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Monday, November 26, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 2012-11-26 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-11-26

FBM KLCI 2012-11-26
Despite the strong rebound of the US market on last Friday, the KLCI failed to rebound on Monday, but closing even lower. As indicated by A, the KLCI has been trending down in its short-term weakness movement for the 15th day now.
As indicated by B, total market volume remains below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that market participation is a little low, as investors are being very cautious amid the weakening market sentiment. Meanwhile, losers still outnumbering gainers on Monday with 447 losers versus 225 gainers. This shows that the selling pressure is still on the higher side.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays below 10%, which suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is indeed weak, but however, in over-sold condition.
In conclusion, despite the short-term over-sold condition, the KLCI has not even rebounded a little, and therefore, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. Meanwhile, the KLCI is testing the 200-day Moving Average line, and if the KLCI should breach below this level, it would dampen the mid-to-longer term outlook for the KLCI.
富时大马综合指数 2012-11-26

Saturday, November 24, 2012

24 Nov 2012 Dow Rally To Strong Weekly Gains

Dow Topples 13,000 On Black Friday
It was a solid day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which ended near a session high to finish north of 13,000 for the first time since Nov. 6. With a lack of domestic data to go on, Wall Street spent the holiday-shortened trading day applauding upbeat reports from China and Germany. Investors also appear to be optimistic about the holiday shopping season, with most tech stocks and retailers gaining notable ground on the biggest shopping day of the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) blazed a steady path higher, adding 172.79 points, or 1.35%, to conquer the round-number 13,000 level. In addition, the blue-chip barometer ended atop its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than two weeks. All 30 of the index's components settled north of breakeven, led by Hewlett-Packard's (NASDAQ:HPQ) 4.2% advance. For the week, the Dow soared 3.3%.
Similarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled near a session high, tacking on 18.1 points, or 1.3%, to end atop the 1,400 level for the first time since Nov. 6. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 40.3 points, or 1.4%. For the week, the SPX and COMP gained 3.6% and 4%, respectively.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

FCPO Technical Chart and Commentary 21 Nov 2012

FCPO >>> From bearish recovery to bullish
2500 to be the turning point?

Saturday, November 17, 2012

FISCAL CLIFF POW-WOW >>> Dow gain on hopeful budget talk

DJIA down for a 4th consecutive week

U.S. stocks climbed Friday, denting weekly losses, as optimistic words followed the opening round of negotiations on averting automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to begin Jan. 1.

“It’s a distinct positive that they came out and said, ‘We talked, we saw some common ground.’ It’s not in either party’s interests to go over the cliff,” said Jim Dunigan, managing executive, investments, PNC Wealth Management, after congressional leaders emerged from the meeting with President Barack Obama and labeled the discussions “constructive.”

Halting a four-session losing run, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 45.93 points, or 0.37%, to 12,588.31, leaving it with a 1.8% weekly loss.

The S&P 500 Index rose 6.55 points, or 0.48%, to 1,359.88, down 1.5% from the week-ago finish.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 16.19 points, or 0.57%, to 2,853.13, off 1.8% for the week.

For every stock on the decline, nearly three rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 949 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 4 billion.


Friday, November 16, 2012

Stop calling it a ‘fiscal cliff’

You’ve seen the scary headlines warning of an economic disaster heading our way. You’ve heard the overheated rhetoric, and seen fiscal countdown clocks, including one on this website.

It’s hogwash: The U.S. economy will not go over a “fiscal cliff” on Jan. 1, as we’ve been led to believe.

In truth, nothing much will happen to the economy on Jan. 1 or Jan. 2 or Jan. 3, despite the expiration of tax cuts and the automatic reductions in federal spending. For almost all of us, the first week of the new year will be much like the 52nd week of the old one.

The fiscal cliff is a misleading metaphor. The laws will change on that day, it’s true, but the impact will be spread out over many, many months. In fact, the effects are already being felt, particularly in financial markets. Businesses, investors, workers and consumers have begun to prepare for the changes, and that’s caused the economy to slow a bit already.

It’s not a Niagara Falls, with billions of gallons going over a cliff. It’s more like a bathtub slowly filling up. And, on Jan. 1, it’s going to spill over the edge. Eventually, it will flood the house, but that’ll take time.

It’s not an explosion; it’s water torture.

As far as the economy goes, the Jan. 1 deadline is meaningless. There’s no urgency to reach a deal quickly, no reason to abandon long-held principles just for the sake of meeting that deadline.

However, the politics are a very different story. The political pressure to appear reasonable could be so powerful that the two parties could reach a deal that they’ll come to regret. Just as they’ve come to regret their August 2011 deal, the one that created this year’s fiscal showdown.

To review, here’s what would change on Jan. 1:

• The Bush-era tax rates would expire. That would bring higher rates for ordinary income, capital gains, dividends, and estates.

• The annual patch in the alternative minimum tax would also expire, as would several small corporate tax breaks. These are always extended every year, and will almost certainly be extended again next year.

• The payroll tax holiday would end, which would mean a tax hike for every working American.

• Taxes to pay for Obamacare would hit the “rich.”

• On the spending side, about $100 billion in automatic cuts in federal spending would begin to be implemented, half in the defense budget and half in nondefense.

• Extended unemployment benefits would expire, cutting off benefit checks for about 3 million people. That’s going to hurt.

• Payments to doctors under Medicare would be cut, but these reductions have always been canceled in the past, and they will next year as well.

The immediate economic impact of these changes would be minor, although it would be negative. The expiration of the Bush tax cuts would be nearly imperceptible. In the event of a failure to reach a deal by the first of the year, it’s probable that the IRS would not change the tax withholding tables right away, so most of us wouldn’t see any impact in our paychecks until the taxes are due on April 15, 2014.

Maybe the countdown clock should say: “517 days” not 45.

The stock market might rally in January. Savvy investors would have sold in 2012 to lock in their capital gains to guarantee the lower tax rate, and once the calendar turned, they’d be ready to swoop in to catch some bargains.

The spending cuts would be implemented immediately, but the impact on the economy would be gradually felt, with the vast majority of federal spending continuing as before.
Contracts that were already obligated would not be affected. Some federal workers (and private-sector workers) would certainly be furloughed, and plans to buy new equipment or maintain old equipment would be postponed. Over time, these cutbacks would begin to hurt the broader economy.

The only components of the fiscal cliff that would have an immediate impact are the parts that are certain to go into effect, no matter what kind of deal is reached: The end of the payroll tax holiday and the expiration of extended jobless benefits.

The increase in the payroll tax (also known as FICA) would be, as President Barack Obama said in 2011, “a big deal.” It would mean $40 less in their paycheck every week.

Just because the impact wouldn’t be instantaneous doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be significant, if it persisted for a full year. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that, if Congress does nothing, the economy would fall back into a recession in the first half of 2013 as the deficit reduction kicks in.

Millions of people would lose their jobs, many businesses would fail and the nation would endure more economic hardship, according to the CBO and many private economic analysts.

That is, if Congress did nothing and left the higher taxes and lower spending in place for a full year. Congress could step in at any time, before or after Jan. 1, to postpone the deficit reduction.

If Congress doesn’t act by the middle of February or so, the austerity will weigh heavier and heavier on the economy with each passing week as the unemployment rate climbs higher and higher.

And that’s when the pressure to cut a deal will be unbearable. When the water from the tub starts flowing into the living room.


Saturday, November 10, 2012

WALL STREET 10 Nov 2012 >>> 'Cliff' Fears Give Stocks Worst Week Since June

DJIA edge up but post heavy weekly losses
Dow, S&P suffered worst week in 5 months
Despite a small advance on Friday, stocks ended up having their worst week since June as investors moved on from Tuesday's election and worried about the impending US "Fiscal Cliff."

For the week, the Dow fell 2.1 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 2.4 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 2.6 percent since President Barack Obama won re-election on Tuesday, the market is down well over three percent.

On Friday, stocks lost most of their earlier gains after Obama called for higher taxes on the rich.
After a choppy trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
rose 4.07 points, or 0.03%, to end at 12,815.39, but it dropped 2.1% for the week. This was Dow’s third consecutive week of losses.
The S&P 500 climbed 2.34 points, or 0.2%, to end at 1,379.85, but it declined 2.4% for the week. Technology led sector gains Friday, while utilities performed most poorly among the 10 industry groups.
The Nasdaq Composite added 9.29 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2,904.87, but it dropped 2.6% for the week, posting its fifth consecutive week of losses.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) moved modestly higher amid continued trepidation among investors. While staying south of the $19 level, the VIX added close to 0.7% on the day and finished the week 5.8% higher.

Around 740 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3.6 billion.

Friday, November 9, 2012

09 Nov 2012 >>> Astro Shares Continue Slide

ASTRO 11.7% Lower Than IPO RM3
Shares of Astro drifted to its lowest closing price yesterday since its re-listing three weeks ago as even as speculation swirls over who the sellers are Astro closed down three sen at RM2 65 and is now down 11 7 per cent from its initial public offering IPO price of RM3. There have been no announcements of selling by major shareholders so far leading some market observers to suspect that the selling pressure could be coming from Astro employees themselves who took out financing in order to buy shares of Astro and who cannot meet the margin calls as the share price kept dropping resulting in automatic sell orders

It was reported by The Star that Astro management met with their staff over the disappointing share price performance and efforts were being made to get the financing banks to give more time before making margin calls or to lower the margin threshold for Astro employees. Analysts and brokers said that the selling pressure could possibly also be due to a combination of other factors including an unsustainable price premium given the lack of dividend yield as well as foreigners exiting the market especially telecommunication stocks.
One analyst said that Astro s incumbent position and monopoly on satellite TV gave it a premium price upon listing which could also mean a limited upside and investors could be shifting their money to where they perceived they could get better yields.  “Investors might just be biting the bullet and shifting their money elsewhere ” said the analyst. One broker said that those who took out margin financing to buy Astro shares could be hitting their cut loss thresholds.
“If the buyers who took margin financing can't top up the difference their bankers will auto sell”  said the broker He also said that foreigners have been taking profit and reallocating their assets outside the country “When they cut, they cut everything ” the broker noted.

Astro has been the weakest of the major IPOs in Kuala Lumpur this year although it secured 22 cornerstone investors including US hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management. The weakness in the share price could also be due to a change in rules also allowed the cornerstone investors to exit Malaysia’s largest pay-TV operator without a lock-up period Malaysia’s pension fund giant Employees Provident Fund EPF did not invest in the company possibly because it did not find the dividends expected to be between 2-3 per cent attractive enough.

Astro started in 1996 just before the Asian financial crisis It was listed on Bursa Malaysia in 2003 as Astro All Asia Networks AAAN but delisted in June 2010 after its major owners Ananda Krishnan and Khazanah Nasional decided to take it private. The rationale for de-listing was losses from its overseas operations — India and Indonesia. Both operations required more capital and gestation which would have impacted Astro’s bottomline if it had stayed listed. Two years have passed and it is back on Bursa as AMH Astro Malaysia Holdings with Ananda Krishnan holding about 50 per cent and Khazanah holding 20.8 per cent.
Some analysts said however that Malaysia’s largest pay-TV operator is poised for robust growth thanks to the country’s low pay-TV penetration rate rising income levels and its large content offerings. MIDF Research said that Astro’s average revenue per user ARPU is expected to be maintained due to rising household income and upgrading of subscribers and that its stated 75 per cent payout ratio would make it a good defensive stock to hold.

09 Nov 2012 >>> DJIA Falling down, falling down, falling down

Wall Street In Multi-Day Retreat
The markets took heavy losses for a second day in a row Thursday in a broad-based retreat late in the session. Every major sector closed to the downside. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 121.41 points, or 0.94%, to 12,811.32,
its lowest close since late July.
The technicals data is not pretty. In fact it is looking horribly ugly.

Technical Analysis : FBM KLCI 2012-11-08 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-11-08

FBM KLCI 2012-11-08
Due to the over-night sharp losses of the US markets, plus the Asian markets were also falling, and the KLCI was not exempted. The KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1637.50 points, but at late trading, the KLCI started to rebound, closing at 1641.07 points or a loss of 4.46 points, forming a long lower-shadow candlestick. Generally, this implies that the KLCI is likely to have some rebound.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 17.16%, with volume slightly below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, when the market overall is falling, lower volume is normal as investors are being cautious while reluctantly taking up new positions.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays below 30%, thus suggesting that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still weak. If the Stochastic should break above 30%, it would be a signals suggesting a short-term technical rebound for the KLCI.
In conclusion, after falling for 5 consecutive days, the KLCI is showing a sign of a possible rebound. Also, many blue chips counters are trading at their short-term over-sold condition, and this could attract some bargain buying interests, thus it may increase the chance of some rebound in the KLCI.

富时大马综合指数 2012-11-08
如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续处于30%水平以下,这表示综指短期走势还是处于偏弱的格局。接下来若随机指标能上扬突破30% 水平的话,那便是综指短期出现技术反弹的讯号。

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Wall Street Posts Election-Day Rally, Dow Jumps 133

Wall Street zoomed higher Tuesday in a broad-based advance as Americans headed to the polls to elect the next president. Trading desks across the world were fixated on the American presidential election, the results of which are likely to play a big role in shaping the world's leading economy in years to come. Last-minute polling showed President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney locked in a very tight race. 
A significant concern among market participants was also the uncertainty that could be caused by the election dragging out over several days or weeks.
The Dow blazed a trail higher right out of the gate today, topping out at 13,290.75 around midday before closing with a triple digits gain of 133.24 points or +1.02% at 13245.68.  The bullish momentum waned just slightly in the final hour of trading, though, with the blue-chip barometer paring its lead. Today marks just the second close north of 13,200 since Oct. 22 for the Dow.
"Although volume has been relatively light, we enjoyed a pretty nice Election Day rally." 
 "This reminds me of four years ago, when we also had a strong, positive move on Election Day. Overall, we're seeing a lot of strength from crude oil, gold, and other commodities, especially as the dollar displayed quite a bit of weakness."
“Hope springs eternal on Wall Street that we won’t fall apart. There is enough of a belief that the economy is going to expand, maybe not strongly, but still expand, in 2013.”
“For the past few months we’ve been saying that the market would rally in November and December, regardless of who wins. It looks like the economy is improving and the Federal Reserve is still pumping money into the system."

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Technical Analysis : 富时大马综合指数 2012-11-06 / FBM KLCI 2012-11-06

富时大马综合指数 2012-11-06
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加了 12.73 %,同时继续保持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。简单来说,市场交投仍然维持在活跃的水平。另一方面,市场总交易值在周二增加了14.48%,达16亿6000万令吉。这表示活跃交易的并非只是低价股,而仍然有许多蓝筹股项大量易手。这也暗示着市场的卖压还是偏高的。但无论如何,在午盘时,有投资者趁低买入一些蓝筹股项,特别是云顶,这也使得综指收服部分的失地。
FBM KLCI 2012-11-06
As indicated by A, after breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1638.18 points on Tuesday, before recovering some of its early losses in the afternoon session. However, as the close, the KLCI is still below 1650 at 1645.63 points, losing 8.41 points or 0.51%.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 12.73%, while still above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market participation is still active.
Meanwhile, market turnover increased 14.48%, with 1.66 billion ringgit. This suggests that not only low-priced stocks are actively traded, some of the blue chips were also heavily traded. Although some bargain buying was seen in the afternoon session, particularly in Genting, which helped the KLCI recovered some of its losses, overall market selling pressure is still relatively higher.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still below 30%, which is the short-term bearish territory. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still weak.
In conclusion, although the KLCI has broken below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and interrupting its earlier uptrend, it has not yet shown any downtrend formation. Next support for the KLCI is at 1625 while the resistance remains at 1680.

30 x Middle Bollinger Band Rangebound Stocks 4ur Perusal

Description : The Daily Stock Screen is a retail product which can be a very useful guide for momentum trading and trading ideas .The following list is derived from the screening of more than 1000 stocks currently listed on Bursa Malaysia to identify 30 ‘potential’ breakout stocks which just climbed above the middle Bollinger band, with potential to appreciate toward the upper Bollinger  Band.
*Note: To qualify in this list above, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL.
Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.



The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.


Saturday, November 3, 2012

FBMKLCI Technical Analysis : Change In Polarity Principles >>> When Support Turn Resistance

FBMKLCI 02 Nov 2012
Despite the US markets rebounded strongly, and the Asian markets mostly higher, the KLCI started falling right at the start of Friday's trading. Selling were mostly stronger on Friday, especially on Telco, in which Axiata, TM, Digi, contributed most of the losses of the KLCI. At the close, the KLCI fell 19.56 points, a biggest fall since 20th of September this year, to close at 1656.13 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below 1668, and even below the 31-day EMA dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI are now at 1668 & 1680.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 19.43%, but still above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is still actively participated. But with the KLCI falling sharply, together with losers outnumbering gainers, the active trading actually suggests stronger selling activities.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 70%, 50%, and 30% all at once, reaching down to 0%. This is because the KLCI ended sharply lower, and fluctuate more than its usual movement. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should stay below 30%, it suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is now weakening.
In conclusion, the KLCI failed to break its 1680 resistance. Although the KLCI ended sharply lower, this does not necessary means that the KLCI is turning to a downtrend immediately. Technically, the KLCI could just be having its technical correction, as for whether the KLCI would form a downtrend, it would take a little more time, and further validation is required.
富时大马综合指数 2012-11-02