ZLBT Chats

Friday, March 29, 2013

FKLI Spot >>> Commentary c/w Daily Chart

FKLI Daily technical analysis
The FKLI spot month contract ended with limited losses on Thursday while cash market managed to close in the positive territory. At the close, the FKLI price was dropped 2.5 pts or -0.15% to 1,673.

Based on the daily chart, an uncertain candle has been formed on Thursday where it indicated that market was indecisive. As we can see in the chart, a reversal candle formation had detected at the current highest level. Normally this kind of candle formation suggests that the FKLI price may reverse from the current highest level. However, further confirmation is needed to confirm the signal.

Referring to the MACD histogram is building up in the positive zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators
MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative,

Intraday technical support & resistance for 29th Mar 2013
1st support 1,660; 2nd support 1,650
1st resistance 1,678-82, 2nd resistance 1,690


Thursday, March 28, 2013

GOLD Technical Analysis >>> Put Egos Aside & Respect the Charts

I would like to repeat the idea that it is best to subordinate yourself to markets at all times.  To put your ego aside or at least check it daily to make sure it is not leading you astray.  The gold bug ego for example, hardened by a solid decade-plus of relentless bull market is in my opinion too set in its ways on balance.  That is because it is an ego that knows it is right. 

Au monthly chart, log scale

Using a log scale chart, which is better for illustrating trend lines, we see that gold is at critical lateral support zone.  But there are two more lateral support zones roughly in line with the two major bull market trend lines.

It is difficult to imagine gold declining very hard from current levels, given the superior sentiment backdrop (pervasively over bearish by the usual contrary indicators), but the chart is always the chart and it should be respected by right minded people.  Gold holds critical support at 1524 until it doesn’t, see?
HUI weekly chart, linear scale
Speaking of respect for charts, the sad journey of the HUI Gold Bugs index drives home the point.  There were no predictions made in Biiwii land.  There have only been probabilities based on status above support, below resistance, etc.  In fact, I must once again own the fact that in 2010 into 2011 I had a measured target of 888.  Nice one chart boy!
But the important thing is to keep respecting the charts no matter what they do, regardless of whether what they are doing is constructive to your favored plan or bias at any given time.  HUI, in making a series of warnings (1, 2 & 3 on the chart) by violating support levels, has come to a very bearish state.
With the constructive sentiment backdrop and extreme over sold status, the index has been a candidate to at least put in a tradeable counter-trend bounce.  But yesterday something happened that even put that prospect in jeopardy.
Since this area of the market is one that I remain engaged with fundamentally – the Cyprus hype only adds fuel to the bullish case for gold – my mindset will remain open to the bullish case at the drop of a hat.  But we will surely not become victims if worst case scenarios come about in the interim.
That weekly chart of HUI especially, has most recently been a negative view since the index lost former support at 460 after making a ‘W’ bottom last summer.  That means that Huey must now prove that it is not bearish (by recovering at least the lower of the 2 red dotted necklines) and not the other way around.
Some people dislike technical analysis because it can say some disturbing things that go against everything we think we know.  And that is exactly why we need it.  The current plan is to be ready for opportunity whenever it arrives on its own schedule.


Monday, March 25, 2013

FBMKLCI >>> The Moving Averages & Fibonacci Retracement %

The bulls live above the 200; below that, the bears
Most technical momentum indicators for the FBMKLCI stay bearish amid weak buying
momentum, blue chips are likely to extend low-volume consolidation as the end of the month
approaches. However, rotational trading plays on lower liners and small-cap stocks are
noticed to pick up and attract speculative retail interest, hence trading momentum is likely to
switch focus to the broader lower tier counters, as blue chips extend consolidation.

Technically,  immediate upside hurdle remains at the 200-day moving average currently
residing at 1,635, with next resistance at 1,643 and 1,644, the respective 50 and 100-day
moving averages, and stronger resistance at 1,658, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of
the 1,526 low of May 2012 to the 1,699 record high of Jan 2013. Immediate support is
downgraded to 1,613, the 50%FR, with 1,599 and 1,592, the 61.8%FR, acting as stronger
support platforms.

In a nutshell, the FBMKLCI ain't going nowhere higher until the prices can break above the 200 MA or 1635.00 resistance whereby the FKLI will most probably be in premium versus the cash index.


Thursday, March 21, 2013

ZLBT's Random Stocks Selection >>> 30 x Middle Rangebound Stocks For Your Perusal

Top 30 Mid BB Rangebound Stocks
 *Note: To qualify in this list above, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL. 

Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay rangebound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.


Tuesday, March 12, 2013

FCPO Chart and Commentary 12 Mar 2013

FCPO Daily Technical Analysis 
The FCPO active month contract ended off low on Monday as drop in palm oil inventory had underpinned FCPO price. At the close, the FCPO price was up 1 pts to 2,449.

Based on the daily chart, a small negative candle with lower wick has been formed on Monday where it indicated the FCPO price had supported at the intraday low level. During the trading session, the FCPO price tested the support line as drawn in the chart but it did not break below that S1 support line. So we still need to monitor closely whether the price is able to stay above the support line in the coming days. If the price is able to stay above this line, it will rise further.

Referring to the MACD histogram, it is building up in the negative zone. As always, intraday support and resistance levels will be eyed.

Technical indicators
MACD= Negative, ADX= Negative,

Intraday technical support & resistance for 12th Mar 2013

1st support 2,428; 2nd support 2,405-2,370

1st resistance 2,465-80; 2nd resistance 2513