TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 12日 / Composite Index 12/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 12日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数的布林频带（Bollinger Bands）依然没有明显打开，这表示综指目前依然处于巩固的格局中，所以综指周二继续横摆，微跌2.48点或0.2%。综指阻力水平还是1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线，支持水平则继续落在200天移动平均线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量的确明显的减退了（减少42.7%），这是典型成交量在巩固格局的反应，这是一些投资者在市场没有新的利好因素带动或指引之前保持在场外观望所致的。无论如何，成交量仍然达到40天的平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场整体的交投还是属于活跃的，这是能为综指目前的投资气氛保温。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于70%水平以上，表示虽然综指横摆巩固，但短期的走势还是属于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

总的来说综指在受到套利的活动下导致综指进入巩固格局，从技术分析的角度来看的话，综指目前以横摆、低幅度的波动巩固，就是最好的调整。综指接下来的重要关键在于布林中频带成为一道有力的扶持水平，若综指能够在布林中频带反弹的话，届时有望恢复上扬格局，后市看高一线；反之若综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指将有开始转弱的风险。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 12/05/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded clearly, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. On Tuesday, the KLCI was down 2.48 points or 0.2%, with the resistance remains at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement. Supports for the KLCI are still at the 200-day MA and the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 42.7%, which is a typical characteristic of the KLCI during a consolidation or a technical correction. Nonetheless, the volume remains above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still actively participated, thus the KLCI positive sentiment is expected to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% despite the KLCI consolidation, therefore, the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased.

Due to profit taking activities, the KLCI started to consolidate. From the technical analysis point of view, the current sideways, low-fluctuation movement of the KLCI is the best consolidation manner.

At the moment, support at the Bollinger Middle Band is critical, for if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that the KLCI would continue its uptrend. Otherwise, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI would turn weak.