由于美国道琼指数隔夜上扬超过190点，这使到综合指数一度开高，上扬至1059.88点，惟市场卖压继续涌现，导致综指回软，按日反而下跌3.95点或0.4%。综指目前的阻力水平依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是落在布林中频带及T2的动态支持水平。如图中箭头A所示，布林频带打开幅度从12%减至4%，这暗示布林频带有收窄的先兆，所以综指有进入调整巩固的格局，若综指出现技术调整时，综指的第一个下调目标将是布林中频带这动态支持线。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度减少9.4%，这使到成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场开始缺乏足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压，所以接下来若成交量继续低于40天的成交量平均值的话，那综指将继续巩固甚至转弱的风险。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续下调，不过却未跌破70%的水平，这表示综指短期依然属于上扬的格局中，但却有技术调整的迹象，无论如何若随机指标跌破70%水平的话，那将是综指短期技术调整开始的讯号。由于市场成交量再度萎缩，综指始终未能突破1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线，再加上布林频带有收窄的迹象，所以综指有进入巩固或技术调整的风险。无论如何，布林频带收窄也表示综指将酝酿一个新的走势（巩固），因为必须要等到布林频带重新打开时，才能确认综指摆脱调整巩固后的新趋势。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 27/05/2009
Due to the over-night gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI opened higher on Wednesday with an intra-day high reaching 1059.88 points. However, the KLCI soon started falling and ended the day with a lost of 3.95 points. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI remains at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still T2 line and Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 4%, from the previous day of 12%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting, thus the KLCI is about to consolidate or to have a technical correction. Generally, the first target of the correction is the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 9.4%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is insufficient, thus the KLCI failed to break above the 1053 Fibonacci Retracement. If volume should remain below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to stay weak.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 9.4%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is insufficient, thus the KLCI failed to break above the 1053 Fibonacci Retracement. If volume should remain below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to stay weak.As circled at C, the Stochastic continues to fall on Wednesday, but still above the 70% level. This shows that the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish, but with a chance of a technical correction. Nevertheless, the Stochastic has to break below 70% level in order to signal a beginning of a technical correction.
Despite opening higher on Wednesday, the KLCI failed to break above the 1053 Fibonacci Retracement amid the lack of market participation. With the Bollinger Bands Width likely to contract, the KLCI is about to have its technical correction. Nevertheless, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width would also suggests that the KLCI is now preparing for a new movement. 
No comments:
Post a Comment