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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 11/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 11日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/05/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width of the KLCI only expanded 2%, from the previous 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is beginning to consolidate, while only waiting for the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width to confirm such signal. Resistance for the KLCI remain at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement while the 200-day MA is still the support together with the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 18.3%, marked another new high. The increased of volume means more participation, but since the KLCI is consolidating, the high volume on Monday is actually viewed as a stronger selling pressure caused by profit taking activities while the KLCI is closer to its strong resistance.

As circled at C, despite some profit taking activities, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, suggesting that the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70 level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.
From the technical point of view, if the KLCI should consolidate with lower volume, it would be a healthy sign.
However, the KLCI is not moving sideways with increasing volume at record level, this is implying that the selling pressure is relatively stronger and the risk of a technical correction is inevitable.
Nevertheless, should the KLCI starts a technical correction, the first target will be the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance of a resume of its uptrend.
On the other hand, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI would turn negative.
综合指数 2009年 5月 11日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数的布林频带(Bollinger Ban)打开幅度再度减少,综指则继续横摆,按日微跌1.28点,这表示综指开始进入巩固格局,正等待布林频带收窄来确认巩固的讯号。综指阻力水平依然是1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线,支持水平则继续是200天移动平均线及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持水平。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加18.3%,再创新高。虽然说成交量增加代表交投活跃,但由于综指将要进入巩固的格局,过高的成交量将显得市场卖压增加,这也是因为综指很接近强大阻力水平所致,所以这将增加综指出现技术调整的风险。

如图中C圈所示,尽管综指面临套利的卖压,随机指标依然维持在70%水平以上,这表示综指短期还是属于强势中,若综指跌破70%水平的话,那将是综指出现技术调整的讯号。

从技术分析的角度来看,若出现调整或巩固时若成交量减退的话,一般视为健康的调整,综指两次横摆巩固不过成交量都是偏高,这表示综指已经遇上较强的阻力水平,所以套利活动增加导致卖压沉重。
当综指出现调整时,综指的第一个目标将是布林中频带的动态支持水平,若综指能够在布林中频带继续获得扶持反弹的话,综指是有望恢复上扬格局。相反的,若综指出现调整时跌破布林中频带的话,综指将有转弱的风险

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