TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 21日 / Composite Index 21/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 21日

如图中箭头A，综合指数周四一度上扬至1050.45点，惟在接近1053点胜图自动费氏阻力线时卖压涌现，综指随后出现套利导致综指下滑，按日以1035.56点挂收，下跌7.07或0.7%。T2的上升趋势线依然是综指接下来的动态支持水平，阻力水平则是1053点胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，尽管综指下滑，这使到布林频带打开的幅度减少（10%），这表示综指目前虽然是属于上扬趋势中，不过由于接近1053点的阻力，所以继续受到套利卖压。通常布林中频带将是综指在调整时的第一目标，也是动态支持线，换句话说，综指目前转强的格局依然未被破坏，直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少20.5%，导致成交量稍微跌破40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。周四成交量的减退表示市场并未出现惊慌抛售的现象，但若综指要维持上升趋势的话，那成交量就必须尽快回升至40天的成交量平均值以上，否则综指涨势将难以持续。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周四下滑至70%水平，所以目前综指依然处于短期强势区域内，惟若随机指标随后跌破70%水平的话，那综指将有出现技术调整的风险。
虽然综指早盘上扬，不过由于美国道琼斯及亚太区域股市纷纷收低，这使到综指未能突破1053点的阻力水平。总的来说，由于两个月来综指已经上扬整25%，若综指要再度上扬的话，那马股需要更多的利好因素及成交量来维持涨势那综指才有望突破1053点阻力水平，再创高峰。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 21/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI had an intra-day high reaching 1050.45 points, but soon it started to give back its gain and ended the day 7.07 points or 0.7% lower.

This is because the KLCI is very near its 1053 Fibonacci Retracement resistance level as profit taking takes place causing the KLCI to retreat. For the moment, the T2 uptrend line is still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, despite the KLCI ended lower, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 10%, suggesting that the current movement is still bullish biased, with the Bollinger Middle Band being the dynamic support too.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 20.5%, and slightly below the 40-day VMA level.

The declined of volume suggests that the selling pressure was not huge, but if the KLCI should sustain its uptrend, volume must return to above 40-day VMA level soon, or else the market might be losing its positive sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic declined as the KLCI ended lower, but still above 70% level. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average and regional markets were mostly lower, the KLCI was also dragged down lower. In short, the KLCI is capped by the 1053 resistance, and to break above this resistance, we need more positive news as well as more market participation to sustain this uptrend.