TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 06/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 06日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/05/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 22%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and the KLCI ended 15.09 points higher to close at 1023.96 points. The expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the immediate movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

Supports for the KLCI are still at 200-day MA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, while the resistance is at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.2%, marking a new high since 4th of April, 2007. The increased of volume has lifted the market sentiment as more fresh buying in the market, and therefore, as long as the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the current positive market sentiment is likely to sustain.

As circled at C, the Stochastic continued rising, breaking above 90% level, which is a short term over-bought region. If the Stochastic should start falling after hitting 100% level, it would be a signal suggesting a technical correction is likely to take place. Nevertheless, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

KLCI making new higher, volume breaking 2 years new high, and short term over-bought signals from the Stochastic, these are actually the characteristic of a bullish trend. Of course, a risk of technical correction is inevitable, but as long as the KLCI is well supported by the dynamic support (Bollinger Middle Band or the 14, 21, 31 EMA), the uptrend is likely to continue.

综合指数 2009年 5月 06日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开22%，而综合指数始终处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指扬升15.09点，再度创下7个月的新高。接下来只要布林频带继续打开的话，综指将有望维持目前上扬的格局，直到布林频带开始收窄为止。综指阻力水平依然是1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线，支持水平则落在200天移动平均线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加32.2%，写下自2007年4月4日来的新高，成交量也继续的处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。成交量持续的增加继续扶持综指上扬，这表示市场有更多新的买盘流入，这不但吸纳套利的卖压，也进一步推高综指，所以只要成交量能继续保持在40天平均值 以上的话，这将有助于综指维持现有上扬格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续上扬并且突破90%的水平，这表示综指短期的走势强劲，接下来若随机指标到达100%水平后开始下跌的话，那将是综指技术调整的讯号，无论如何，只要随机指标一日处于70%水平以上的话，综指短期的走势还是属于强势中。

综指周三创新高、成交量也写下两年新高，加上随机指标再次出现短期超买（Over-bought）的讯号，这都综指处于涨势的或短期牛市的特征。无论如何，综指还是有技术调整的风险，惟只要综指在调整后还是获得动态支持水平（布林中频带或14、21、31天加权移动平均线）扶持的话，那么综指涨势还是有望持续。