TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 05/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 05日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 05/05/2009

Due to the 2.6% gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Asian markets are opening higher. The KLCI opened higher at 1020.13 points and soon profit taking activities kicked in and the KLCI retreated and tested the 1000 point level, losing most of the early gains. However, the KLCI managed to rebound from the 1000 level, closing the day at 1008.87 points, down marginally 0.49 points. This shows that the 1000 mark is still the support for the KLCI, while other supports are at the 200-day MA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 14%, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band. This shows that the current movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand, more up side room is expected for the KLCI. If the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8.5%, suggesting some increased of selling pressure but still with strong buying interests. Therefore, the market overall is still very active. Generally, provided that the market volume is above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to sustain its current bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic started falling but still remained above the 70% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

Generally, the market was slightly over-reacted as the KLCI suddenly opened higher, and therefore, some selling pressure is seen. Nevertheless, the KLCI uptrend remains intact, and as long as the KLCI is well supported by the 200-day MA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the uptrend of the KLCI is likely to continue.

综合指数 2009年 5月 05日

由于美国道琼指数上扬2.6%，使到亚洲股市纷纷开高，综合指数更跳空以1020.13点开市，惟随后套利活动使到缺口（Gap）被回补。如图所示，综指精确的在1000点的心理支持水平反弹，所以1000点继续的成为指接下来的支持水平，阻力水平依然是1053点胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带周二进一步打开14%，所以综指目前还是处于上扬的格局中，换句话说，只要布林频带继续打开及综指高于布林中频带的话，那综指后市有望更上一层楼，直到布林频带收窄为止，另一方面，布林中频带也将继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加8.5%，这表示综指开高继续吸引投资者入市，所以虽然综指开高收低，市场还是有足够的承接力吸纳卖压。通常只要成交量继续保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上的话，综指就有望维持目前的上扬格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在达到100%后下滑，这是综指短期走势热炽所致，无论如何随机指标依然处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期的走势属于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时将是综指出现技术调整的讯号。

由于综指跳空开高，所以投资者趁机套利，这使到综指盘中回软，无论如何，综指目前依然处于上扬格局中，这是因为综指继续获得布林中频带及200天移动平均线（MA）的扶持，所以综指涨势有望持续，直到随机指标开始跌破70%为止。