday buoyed by a report that Japan’s industrial output grew the most in 56 years in April.
Japan’s production experienced better-than-expected growth of 5.2% from March boosted by a rebound in exports.
At 12.30pm, the KLCI rose 2.85 points (0.27%) to 1,044.09 while Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 1.10% to 2,318.22. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.03% to 9,448.10, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.46% to 17,967.31 and South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.47% to 1,385.56.

At Bursa Malaysia, 224 counters were up, 258 counters were down and 198 were traded unchanged. There were 827.45 million shares done with a total value of RM811.04 million.

Among the heavyweights, Tenaga added 20 sen to RM7.80, Maybank rose 5 sen to RM5.20, TM fell 8 sen to RM2.65 and Genting slipped 5 sen to RM5.40.
Plantation stocks Sime was up 10 sen to RM6.85, KLK added 20 sen to RM11.70, PPB rose 10 sen to RM10.90 and Batu Kawan slipped 10 sen to RM8.55. Malaysia Airports was down 12 sen to RM3.48, RHB Capital lost 12 sen to RM4.08, BAT fell 25 sen to RM43.50, Boustead dipped 22 sen to RM4.24. Oil-related stocks KNM added 7.5 sen to 88 sen, Scomi rose 2.5 sen to 70 sen and SAAG was up 1 sen to 33.5 sen.

KNM SEALINK Dow Futures Crude Oil Futures UPDATED


Oil gushes above $65 ; Dow went for a joyride

Stocks Lifted by Oils, Financials
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 103.78, or 1.3 percent, to 8,403.80.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 13.77, or 1.5 percent, to 906.83.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 20.71, or 1.2 percent, to 1,751.79.
For the week:
The Dow is up 126.48, or 1.5 percent.
The S&P is up 19.83, or 2.2 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 59.78, or 3.5 percent.
For the year:
The Dow is down 372.59, or 4.3 percent.
The S&P is up 3.58, or 0.4 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 174.76, or 11.1 percent.

Stocks in New York moved more than 1% higher Wednesday, fueled by oil stocks and financials, while investors also digested a Treasury auction. Oil and gas stocks were also on the rise after OPEC decided to keep its production targets unchanged, reportedly eyeing an uptick in demand.

Financials were among the stronger stocks on the Dow, with JPMorgan Chase(JPM Quote) rising 5.7% and Bank of America(BAC Quote) adding 3.6% after it detailed plans to further increase capital levels by exchanging 200 million shares of common stock for preferred.

Crude oil futures rose $1.63 to settle at $65.08 a barrel. "Oil prices are up, breaching $64 per barrel, in the aftermath of the OPEC meeting where a crude oil price 'target' of $75-$80/barrel by year-end was discussed," writes Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "If achieved through further OPEC oil supply cuts, this would cause a major relapse in the global economy's feeble recovery hopes for 2010."

It didn't hurt that crude oil inventory levels, which are still 18% above the same time last year, fell sharply last week. Stockpiles were down by 5.4 million barrels, vs. expectations for a 1.8 billion barrel build. Gasoline inventories, on the other hand, fell less than expected, by 600,000 barrels to 203.4 million, but are 2.4% below a year prior.

Stocks in Europe were widely lower, with London's FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's Dax down by 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei gained 0.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed for the session.

Gold gained $8 to settle at $962.80 an ounce, and the dollar was stronger vs. the pound and euro and slightly weaker against the yen.

7164 KNM >>> Calculative OFF Major Support

NOTE : Trendlines, Support & Resistance are just marking guides as per shown in their respective charts and are still subjective at best. There are NO sure things. As much as resistance are there to be broken; support are also there to be taken out.

Chartist are therefore, reminded to impliment TA with a touch of common sense. TQVM


Thursday, May 28, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 28/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 28日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/05/2009
On Thursday, the KLCI tested the T2 line, with an intra-day low reaching 1037.09 points. However, it was precisely supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and rebounded to close at 1041.24 points, down 6.44 points. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the support for the KLCI, while the 1053 is still the resistance. (Study A)
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expand, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, or even a chance for a technical correction. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggests that the KLCI is now preparing for a new movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.4%, with volume now below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is quiet, thus suggesting a lack of inflow of fresh capital. Therefore, with volume remains below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to move sideways or with some downside biased.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is testing the 70% level, if it should break below 70% level, it would means a beginning of a technical correction. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a short term weakening movement for the KLCI.

As the KLCI repeated resisted by the 1053 Fibonacci Retracement, it started to consolidate amid the absence of positive news. However, this does not mean an end to the uptrend yet, for the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded. Generally, we have to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width should expand, then only one to determine whether the KLCI would resume its uptrend or to turn weaker by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 5月 28日
综合指数稍微跳空向下开市,一度下跌至全日最低点的1037.09点,惟综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)上获得扶持而反弹(参考箭头A),按日下跌6.44点或0.6%。如图所示T2的上升趋势线与布林中频带重叠,所以支持力量倍增,换句话说这成为了综指接下来的重要支持线,综指的阻力水平则依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。




Final Single Tier Dividend 4 Sen

Entitlement Details:
A Final Single Tier Dividend of 4 sen per share subject to the approval of
Shareholders at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting.
Entitlement Type:
Final Dividend
Entitlement Date and Time:
15/07/2009 04:00 PM
Year Ending/Period Ending/Ended Date:
EX Date:

Payment Date:
Interest Payment Period:

Rights Issue Price:

Trading of Rights Start On:

Trading of Rights End On:

Stock Par Value: RM0.50

Share transfer book & register of members will be closed from to (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlements
A Depositor shall qualify for the entitlement in respect of:
- Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before 15/07/2009 04:00 PM in respect of ordinary transfers.
- Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before in respect of express transfers.
- Securities deposited into the Depositor's Securities Account before in respect of securities exempted from mandatory deposit.
- Securities not withdrawn from the Depositor's Securities Account as at .
- Securities bought on KLSE on a cum entitlement basis according to the Rules of the KLSE.


􀂃 We are attaching a 10% discount to our CY09 target PER of 12x to fairly value Perisai at RM1.04. The migration of the shares to Main Board in June will improve its appeal among institutional investors as it is grossly undervalued based on its CY09 PER of 5.8x vs. sector PER of 8.6x. It is the cheapest oil and gas stock under our coverage. Maintain Buy.
􀂃 Perisai’s 1QFY09 net profit of RM16mn came within our forecast RM15mn to RM17mn. It could have been much higher at RM18mn if not for the RM3.33 losses incurred by its 60% subsidiary Corro-Shield.
􀂃 The 1QFY09 net profit is higher than the RM15.2mn reported net profit for the whole of 2008. The spectacular performance was made possible by the strong full quarter contribution from Enterprise 3, its pipe laying vessel that started operation in November last year.
􀂃 EBITDA margin improved dramatically to 69.2% from 17.6% a year ago, thanks to the pipe laying vessel, which is on a bareboat charter to TL Offshore at a day rate US$95k/day, and the SAT system that become operational in April 2009

􀂃 We believe something exciting is brewing behind the scene based on the company’s recent announcement to issue a US$10mn nominal value of zero coupon 2-year redeemable convertible bonds (RCB). It has a taker for the issue in TAEL One Partners Ltd of Singapore, which is willing to subscribe for it at a 12% discount to its nominal value. This translates into an annual interest rate of 6.6%.The conversion price has not been fixed and Perisai has the option to redeem up to US$5mn at 100% of the nominal value, which will minimize the issuance of new shares.

􀂃 We suspect Perisai is raising the money to commercialize some of its promising technologies that it has been working with in the past few years such as the Alpha Prime Module and SIRPS. The SIRPS has undergone a few modifications and known as MOPSU currently. The license for it is held by Kingtime International Limited that gives Perisai first right of refusal to acquire a strategic investment in MOPSU and Perisai is evaluating its options currently.

􀂃 By acquiring the rights to MOPSU, Perisai has the option to engage its Alpha Prime
as a topside module on this technologically advanced cost efficient mobile offshore drilling, production and storage unit that could potentially save US$100mn per field.