FBMKLCI Technical Analysis : Change In Polarity Principles >>> When Support Turn Resistance

FBMKLCI 02 Nov 2012

Despite the US markets rebounded strongly, and the Asian markets mostly higher, the KLCI started falling right at the start of Friday's trading. Selling were mostly stronger on Friday, especially on Telco, in which Axiata, TM, Digi, contributed most of the losses of the KLCI. At the close, the KLCI fell 19.56 points, a biggest fall since 20^th of September this year, to close at 1656.13 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below 1668, and even below the 31-day EMA dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI are now at 1668 & 1680.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 19.43%, but still above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is still actively participated. But with the KLCI falling sharply, together with losers outnumbering gainers, the active trading actually suggests stronger selling activities.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 70%, 50%, and 30% all at once, reaching down to 0%. This is because the KLCI ended sharply lower, and fluctuate more than its usual movement. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should stay below 30%, it suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is now weakening.

 

In conclusion, the KLCI failed to break its 1680 resistance. Although the KLCI ended sharply lower, this does not necessary means that the KLCI is turning to a downtrend immediately. Technically, the KLCI could just be having its technical correction, as for whether the KLCI would form a downtrend, it would take a little more time, and further validation is required.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-11-02

尽管美国股市昨日大幅度的回弹还有亚太区域股市普片上扬，富时大马综合指数周五却背道而驰，一开市后便直线的下滑，随后午盘综指因蓝筹股受强大卖压袭击，特别是通讯股，加剧了跌势，最后以1656.13点挂收，下跌19.56点。这也是综指自今年09月20日来最大跌幅的一日。如图中箭头A所示，综指跌破了1668点的水平，目前正试探31-天EMA的动态支持线。综指阻力保持在1680点的水平。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周五减少了19.43%，不过成交量还是处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平以上。所以市场的交投还是属于活跃的。但由于综指大跌，再加上市场下跌股项超过上升股，因此这活跃的交易也反映出偏强的卖压。

 

如图中箭头C所示，由于综指直线下滑，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破了70%，50%及30%的水平，直接到达0%的水平。这是因为综指周五的跌幅已经超出了综指近日来的寻常幅度。无论如何，接下来若随机指标还是维持在30%水平以下的话，那表示综指短期的走势已进入了偏弱的格局。

 

总的来说，综指未能突破1680点的阻力，却先遭到强大卖压的侵袭。不过，以技术而言，这并不表示综指将就此转为跌势。其实，综指目前也许只是出现比较强烈的技术调整，至于日后会否演变成跌势，那还是需要一些时间来确认。

 

HAPPY TRENDING