Weekly Analysis FBMKLCI 12/08/2011
For the week ended on the 12th of August, 2011, the KLCI fell a total of 40.76 points or 2.67% with its weekly high of 1515.19 point and the weekly low of 1423.47 points. Total market volume was 7,776,343,300 shares, up 29.17%.
Main Chart:
The negative performance of the regional markets continue to lead the KLCI, and on Tuesday, the KLCI had its intraday low touching 1423.47 points, but started to rebound as it was seriously over-sold. Support for the KLCI is now at 1474~1480 while the resistance is at 1500.
Bollinger Bands:
Despite the over-sold condition on Tuesday which leads to a pullback effect, the KLCI remains below the Bollinger middle band, and this suggests that the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. Meanwhile, as of Friday, the Bollinger Bands contracted, and this suggests that the KLCI might be consolidating
Volume:
As indicated by B, total market volume were above the 40-day volume moving average. Theoretically, when volume is above the 40-day volume moving average, it suggests that the market sentiment is likely to improve. However, due to the technical rebound mood for the KLCI after its over-sold condition, the higher volume is likely to imply that these are short term play or profit taking activities, rather than suggesting an improvement of market confidence.
Volume:
As indicated by B, total market volume were above the 40-day volume moving average. Theoretically, when volume is above the 40-day volume moving average, it suggests that the market sentiment is likely to improve. However, due to the technical rebound mood for the KLCI after its over-sold condition, the higher volume is likely to imply that these are short term play or profit taking activities, rather than suggesting an improvement of market confidence.
MACD:
With the MACD line staying below the zero level, the mid to long term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weak. On Friday, the MACD histogram started to tick up, and it might be forming a Rounding Bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, it suggests that the KLCI short term could be picking up some strength.
WinChart RSI:
No much changes in the WinChart RSI, as it is still situated below 30%, in the mid term bearish territory.
No much changes in the WinChart RSI, as it is still situated below 30%, in the mid term bearish territory.
Stochastic:
As indicated by C, although the Stochastic has broken above 30%, breaking away from the short term bearish territory, it has not shown any strength for the short term movement. Technically, the Stochastic would have to break above 70%, in order to suggest any short term bullish signal.
In Conclusion:
The KLCI is likely to consolidate, or have some sort of technical rebound. However, as long as the KLCI should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI should remains bearish biased.
每周技术分析 : 2010年8月12日富时综合指数上周以1515.19点开市，综指随后下跌至1423.47点的全周最低水平，综指随后回弹至1483.67点，按周下跌40.76点或2.67%，全周总成交量为77亿7634万3300股，按周增加29.17%。
主要指标－图形
综指再次跟随国际指数下跌，使到综指上周一度下挫至1423.47的最低水平，随后综指大力回弹，使到综指出现一道长的下影线。无论如何，综指上周仍然未能突破1489.79 点的费氏线以及1500点的心理阻力关口，所以这两道水平成为综指接下来的阻力水平，支持水平则是1480点及1464.44点的费氏线（参考箭头A）。
布林频带
综指上周剧烈的下跌使到综指分别跌破了10天以及20天的布林频带（Bollinger Band），这引发了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）对综指发出的拉回效应，所以综指出现技术回弹。无论如何，布林中频带将成为综指的动态阻力线，换句话说，若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话，综指走势仍然是属于趋软的。
技术指标
成交量
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周维持在40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这偏高的成交量是因为在投资者惊慌抛售的同时，另一部份乐观的投资者，毅然冒险进场扯购，进行短线交易。
平均乖离
平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周五稍微上扬，这显示振荡指标有形成圆底的迹象。接下来若振荡指标继续上扬，那综指的短期走势将有望摆脱下跌，形成技术反弹。
胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）上周仍然维持在30%以下，这表示综指的中期走势仍然是处于下跌的格局中，直到胜图强弱指标能上扬突破30%为止。
随机指标
随机指标（Stochastic）上周上扬突破30%的水平，这表示综指的多次的短期超卖后出现技术反弹的走势，无论如何，随机指标必须上扬突破70%的水平，这才算是综指短期走势成功进入上扬的格局。
总结
综指已跌破200天MA这重要的长期支持线，这意味着综指的长期走势正步入下跌的熊市格局，除非综指短期内上扬突破200天MA或形成横摆巩固的格局。以技术而言，若综指持续在14、21、31天加权移动平均线遇阻，那综指的后市将继续看低一线。
祝你好运
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