TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 26/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/05/2009
Despite having an intra-day high reaching 1057.42 points, the KLCI closed 1.51 lower at 1051.63 points. Therefore, the 1053 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the T2 line and Bollinger Middle Band are still the dynamic supports for the KLCI.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 12%, from the previous 24%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a technical correction or a consolidation for the KLCI, and usually the first target of the consolidation would be the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 21%, while barely above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market volume is not substantial to help the KLCI in breaking above the 1053 resistance. If volume should remain lower, the KLCI is likely to move sideways with some downside biased.

As circled at C, the Stochastic started falling after breaking above 90% level, which implies that the technical correction is likely to take place. However, the Stochastic has to break below 70% level to signal a beginning of a technical correction.

Due to lower market volume, the KLCI failed to break above the 1053, suggesting that the inflow of fresh buying interest is not enough to withstand the selling pressure at the 1053 resistance. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, the KLCI would consolidate again.

综合指数 2009年 5月 26日

综合指数一度上扬至1057.42点的新高水平，惟综指仍然未能摆脱1053点的阻力，以1051.63点挂收，按日微跌1.51点，这表示综指的阻力依然是1053的胜图自动费氏阻力线，支持水平则是布林中频带及T2线的动态支持水平。
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Ban）打开的幅度从24%减至12%，这表示布林频带有开始收窄的迹象；若布林频带开始收窄的话，那是综指进入巩固格局或技术调整的讯号，通常综指调整巩固的第一个目标将是布林中频带，这就是常常提到的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少21%，不过成交量还是达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场整体的交投还算活跃的，但却不足于促使综指突破1053点的阻力水平。无论如何，若成交量接下来继续萎缩的话，那综指将会倾向于调整巩固。

如图中C 圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在近100%水平开始下滑，这表示综指短期有出现技术调整的迹象，无论如何，随机指标必须跌破70%的水平，才能确认综指技术调整的讯号。
总的来说，综指虽然一度突破1053点的水平，但由于市场缺乏足够的承接力（成交量）来吸纳在阻力水平涌现的卖压，综指最终还是未能成功站稳在1053点以上。如图所示，由于布林频带打开的幅度减低，所以接下来若布林频带开始收窄的话，那综指出现调整巩固的格局。