TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 28/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 28日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/05/2009
On Thursday, the KLCI tested the T2 line, with an intra-day low reaching 1037.09 points. However, it was precisely supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and rebounded to close at 1041.24 points, down 6.44 points. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the support for the KLCI, while the 1053 is still the resistance. (Study A)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expand, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, or even a chance for a technical correction. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggests that the KLCI is now preparing for a new movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.4%, with volume now below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is quiet, thus suggesting a lack of inflow of fresh capital. Therefore, with volume remains below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to move sideways or with some downside biased.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is testing the 70% level, if it should break below 70% level, it would means a beginning of a technical correction. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a short term weakening movement for the KLCI.

As the KLCI repeated resisted by the 1053 Fibonacci Retracement, it started to consolidate amid the absence of positive news. However, this does not mean an end to the uptrend yet, for the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded. Generally, we have to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width should expand, then only one to determine whether the KLCI would resume its uptrend or to turn weaker by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 5月 28日

综合指数稍微跳空向下开市，一度下跌至全日最低点的1037.09点，惟综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）上获得扶持而反弹（参考箭头A），按日下跌6.44点或0.6%。如图所示T2的上升趋势线与布林中频带重叠，所以支持力量倍增，换句话说这成为了综指接下来的重要支持线，综指的阻力水平则依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带周四打开的幅度减至0%，这表示综指有开始进入巩固的迹象。换句话说，若布林频带接下来收窄的话，那综指将有技术调整的风险，无论如何，布林频带收窄也代表综指正酝酿着一个新的走势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量下滑25.4%，这使到成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示市场的交投淡静的，所以市场能承受的卖压也减弱，通常若成交量保持低迷的话，那综指的走势将倾向于调整甚至走软的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在周四继续下跌，目前在试探70%的水平。接下来若随机指标跌破70%水平的话，那综指短期将进入技术调整的格局，若随机指标跌破30%水平的话，综指将形成短期下跌的趋势。

综指多次在1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线遇阻后，加上市场缺乏新的利好因素，所以综指进入调整巩固的格局。虽然这并不代表涨势就此结束，因为布林频带依然没有打开，总的来说，接下来若布林频带开始收窄代表综指进入调整巩固的格局，通常综指的后市要在布林频带再度开始时才能确认，换句话说，那时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将成为综指下一个趋势的领航灯。