ZLBT Chats

Friday, August 26, 2011

Rollover Activities To Check Downside

FKLI Bulls To Regroup After Festive Weekend
Technically, the index futures is likely break down from the sideways range shown on the chart above. If this event materialize, Selling pressure will likely dominant the market as the index have breakdown from the range.

Volume will serve as a confirmation indicator if the market does correct from here. A good example will be yesterday volume spike during the market retracement, which is noticeably during the late afternoon session.

For today, immediate support level is located around 1,455 follow by 1,445 while resistance is pegged at 1,483 follow by 1,501 level.


Thursday, August 25, 2011

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 24/08/2011 综合指数 2011年08月24日

综合指数 2011年 0824

如图中箭头A所示,综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)遇阻,所以布林中频带继续成为综指接下来的动态阻力线。另一方面,综指仍然处于14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)以下,这表示综指的整体走势仍然趋软,因为以技术而言,综指是必须上扬突破EMA,综指的后市才有望避开进一步下跌。





Wednesday, August 24, 2011

WALL STREET : DJIA Soars 322 Points on Pre-Speech Optimism

1 more push for the bulls would create
MACD bullish cross to challenge the
FBR 38.2% @ 11420
Relentless Rally : Traders Unshaken By Quake, Economy
Nasdaq Jump Triple Digits
U.S. stocks picked up steam as the session progressed, as not even news of a 5.9-magnitude earthquake along the East Coast could deter the bulls. Encouraging data from overseas got the proverbial ball rolling this morning, as investors celebrated solid manufacturing data from both China and Europe. In addition, buyers continued to pile on ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's highly anticipated end-of-week speech, where some economists are expecting the central banker to unveil another round of quantitative easing. Against this optimistic backdrop, a dose of dismal housing data was put on the proverbial back burner, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) notching a gain of more than 300 points by the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,176.76) extended its lead in afternoon trading, adding 322.1 points, or nearly 3%, to end just shy of its session high. As such, the blue-chip barometer settled atop both its 10-day moving average and the 11,000 level for the first session in four. Digging deeper, we find that 29 of the Dow's 30 blue chips finished in the black, with Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) pacing the advancing equities with gains of 4.3% and 5%, respectively. On the flip side, Bank of America (BAC) was the lone black sheep, surrendering 1.9% by the bell.

imilarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,162.35) ended at an intraday acme, tacking on 38.5 points, or 3.4%, when all was said and done. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,446.06) fared the best of the three, soaring 100.7 points, or 4.3%, before running into a roadblock in the form of its 10-day trendline.

Crude rises for 2nd day
After spending time on both sides of the breakeven line, crude oil futures climbed for a second straight day today. Bolstering black gold was the ongoing struggle in Libya, as well as hopes that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will outline additional stimulus measures during Friday's speech from Jackson Hole. By the close -- and despite the East Coast earthquake -- October-dated crude futures added $1.02, or 1.2%, to settle at $85.44 per barrel.


Tuesday, August 23, 2011

ZLBT Random Stock Picks >>> CIMB + GENTING BHD

CIMB & GENTING BHD  recommended SELL

Technical Comments
Driven by a fresh stochastics sell signal, CIMB shares could fall towards the 61.8%FR (RM7.63), with a breakdown to target the 76.4%FR (RM7.26), before buyers return to bargain hunt.

Technical Comments:
Genting shares could also weaken further on bearish technical momentum, with a breakdown below the 50%FR (RM9.44) to target the 61.8%FR (RM8.83) or even the 76.4%FR (RM8.09) before stabilizing.


Sunday, August 21, 2011

FKLI Charts and Data >>> 22 August 2011

Apply for bear hunting license now

A cautious FKLI BUY at 1450++ level is recommended

FKLI 1427 was the lowest recorded in recent weeks.
A 1450 level LONG should see practical support at 1445
If that 1445 support line is overrun then 1427 should be revisited

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19/08/2011 综合指数 2011年 08月 19日

综合指数 2011年 08月 19

如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)周四精确的在142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)动态阻力线遇阻后,周五因作业美国股市再次大幅度下滑而牵引之下跌19.32点或1.29%,以1483.98点挂收。综指当前支持水平落在1480点的水平,阻力水平除了是142131EMA动态阻力线以外就是1500点。





Saturday, August 20, 2011

ZLBT's Weekend DJIA Charts 20/08/2011

Less said the better
A picture speaks a thousand words
And there are 2 ......

Try ..... ??? :P

Thursday, August 18, 2011

ZLBT's Good Morning Charts 18 August 2011

Caution is the word ......
Global uncertainties can create pendulous market swings

综合指数 2011年 0817

如图中箭头A所示 ,富时大马综合指数(综指)周三虽然成功的在1500点水平以上开市,但始终在142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average - EMA)的动态阻力线遇阻,按日微扬4.89点或0.33%。综指支持水平依然是1480点。


Wednesday, August 17, 2011

ZLBT's Good Morning Charts 17 August 2011

Hold Your Exuberance
Market Swings Will Be Pendulous

The DJIA Charts are showing some improvement with massive selling fading noticeably.
Technically, the daily oscillators & indicators are off their worst levels.
In the DJIA Weekly Elliot Wave Chart, there are signs of an end to the bearish Wave C.

FKLI (as per mentioned) was exposed to profit takings as recent LONG positions were liquidated.
Therefor, Selling Into Strength became an option and not the norm.
However, ZLBT would still recommend a BUY AT PIVOTAL SUPPORT
Keep a STOP handy for new entries  to counter premeditated volatility.


Tuesday, August 16, 2011

ZLBTs' Good Morning Charts : 16 August 2011

Stormy Selling May Have Subsided
But Another Calm Before The Storm Cannot Be Overlooked
Watch The Horizon


Monday, August 15, 2011

Technical Rebound On Track For FKLI

Correction To Continue After Oversold Rebound
Technically, index futures are still susceptible to steeper correction as the spot month Aug had break down important support level previously.

General rule of thumb, when the index breached below the 100 days moving avearage, it is clear that massive selling pressure has occur and market is likely trendling down.

In other words, the Bulls stay above 100 days moving average while the bears stay below it. Bottom line, traders are advised to be extra cautious holding overnight position as gap up play will likely occur for the time being.

Daily Pivot Point 


Sunday, August 14, 2011

Weekly Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 12/08/2011 每周技术分析 : 2010年8月12日

Weekly Analysis FBMKLCI 12/08/2011
For the week ended on the 12th of August, 2011, the KLCI fell a total of 40.76 points or 2.67% with its weekly high of 1515.19 point and the weekly low of 1423.47 points. Total market volume was 7,776,343,300 shares, up 29.17%.

Main Chart:
The negative performance of the regional markets continue to lead the KLCI, and on Tuesday, the KLCI had its intraday low touching 1423.47 points, but started to rebound as it was seriously over-sold. Support for the KLCI is now at 1474~1480 while the resistance is at 1500.

Bollinger Bands:
Despite the over-sold condition on Tuesday which leads to a pullback effect, the KLCI remains below the Bollinger middle band, and this suggests that the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. Meanwhile, as of Friday, the Bollinger Bands contracted, and this suggests that the KLCI might be consolidating


As indicated by B, total market volume were above the 40-day volume moving average. Theoretically, when volume is above the 40-day volume moving average, it suggests that the market sentiment is likely to improve. However, due to the technical rebound mood for the KLCI after its over-sold condition, the higher volume is likely to imply that these are short term play or profit taking activities, rather than suggesting an improvement of market confidence.

With the MACD line staying below the zero level, the mid to long term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weak. On Friday, the MACD histogram started to tick up, and it might be forming a Rounding Bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, it suggests that the KLCI short term could be picking up some strength.

WinChart RSI:
No much changes in the WinChart RSI, as it is still situated below 30%, in the mid term bearish territory.

As indicated by C, although the Stochastic has broken above 30%, breaking away from the short term bearish territory, it has not shown any strength for the short term movement. Technically, the Stochastic would have to break above 70%, in order to suggest any short term bullish signal.

In Conclusion:
The KLCI is likely to consolidate, or have some sort of technical rebound. However, as long as the KLCI should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI should remains bearish biased.

每周技术分析 : 2010年8月12日

综指再次跟随国际指数下跌,使到综指上周一度下挫至1423.47的最低水平,随后综指大力回弹,使到综指出现一道长的下影线。无论如何,综指上周仍然未能突破1489.79 点的费氏线以及1500点的心理阻力关口,所以这两道水平成为综指接下来的阻力水平,支持水平则是1480点及1464.44点的费氏线(参考箭头A)。

综指上周剧烈的下跌使到综指分别跌破了10天以及20天的布林频带(Bollinger Band),这引发了布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)对综指发出的拉回效应,所以综指出现技术回弹。无论如何,布林中频带将成为综指的动态阻力线,换句话说,若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话,综指走势仍然是属于趋软的。



胜图强弱指标(WinChart RSI)上周仍然维持在30%以下,这表示综指的中期走势仍然是处于下跌的格局中,直到胜图强弱指标能上扬突破30%为止。




Saturday, August 13, 2011

Wall Street Caps Dizzying Week With a 126-Point Rally

Dow In 1.5% Deficit For Volatile Week
U.S. stocks ended a dizzy week on a high note today, as Wall Street viewed the latest round of economic reports with rose-colored glasses. Specifically, investors celebrated encouraging data from the Commerce Department, which said seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped 0.5% in July -- the biggest monthly advance since April. The upbeat figures helped to overshadow a steep drop in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index -- which fell to a 31-year nadir in August -- and aided the bulls to their second straight victory. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added more than 125 points -- though even a triple-digit jump looked relatively modest against the backdrop of one of the most volatile weeks in years.

"There is no question the sharp selloff in asset markets around the world over the past few weeks, on top of an already fragile economic picture, had a major influence on today's reading."

"The consumer is at the center of the weak economy debate ... and as such, even a modestly better-than-expected number today provides us with some level of relief."

“It’s true the market is off its meds for the moment, but it’s still highly susceptible to headline news.”

“You’ve got some extremely confused investors out there."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,269.02) ended with a gain of 125.7 points, or 1.1%, as all but nine of its 30 components finished higher. Leading the bullish majority was Boeing's (BA) 4.9% jump, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) paced the laggards with a 2.1% retreat. After two straight days in the black, the Dow pared its weekly deficit to 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,178.81) advanced 6.2 points, or 0.5%, but still gave up 1.7% since last Friday. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,507.98) gained 15.3 points, or 0.6%, to end north of the 2,500 level for the first time in a week. What's more, the tech-rich COMP fared the best for the week, trimming its losses to about 1%. 


Friday, August 12, 2011

Wall Street's Mood Swings Manic; Dow Jumps 423 Points

The SPX and COMP recovered 4.6% and 4.7%, respectively
Extending Wall Street's bipolar price action of late, U.S. stocks reversed Wednesday's trajectory to take a manic turn today. Along with a well-received earnings report from Cisco Systems (CSCO), the bulls celebrated a drop in initial jobless claims, which fell beneath the closely watched 400,000 marker for the first time in months. By the time the dust settled, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added more than 420 points, or nearly 4%, marking its fourth straight absolute move of 3.5% or more -- a feat not accomplished since November 2008, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. What's more, should the blue-chip barometer extend its see-saw momentum tomorrow, a similarly significant move in either direction would tie the record set in October 1987.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,143.31) recovered most of Wednesday's losses, adding 423.4 points, or nearly 4%, to reclaim the 11,000 level. For the second time this week, all 30 of the Dow's blue chips finished higher, led by CSCO's near-16% gain. In fact, all of the index's components have ended in unison each day this week.

 Similarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,172.64) reversed yesterday's deficit -- almost exactly -- advancing 51.9 points, or 4.6%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,492.68) fared the best of the three, thanks to earnings-related optimism in the tech sector. Specifically, the COMP gained 111.6 points, or 4.7%, after running into a wall near the 2,500 level.


Thursday, August 11, 2011

Economic Malaise Incite Violent Selling; Dow Plummets 519.83 Points

Bears set off another bloodbath; DJIA lose 4.62%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) nullified Tuesday's gains today, as revived concerns about the fiscal fate of Europe kept the major market indexes swimming in red ink. With Uncle Sam's notorious credit-rating downgrade still fresh on traders' collective mind, the threat of a similar downgrade for France only reopened Wall Street's proverbial wounds. Meanwhile, an unimpressive earnings showing from Walt Disney (DIS) fueled the bearish fire, with the Dow logging its fourth triple-digit drop since the start of the month. On the flip side, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 42.99) skyrocketed 22.6%, while a massive flight to safety sent gold futures north of $1,800 an ounce for the first time ever.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,719.94) extended its slide in the final hour of trading, surrendering 519.8 points, or 4.6%, by the close. Furthermore, the index gave up its foothold atop the 11,000 level, as not one of its 30 blue chips bucked the trend. Leading the pack was Bank of America (BAC), which gave up 10.9% by the time the dust settled.

Similarly, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,120.76) finished at a session low, backpedaling 51.8 points, or 4.4%. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,381.05) also settled at an intraday nadir, swallowing a loss of 101.5 points, or 4.1%.


Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 08月 10日

综合指数 2011年 0810
富时大马综合指数(综指)在过去数日连续大幅度下挫后,导致短期超卖(Short-Term Over Sold)的现象,而在周三开始出现技术性的反弹,综指回弹8.38点以1480.52点挂收,请参考图中箭头A。由于综指在前几日连续跌破几个重要支持水平(包括1540点跳空跌破及1500心理整数水平)因此1500点的水平将是综指当前的阻力水平。



总的来说,综指当前虽然有技术反弹的可能,但是技术展望仍然是偏弱的。这是因为综指当前依然处于142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average - EMA)的动态阻力线以下。


Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Bargain Hunting May Lift Malaysian Stocks

Precision entry is vital
The Malaysian stock market has finished lower now in three straight trading days, plunging more than 75 points or 5 percent on its way to a five-month closing low. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just above the 1,470-point plateau, and now traders are looking for a modest rebound at the opening of trade on Wednesday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is broadly positive, with bargain hunting expected to take hold following more than a week of brutal selling. Property stocks figure to attract plenty of interest at the current levels, along with steel, finance, airline and technology stocks. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly in the green, and the Asian bourses are expected to follow suit.

The KLCI finished sharply lower on Tuesday following heavy losses among the financial shares and plantation stocks, with more modest downside coming from the industrial issues.

For the day, the index plunged 24.85 points or 1.66 percent to finish at 1,472.14 after trading between 1,423.47 and 1,490.14. Volume was 1.896 billion shares worth 3.598 billion ringgit. There were 828 decliners and 159 gainers, with 179 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Axiata Group, Maybank, CIMB Group, Sime Darby, Petronas Chemicals, IOI Corporation and Tenaga all finished lower, while Sanichi Technology was unchanged and Ranhill, Gamuda, UEM Land and DiGi.com ended higher.

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The lead from Wall Street is finally upbeat as stocks showed a substantial upward move in late-day trading on Tuesday, although considerable volatility followed the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy announcement. The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at near-zero levels, adding that rates are likely to remain at exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013.

The Fed also indicated that it now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did in June and said that the downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. While the central bank also said it discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery, it did not signal that it is likely to engage in another round of quantitative easing.

Bargain hunting likely contributed to the strength seen on Wall Street, with traders picking up stocks at reduced levels following the sell-off seen in recent sessions.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the Labor Department showing that worker productivity fell by 0.3 percent in the second quarter compared to a revised 0.6 percent decrease in the first quarter. Most economists had predicted an even steeper 0.7 percent decline in productivity in the second quarter compared to the 1.8 percent increase that had been reported for the previous quarter.

The major averages saw further upside going into the close of trading, ending the session near their best levels of the day. The Dow jumped 429.92 points or 4 percent to 11,239.77, the NASDAQ surged up 124.83 points or 5.3 percent to 2,482.52 and the S&P 500 soared 53.07 points or 4.7 percent to 1,172.53.

In economic news, Malaysia will on Wednesday announce industrial production numbers for June, with analysts looking for a decline of 1.2 percent on year following the 5.1 percent annual contraction in May.


FKLI Bears Very Much In Control

Precision Rebound of an oversold FKLI
FKLI Volume for Aug contract hit record when it hit 27,202 lots traded in a single day, that would be a volume spike that you could expect to see when the market is turning around. Precision is the key of survival and most trading participants are expecting major market rebound after the market have been sell-off for few session.

In other words, you would most probably get whipsawed if you are loading Short positions when the market is rebounding. Trading strategies remain, Short when the market hit first  resistance level and hold it longer so you can ride the down trend, hopefully. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1519
R1= 1489

S1= 1428


Tuesday, August 9, 2011

DJIA Swallows 634-Point Loss on S&P Downgrade

12 month gains wiped out in 12 days; VIX soars 50%
"Downgrade" was the word of the day on Wall Street today, as investors reacted to Standard & Poor's late-Friday revision to the U.S. credit rating. The major market indexes headed south right out of the gate, and selling pressure intensified as the session progressed -- despite President Obama's attempts to control the damage. "No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said, not long after the White House questioned S&P's math. As traders made a mad dash for the relative safety of gold, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) steepened its triple-digit deficit to more than 630 points, while the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 48.00) -- also known as the market's "fear gauge" -- skyrocketed to its loftiest finish since March 2009.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,809.85) swallowed its steepest loss since December 2008 today, giving up 634.8 points, or 5.6%, by the time the bell mercifully sounded. In fact, the blue-chip barometer ended south of the 11,000 level for the first time this calendar year, as not one of its 30 components eked out a win. Pacing the declining equities was Bank of America (BAC), which shed more than 20% amid reports of a legal battle with American International Group (AIG).

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,119.46) fared even worse than the Dow, backpedaling 79.9 points, or 6.7%, to end at its lowest level since September 2010. In the same vein, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,357.69) took the hardest hit of the major market indexes, plunging 174.7 points, or 6.9%, to end at its own year-to-date nadir.


Monday, August 8, 2011

FKLI Morning Outlook 08/08/2011

Big Gaps For FKLI To Fufil
Technically, distribution phase is now visible with more and more lower high and lower lows formation on the daily chart.  With none promising higher low formation form so far, bearish momentum is likely to continue.

 Traders are advise to go Short if the market attempt to rallies approaching major resistance level. For today, support is located around 1,501 while resistance is pegged at 1,538 level.

Daily Pivot Point

R2= 1538
R1= 1532
S1= 1513


Saturday, August 6, 2011

ZL's Ambiguous Weekend Charts

Crude oil futures ended a wishy-washy session in the black today
snapping a five-day losing streak. 
By the close, crude oil for September
delivery eked out a gain of 25 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $86.88 per barrel.
For the week, however, the front-month contract fell a whopping 9.2%
-- its heftiest week-over-week drop since the record loss of 14.7% in early May.

DJIA explored a range spanning more than 400 points today,
but settled 60.93 pointsor 0.54%, higher.
All but 10 of the Dow's 30 components ended in the black.

For the week, the Dow shed about 5.75%,
resulting in its lowest Friday close of 2011.

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 08月 05日

综合指数 2011年 0805

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开57%,由于综指一直都处于布林中频带以下,这显示综指出现暴跌的走势。无论如何,由于综指跌破了布林下频带,所以布林中频带发出拉回效应(Pull Back Effect),使到综指出现技术回弹,收窄综指全天的跌幅。





Friday, August 5, 2011

Worst Sell-Off Since Late 2008; Dow Plunge 512.76 Points

Major Indexes are all in the red for 2011
The VIX {Fear Index) jumped to a new high

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) may have halted its losing streak on Wednesday, but the bears were back with a vengeance today. Ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, Wall Street was none too impressed with the weekly jobless data from the Labor Department. The discouraging stats sparked an ominous note ahead of the July jobs report, and buyers hit the exits en masse as the session progressed.

By the time the bell mercifully sounded, the DJIA found itself more than 500 points south of breakeven, marking its worst single-session drop since Dec. 1, 2008. On the flip side, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 31.66) -- or the Street's "fear barometer" -- skyrocketed more than 35% to tag a new 52-week high, marking its heftiest daily percentage gain since early 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,383.68) steepened its slide as the closing bell approached, surrendering 512.76 points, or 4.3%, by the bell. In fact, all of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended in the red, as not even soon-to-split Kraft Foods (KFT) could eke out a win. Blazing the path lower was Alcoa (AA), which suffered a 9.3% plunge, while McDonald's (MCD) emerged as the least scathed, dropping just 1.5%.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,200.07) snowballed 60.3 points, or 4.8%, but found a late-session foothold atop the 1,200 level. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,556.39) cascaded 136.7 points, or 5.1%, to end at a new year-to-date nadir.