TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 15日 / Composite Index 15/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 15日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数的布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄（-41%），这表示综指依然未摆脱横摆巩固的僵局，综指按日微扬2.22点或0.2%。如图所示，综指还未返回布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，惟布林频带目前正在收窄，所以综指才幸免大幅度下跌。综指当前的阻力水平为1053点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是1000点的心理水平及200天的移动平均线

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如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度减退23.2%，但依然维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场的交投活跃，有足够的承接力量。无论如何，成交量减退是综指调整巩固的典型状况。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续下滑，并且稍微跌破50%水平，这表示综指短期有转弱的倾向，惟必须等到随机指标跌破30%水平，才能确认综指短期转弱的讯号。换句话说，若随机指标能在近期内重返70%水平以上的话，综指才有望恢复上扬格局。

总的来说，虽然综指稍微跌破布林中频带，不过布林频带还是处于收窄的格局，所以综指并未出现下跌的趋势。通常当布林频带收窄时，技术辅助指标（Secondary Indicators）如随机指标的讯号都会显得过敏，所以分析还是以主要指标（Primary Indicator）如布林频带、移动平均线及图形（Chart Patterns）为主，这意味着投资者接下来必须密切关注布林频带的变化。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/05/2009

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 41%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, while closing 2.22 points higher on Friday. Meanwhile, as indicated by A, the KLCI failed to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, however, with the Bollinger Bands Width remains contracted, the KLCI outlook has not turned bearish. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement while supports are still at 1000 mark followed by the 200-day MA.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 23.2%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is still actively participated. Generally, it is normal to see a decline of volume as the KLCI is consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic ended lower, breaking slightly below the 50% level, suggesting that the KLCI short term is about to turn weak. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would signal a short term bearish movement for the KLCI.
Despite the KLCI is staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI has not turned bearish because the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded. While the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signals from the secondary indicators like the Stochastic might be over-sensitive, and therefore, the priority of the analysis should be at the chart patterns and the primary indicators such as the Bollinger Bands and the Moving Average.