ZLBT Chats

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 31/01/2012 综合指数 2012-01-31

FBM KLCI 31 Jan 2012
The KLCI had its intra-day low reaching 1509.49 points, but started to rebound after the session break, ended 7.74 points or 0.51% high to close at 1521.29 points. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI while the resistance remains unchanged at 1530.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 22.74%, with volume still above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is relatively active, and if volume should continue to stay above the 40-day volume moving average, while the KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the market sentiment overall is likely to remain positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded on Tuesday, leaving the short term bearish region. At the moment, the Stochastic %K is at 66.07%, which is the neutral region, with some positive bias. If the Stochastic could break above 70%, it would be entering the short term bullish territory.

In conclusion, the technical outlook remains positive for the KLCI but since the KLCI is still capped under the 1530 resistance, the upside room is still limited. In short, the KLCI is consolidating in a sideways manner while its uptrend is still intact. For now, no sign of bearish reversal yet.

综合指数 2012-01-31 
富时大马综合指数(综指)周二一度下跌至1509.49点的全日最低,惟在午盘后开始回弹,最后并以1521.29点挂收,按日上扬7.74点或0.51%。如图中箭头A所示,综指依然获得142131EMA动态支持线的扶持,因此当前的技术展望仍然处于正面。综指阻力水平保持在1530点。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周二减少22.74%,但是依然处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。这表示马股当前的交投还是属于活跃的。若接下来成交量能维持在40天的成交量平均线以上,再配合综指继续获得142131EMA的扶持,那综指涨势有望维持下去。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)周二反弹,避开了短期弱势格局。目前的随机指标处于66.07%的水平,是综指短期中和的区域。接下来若随机指标能再次上扬突破70%水平,那综指有望重返短期强势格局。

总的来说,综指继续获得142131EMA动态支持线的扶持,因此当前的技术展望还是处于正面的。不过综指始终未能突破1530点的水平,因此上扬空间还是有限。简单来说,综指当前处于涨势中的横摆盘整格局,暂时未有转弱的迹象。 

HAPPY TRADING 

 

Saturday, January 28, 2012

A Peek Into The Week Ahead >>> On A Canter

Wall Street Week Ahead :
Key Jobs Report, Earnings & Data
ANALYSTS QUOTES
“The big news the last couple of weeks is the program they launched over in Europe, the lending facility to the banking system, seems to be working. The market seems unrattled.”

“This earnings season hasn’t been nearly as robust as the last couple; there’s a bias toward companies beating versus missing, which is reflecting a slow-growing economy.”

“We’ve had such a good run, one of the strongest we’ve had in a long time from the start of the year, so we’re overdue.”

“There are a lot of bullish surveys, which is usually a clear sign that things are going to correct.” 

“The program they launched over in Europe, the lending facility to the banking system, seems to be working, with yields on Spain and Italy’s sovereign debt making substantial moves in the right direction.” 

“We all know it’s just a matter of getting everyone lined up in terms of getting private investors to take a haircut, and here domestically, things have been headed in the right direction.” 

On negotiations of the Greece debt fiasco ..... "Important understandings were reached on legal and technical issues."

BSKL To Maintain Strong Risk Appetite 
Market expected to trend higher next week along with other regional markets
VIEWS & OPINIONS
"We view the dovish statement from the US Federal Reserve (that interest rates would remain exceptionally low until at least late 2014) was a positive surprise for investors."

 "Trading volume at the local bourse over the week was fairly heavy considering it being a holiday-shortened week, with many investors expected to return on Monday, the market is expected to be buoyant."

"The water dragon may rear it's head next week."

"We expect the Europeans to open the possibility of huge asset purchases to boost the global economy. Going forward, we believe the local equity market will maintain strong risk appetite, with commodities and emerging market currencies seeing strong demand."

"The local market would continue to be influenced by external events significantly despite local fundamentals remaining strong and speculative play ahead of the 13th general election." 

HAPPY WEEKEND & GONG XI FA CAI 

Friday, January 27, 2012

DJIA, SPX Surrender Early Gains on Disappointing Data

Nevertheless, the blue-chip barometer maintained a perch atop 12,700
U.S. stocks spent time on both sides of the breakeven line today, as Wall Street weighed hot-and-cold earnings and economic reports. Initially, stronger-than-expected quarterly reports from Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M Company (MMM) bolstered the blue chips, while Netflix (NFLX) lured buyers to the Internet sector. Furthermore, a bigger-than-expected jump in durable-goods orders also helped the bulls maintain the reins in early trading. 

However, a hefty quarterly loss from AT&T (T) tempered the Street's earnings enthusiasm, while a lackluster report on new-home sales and a rise in weekly jobless claims eventually tipped the scales in the bears' favor. 

Against this backdrop, stocks whittled their gains as the session progressed, with all three major market indexes in the red by the closing bell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,734.63) peaked at 12,841.95 in early trading, but eventually finished 22.3 points, or 0.2%, lower. Nevertheless, the 12,700 level stepped up to provide support. Among the index's 30 components, Caterpillar and 3M paced the six advancing equities, notching earnings-related gains of 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, AT&T led the bearish majority, surrendering 2.5%, while Cisco Systems (CSCO) finished flat.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,318.45) traded as high as 1,333.47 before performing an about-face, giving up 7.6 points, or 0.6%, when all was said and done. 

Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,805.28) jumped to 2,834.30 right out of the gate, but backpedaled to a loss of 13 points, or 0.5%, by the time the dust settled. Like the Dow, however, the tech-rich COMP found round-number support in afternoon trading, maintaining its perch atop the 2,800 level.

HAPPY TRADING 

Thursday, January 26, 2012

FKLI Daily Preview 26 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to start-off on a positive note after a decent performance on Wall Street overnight. Main driver was an announcement by the Fed to keep interest rates around current levels for the next couple of years in the hope of providing enough stimulus to the economy for a speedy recovery. 

Back home, FBMKLCI settled at 1519.76, slightly down by 0.19 percent. The index experienced some buying interest in the opening 30 minutes of trade where it touched its high. However, buying momentum could not be sustained as the bears exerted selling pressure for the remainder of the day. Re-emerging concerns surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis impacted banking counters, resulting in CIMB, Maybank and AmBank leading the index lower. Market sentiment holds positive, futures trades at a large premium of 9 points to the underlying cash.

Technicals
Futures gained 0.23 percent to settle at 1528.5. Buying interest saw futures touch a 5-1/2 month high in early trade. No follow through buying ensued as futures consolidated below 1530. Market on close saw a burst of buying, but futures could not convincingly break out of its range, instantaneously retracting to settle within its 4-week range. A look-a-like spinning top candle was formed indicating indecisiveness as investors eagerly await news from the World Economic Forum where the world’s most influential central bankers will convene to discuss the impact of the sovereign debt in Europe. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1525 and 1537 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1525.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Ichimoku Analysis For SPX Weekly 25 Jan 2012

TO FURTHER ENLARGE 
Please right click on images & choose "OPEN"
or
"OPEN IN NEW TAB" 


HAPPY TRENDING 

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Stock Highlight >>> UNISEM 5005

UNISEM 5005
To further ENLARGE imagesplease right click mouse and click "OPEN"
or
click "OPEN IN NEW TAB"
Refer to this link below UNISEM highlighted 16 Dec 2011 
 http://zlbursatheme.blogspot.com/2011/12/zlbt-random-stock-pick-5005-unisem-bhd.html
or April 24 2009 below
 http://zlbursatheme.blogspot.com/2009/04/5005-unisem-poised-for-breakout.html

HAPPY TRENDING 

GONG XI FA CAI 

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

FKLI Daily Previews 18 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade range bound today as US stocks on the whole recorded slight gains. The Street was buoyed on by better than expected GDP figures released from China despite growth slowing on a year-on year basis. 

However, no follow through buying was witnessed, as banking behemoth Citigroup contributed to limiting the gains as it lost 8 percent after reporting disappointing earnings. 

On the home front, FBMKLCI finished the day at 1519.36, up 0.68 percent. The index traded in a subdued fashion for the first half of the day as investors stayed cautious. Nevertheless, during the afternoon session, the index proceeded to trade higher following regional markets after a slew of encouraging economic data out of China lifted world markets. Market sentiment remained positive as futures trades at a 2.5 points premium to the underlying cash.

Overnight Leads
U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 to its highest since early August, but sharply pared gains late in the session as Citigroup's steep drop in profit gave investors a reason to unload bank shares.

Technicals
Futures settled at 1522.0, up 0.79 percent. Four consecutive days of black candles was snapped by the formation of a long white candle. The bulls controlled the market booking most of their gains in the afternoon session. Investors continued to stay sidelined evident by the light trading. MACD remains on a bearish divergence path and futures 3-week trading range still intact. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1510 and 1532 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1510.

HAPPY TRADING 

Monday, January 16, 2012

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2012-01-16 / FBMKLCI 2012-01-16

综合指数 2012-01-16
随着上周五美国股市出现回调,富时大马综合指数(综指)周一下挫14.01点或0.92%,以1509.06点挂收。如图中箭头A所示,综指目前正要试探142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态支持线及L1上升趋势线。综指阻力水平维持在1530点。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周一减少18.71%,因此成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA)的水平。换句话说,若成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线以下的话,那表示马股整体上的交投还是属于淡静的。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)周一跌破了70%50%的水平,这表示综指短期强势的讯号暂时已告一段落。如今正在试探30%水平,若随机指标接下来跌破30%水平,那便是综指短期进入弱势的讯号。

总的来说,综指出现技术调整,但是由于继续获得142131天动态支持线及L1线的扶持,所以涨势还是完整的。若综指接下来跌破142131EMAL1线的话,那涨势将会受到破坏,但并不表示综指将立即转为跌势。

Composite Index 2012-01-16
Due to the last Friday's losses of the US market, the KLCI retreated 14.01 points or 0.92% on Monday, closing at 1509.06 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is now testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support as well as the L1 uptrend line.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 18.71%, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is relatively quiet.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 70% and 50% on Monday, which marks an end to the short term bullish movement. The Stochastic is now testing 30%, and if the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would be entering a short term bearish territory.

In conclusion, despite the retreat on Monday, the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact,as long as the KLCI could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. If the KLCI should break below the dynamic support, the uptrend could be violated, but it does not necessary mean an immediate bearish reversal.

HAPPY TRADING 

Question asked, question answered

15 Jan 12, 18:09
Question CBK: ZL>> European Debt Downgraded will have big impact on Monday's market? any plan on monday? buy on dip? TQ

Answer ZL : Investors next week will digest Friday’s announcement by Standard and Poor’s that the ratings firm downgraded several of Europe’s largest economies, including France and Italy. Financial markets are unlikely to be derailed by mass euro zone downgrades but with Greek debt talks at an impasse, pressure has been loaded on the bloc to shore up its defenses and glimmers of optimism from last week have been firmly doused.

With the United States and Japan already downgraded from "AAA" the likes of France and Austria are in good company and Standard & Poor's ratings cuts had been flagged in December. Although nobody is excited about the S&P decision, the step may actually help to get a quick agreement on the fiscal compact.

From a 15 mins DJIA Chart view
Nothing more than a minor dent at the fender. Not enough to put the vehicle off alignment

From a weekly DJIA Chart view
Bullish Wave 5 of the Dow Weekly is very much on track. Should prevail when corporate earning reports shift gears.
 BSKL will rise & fall in tandem with DJIA >>>> as per norm.

HAPPY TRADING 
 

Saturday, January 14, 2012

WALL STREET : Stocks Claw Back From Heavy Losses

U.S. Stocks Fall on European Debt Downgrade,
End Week in Black
U.S. stocks began Friday pointed south, and ended the session on a decidedly downbeat note. The dive was ignited on a "modestly disappointing" fourth-quarter report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and word that Bank of America (BAC) could scale down its U.S. efforts. The Street was also fretting over possible debt downgrades for European Union (EU) nations. Yet, it wasn't until after midday that the hype came to fruition in the form of a downgrade to France's triple-A credit rating from Standard and Poor's (S&P). The latest consumer sentiment index reading was the only true bright spot of the day, but any semblance of optimism from that report was all but forgotten. Against this drab backdrop, all three major market indexes closed with a loss, but ended the week in the black.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,422.06) ended the day down nearly 49 points, or 0.4%, after touching an intraday low of 12,311.79. Among the Dow's 30 components, only nine finished higher, led by a 1.1% jump by Chevron (CVX). BAC and JPM paced the bearish majority with declines of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Verizon (VZ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) finished unchanged. For the week, the blue-chip barometer eked out a 0.5% gain.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,289.09) backpedaled 6.4 points, or 0.5%. However, the broad-market barometer turned in a 0.9% increase for the week. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,710.67) fared the worst of its counterparts with a roughly 14-point, or 0.5%, drop, but finished the week with a 1.4% trek into positive territory.

ANALYSTS QUOTES
"While we cannot say that consumers are 'optimistic,' they appear much less pessimistic compared to last summer when news on the [eurozone] debt crisis turned particularly ugly and the debt-ceiling debate was fought."

“The political agreement does not supply sufficient additional resources or operational flexibility to bolster European rescue operations, or extend enough support for those euro zone sovereigns subjected to heightened market pressures.”

 “It is not the rating agencies who dictate French policy.”

HAPPY WEEKEND 

Friday, January 13, 2012

FKLI >>> Daily Preview / Technicals 13 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to continue its range bound trading as investors seek more convincing economic data to enter the market. US markets were slightly higher overnight, however data showing jobless claims had crept up limited gains on the upside. 

On the home front, FBMKLCI settled at 1525.56, up 0.21 percent. The index traded range bound with an upwards bias as investors continued to stay sidelined due to a lack of any concrete leads.

Gaming stock Genting lead the index higher, followed closely by Tenaga and Maybank. Market sentiment turned negative as futures reversed its position against the underlying to a discount of 1 point.

Technicals
Futures settled marginally higher at 1524.5, up 0.03 percent. Trading was uneventful as futures traded within a tight range of circa 7 points. Volume remained light ahead of the auctioning of Italian and Spanish bonds. Indicators turned bearish with the second successive black candle formed, and MACD at the point of a bearish divergence cross-over. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1518 and 1532 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1518.

GOODLUCK2U 

U.S. Stocks Edge Higher on Cautious Optimism Out of Europe 13/01/2012

Industrial, Material Shares Lift Wall Street
A late-session rally in industrial and basic materials stocks offset losses seen across the energy sector, lifting the markets into positive territory on the day.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21.6 points, or 0.17%, to 12471, the S&P 500 rose 3 points, or 0.23%, to 1296 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 13.9 points, or 0.51%, to 2725.

Market participants parsed through a slew of European and economic developments on Thursday.

From Monday till Thursday's close, the Dow is up +111.10 or +0.90% with 1 more session to complete an enthused week.

Analyst's Quote
“We’re breathing pretty shallow until we get developments on both fronts,” he added, pointing to corporate results and, in particular, guidance, along with aggressive enough steps by European leaders to assuage worry about the ramifications of the region’s debt crisis. “Stronger moves by the [European Central Bank] would be one, then maybe the market would give Europe some time to heal some of the wounds.”

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL 

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2012年 01月 11日 / FBMKLCI 11/01/2012

综合指数 201201 11
 富时大马综合指数(综指)周三继续在窄幅中波动,按日微扬0.3点以1522.29点挂收。如图中箭头A所示,综指依然获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线及L1上升趋势线的扶持,这表示综指目前还是处于涨势中。综指阻力水平保持在1530点的水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加2.82%,因此成交量保持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。这表示马股当前整体上的交投还是活跃起来。可是美中不足的是,活跃的股项大多数仍然是低价股及凭单,而这未必能真正的反映出有新资金的流入,或投资者已对马股恢复信心。无论如何,若马股总成交量能继续维持在40天的成交量平均线以上,那将有利于综指或马股维持在涨势中。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续处于70%水平的短期强势区域里,这表示综指短期的走势还是偏强的。若随机指标跌破70%水平时,表示短期强势暂时告一段落或综指短期开始技术调整的讯号。

总的来说,综指当前的技术展望仍然处于正面的,而只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持,那涨势将有望持续下去。

FBM KLCI 11 Jan 2012 
The KLCI was trading at narrow range again on Wednesday, closing 0.3 of a point higher at 1522.29 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI remains supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support together with the L1 uptrend line. This suggests that the KLCI uptrend is still intact. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1530.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.82%, with volume above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is now relatively well-participated, but however, most of the actively traded counters are still penny stocks and call warrants, and therefore, this might not be able to truly reflect the improvement of market confidence as well as the improvement of capital inflow.

As circled at C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would mark an end to this short term bullish movement, and also signal a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI remains positive, as long as it could stay above the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

祝你好运

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

FKLI sentiment positive, prices to challenge resistance 11 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade higher today as US stocks reached a 5-month high as investors took as bullish stance towards material stocks. Sentiment improved for those watching the debt crisis in Europe after influential ratings agency Fitch dismissed cutting France’s rating this year. However, key auctions of Italian and Spanish bonds later this week will give a much clearer indication of the state of Europe’s finances. 

Back home, FBMKLCI settled marginally higher at 1521.99, up 0.26 percent. The index traded within a tight range of circa 5 points in an uninspiring trading session. A lack of any significant leads and global economic uncertainties resulted in light trading as investors stayed sidelined. Market sentiment remained in positive territory as futures extended its premium over the underlying cash market to 5 points.


Overnight Leads
U.S. stocks climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday, led by materials stocks after an upbeat forecast by aluminum company Alcoa and strong gains in bank shares.



Technicals
Futures settled at 1527, up 0.16 percent after recording its 4th consecutive white candle to continue its bullish trend. The day’s trading was uneventful as futures traded within a tight range. MACD continues to diverge against its 9-day moving average. Look for futures to test the 1532 level, a sustained break above this level will lead futures to advance towards 1550 and fill the gapdown made in the first week of August last year. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1527 and 1550 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1527.

HAPPY TRADING 

WALL STREET : DJIA Chart & Commentaries 11 Jan 2012

Dow boosted by lower Dollar, Alcoa
To further ENLARGE image please right click on mouse follow by choosing
"OPEN" or "OPEN IN NEW TAB"
 
HAPPY TRADING 

Monday, January 9, 2012

FCPO >>> The Andrew's Pitchfork 09 Jan 2012

Fundamental
Palm oil gained 0.66% percent last Friday, as Asian investors were anticipating better data from Friday evening’s US nonfarm payroll report. Adverse weather threatening regional plantation harvest had also helped lifting the prices. Further upside potential will depend on tomorrow’s 1-10th January export figures and MPOB’s fundamental data. 

NYMEX crude oil was down 0.3 percent as stronger dollar overshadowed better US job growth. US soyoil tumbled 1.6 percent on technical selling and bearish uncertainty of crop weather in South America. Expect futures to trade range bound with upward bias, as traders may start their buying spree before the expected decline in palm inventory figures from MPOB tomorrow.

Technicals
Futures traded up 21 points and settled at 3211 with a long white candle. The piercing line candle pattern, reflecting the white candle positioned lower than a long black, indicates possible bullish reversal trend. With divergence in MACD deemed firm, bullish investors may be convinced that northward journey will be pursued. As such, support and resistance to be pegged at 3150 and 3240 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on close below 3175.

HAPPY TRADING 

FKLI Preview / Technical Outlook 09 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade range bound today as Wall Street prepares itself for the publication of company’s 4th quarter earning reports, starting this week. US jobless counts near a low of 3-years however European debt issues still linger. 

Back home, FBMKLCI ended the day at par, outperforming the regional counterparts. The index traded lower throughout the morning session before consolidating near its low for the bulk of the afternoon. Late buying interest helped the index recoup the day’s losses as it settled at 1514.13. Leading laggards on the index were banking and plantation stocks. Market sentiment remains buoyant as futures trades at a 9 points premium.

Technicals
Futures settled higher at 1523.5, up 0.49 percent. Indecisiveness in the market resulted in range bound trading with light volume. A white candle was formed indicating bullish activity assisted by some late buying as futures settled just off its high for the day. Indicators remain positive showing futures above its 200-day moving average and MACD back on a bullish divergence path. As such, support and resistance levels pegged
at 1510 and 1540.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1510.

HAPPY TRADING 

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Random Charts Technical Analysis >>> Crude Oil + Soybean Oil

 To further ENLARGE images >>> Pls right click mouse and choose "OPEN" or OPEN IN NEW TAB"
HAPPY WEEKEND

WALL STREET : U.S. stocks drop Friday, rally for week

Wall Street Kicks Off 2012 With Weekly Gain
 But Euro Anxiety Persists
A cheery first week
The markets kicked off 2012 in a cheery mood, rallying more than 1% this week as traders reacted to an abundance of positive data on the economy, but European woes stilled weighed heavily on traders' sentiment.

U.S. stocks mostly declined Friday, cutting into weekly gains, as investors measured further evidence of an improving labor market against Europe’s troubles, illustrated by the euro’s decline.

“The euro continues to fall, and I think that puts a lot of downward pressure on our stock market. We’re a global economy now, and if banks fail in Europe we need to be concerned,” said a senior equity analyst.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55.8 points, or 0.45%, to 12360, the S&P 500 dipped 3.3 points, or 0.25%, to 1278 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.4 points, or 0.16%, to 2674.
Despite Friday's weak performance.

The Dow climbed 1.2% for the week, the S&P 500 jumped 1.6% and the Nasdaq zoomed 2.7% higher.

HAPPY WEEKEND 

Friday, January 6, 2012

FBM KLCI >>> Reviews and Outlook 06 Jan 2012

Stocks staged rebound on mild bargain hunting interest on Thursday following two days of profit-taking correction which saw prices fall to more attractive levels. The KLCI recovered 10.21 points to close near session highs at 1,514.43, as gainers led losers 467 to 325 on steady trade totaling 1.67bn shares worth RM1.46bn.

Lower liners should bounce back on rotational buying interest, while selected blue chips which appear toppish need to consolidate and neutralize the overbought technical momentum before stabilizing.

Resistance remains at 1,529, the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the 1,597 to 1,310 sell-off, next would be the 1,565/1,566 level, followed by the 18 Jan 2011 peak of 1,576, and ultimately the record high of 1,597 of 11 July. Immediate support stays at the previous 200-day moving average resistance, now leveling at 1,501, next will be at 1,488, the 61.8%FR followed by 1,474, the current 50-day moving average, and then the 100- day moving average which is now at 1,456.

HAPPY TRADING 

FKLI >>> Previews and Technicals 06 Jan 2012

Preview
Expect futures to trade range bound today with an upward bias. US stocks continued their new year rally with banking stocks leading the charge. A slew of encouraging economic data lately has given investors the perception the world’s largest economy is stabilizing despite dismal performances over in Europe from their
ongoing debt issues. 

Back home, FBMKLCI gained 0.68 percent to finish the day at 1514.43. The index experienced a surge forward in early trade before a slight pull back to end the morning session flat. The afternoon session saw the bulls resurface, foreign funds being the main instigators as they bought into select blue chip stocks. A variety of sectors from plantation to telecommunication stocks led the index higher. Sentiment remained positive as futures trades at 1.5 points premium to the underlying cash.

Technicals
Futures settled at 1516, up 0.73 percent. Futures gains can mostly be attributed to the early morning trade where it touched its high of 1521 before retracting into consolidation mode for the remainder of the day, hovering around its closing price. A white bodied candle was formed evident of the bullish action seen. Indicators remained upbeat as futures holds above its 200-day moving average and MACD back on a divergence against its 9-day moving average. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1510 and 1532 respectively.

Overnight Leads
Banks led Wall Street to gains on Thursday even as Europe struggled again, a sign investors are betting a relatively strong U.S. economy will help U.S. stocks outperform other markets.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1510.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

WALL STREET : Auto Sales Help DJIA

Bluechips rises to highest level since July 2011
Auto Sales Trump Euro Worries
The major market indexes explored both sides of breakeven today, as Wall Street weighed concerns about Europe and Iran against relatively healthy auto sales. Right out of the gate, U.S. stocks dipped in the face of unconfirmed reports that Spain could request additional bailout funds, which sent Spanish bond yields soaring. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between Iran and the West also spooked a few buyers, but sent crude oil and gold futures into the black. However, reports of solid vehicle sales among U.S. automakers last month helped to tip the scales in the bulls' favor, though stocks' upward momentum remained relatively modest, thanks to jitters ahead of a round of end-of-week payrolls reports. Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) extended their 2012 climb, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) ended a choppy session just south of breakeven.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,418.42) elbowed its way to a gain of 21 points, or 0.2%, to end north of 12,400 for the first time since late July. All but 10 of the Dow's 30 components settled higher, with both Alcoa (AA) and Microsoft (MSFT) tacking on 2.4%. On the other hand, Verizon Communications (VZ) paced the bearish minority, giving up 1.3%.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,277.30) eked out a gain of just 0.2 point, or 0.02%, after exploring a range of roughly 10 points. On the flip side, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,648.36) wasn't as fortunate as its peers, giving back 0.4 point, or 0.01%, by the time the dust settled.

HAPPY TRADING 

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

CPO Overviews >>> Fundamentals and Technicals

Fundamental
Palm oil soared 1.57 percent on the first trading day of the year, lifted by firm crude oil market and weather concerns in South East Asia region which may cause harvest-disrupting floods. Market sentiment improved as decline in outbound shipment is moderating. Cargo surveyors, Intertek Testing Services & Societe Generale de Surveillance, said export for full month of December was down 2.6 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. NYMEX crude oil rocketed 4.18 percent due to escalated political tension between US Navy and Iran near
Persian Gulf area. US soyoil gained 1.5 percent, boosted by weaker dollar and hot weather in Argentina threatening crop growth. Expect futures to trade higher, tracking spillover strength in commodity markets and encouraging US manufacturing data last night.


Overnight Leads
US soybean futures ended at their highest level in two months, fueled by broad-based speculative buying across asset classes. Commodity-wide buying was sparked by weakness in the US dollar, combined with ongoing fear of yield losses in South America due to heat and dryness to propel prices.


Technicals
Futures opened 34 points higher and finished at 3225. An inverted hammer formation may suggest bearish reversal signal to the remarkable gain of nearly 10 percent in the past two trading session. Despite firm bullish trend image reflected in MACD, buyers are urged to trade cautiously as price deems attractive for profit taking. As such, support and resistance to be pegged at 3150 and 3250 respectively.

Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with stop on close below 3180.

FKLI may continue range trading

Preview
Expect futures to trade higher today taking cue from overnight US markets. Wall Street was spurred on by encouraging economic data showing that manufacturing sector growth was at
its highest in 6 months. On the home front, 2012 got off to a dismal start as the FBMKLCI fell 1.12 percent to finish the day at 1513.54. The index opened lower and proceeded to trade lower throughout the day. Profit-taking activities was the main catalyst as investors booked their profits given the large gains towards the close of 2011. Banking stocks were the primary lags on the index with banking heavyweights Maybank, CIMB and Public Bank leading the way. Market sentiment is positive as futures reversed its position to the underlying cash to 11 points.

Technicals
Futures settled at 1524.5, up 0.20 percent. Futures traded range bound throughout the day to eventually form a short-bodied white candle. Volume remained light with many investors still on
their festive breaks. Indicators remain bullish as futures still holds well above its 200-day moving average and MACD continues to diverge against its 9-day moving average. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1518 and 1536 respectively.

Strategy : Aggressive trade may long with stop on below 1518

WALL STREET : Dow kicks off 2012 with a +179.82 rally

Stocks, Commodities Kick Off New Year on a High Note
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,397.38) rallied as high as 12,479.65 before paring its lead in the final minutes of trading, but still finished with a respectable gain of 179.8 points, or 1.5%. Among the Dow's 30 components, McDonald's (MCD) -- the best-performing blue chip of 2011 -- led the four laggards, giving up 1.5%. On the flip side, Alcoa (AA) paced the bullish majority by soaring 6.7%.
 The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,277.06) touched an intraday acme of 1,284.62, but cut its gain to 19.5 points, or 1.6%, by the time the dust settled. As alluded to earlier, a strong start to the year tends to bode well for the SPX's 12-month trajectory, as Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White pointed out. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,648.72) fared the best of its peers today, adding 43.6 points, or 1.7%. Earlier, the tech-rich index climaxed at 2,665.90.

Crude Oil (Feb) Technical Analysis
February crude oil closed $4.13 or 4.2% higher on Tuesday to close at $102.96 as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 103.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is November's high crossing at 103.28. 
Second resistance is the May 2011 high crossing at 105.34. 
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.70. 
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-November
rally crossing at 92.73.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL 

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2012年 01月 03日 / FBMKLCI 03/01/2012

综合指数 201201 03
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)在2012年首个交易日下跌,这是综指上扬突破1500点及200天移动平均线后的拉回效应(Pullback Effect)。综指按日下跌17.19点或1.2%,以1513.54点挂收。不过,综指涨势依然是完整的,而图中所示的L1线仍然是综指的上升趋势线。综指当前阻力水平落在15291530点的费氏线,支持水平则是1500点及200天的移动平均。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周二增加了20.7%,但是却始终维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。这表示马股整体上的交投仍然属于淡静的,而严格来说,暗示着投资者对马股还未完全恢复信心。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)虽然周二下滑,但是依然能维持在70%水平以上,这表示综指短期还是处于强势区域里,直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

总的来说,综指虽然上周突破1500点及200天移动平均线,但是由于马股总成交量未能明显的增加,因此此突破的讯号还不算强。如今综指出现拉回效应,若综指继续下调并跌破再次跌回200天移动平均线或1500点支持水平的话,那表示综指长期的走势还未能恢复牛市格局。无论如何,只要综指还是能维持在L1上升趋势线以上的话,那综指当前的技术展望将还是处于正面的。

FBM KLCI 03 Jan 2012
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 17.19 points or 1.2% lower on the first day of 2012, closing at 1513.54 points. The KLCI is having a pull-back effect after breaking above the 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, but the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact, as the L1 line is still the uptrend line of the KLCI. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1530 Fibonacci, while the support is at 1500 and the 200-day MA.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 20.7%, but still below the 40-day volume moving average line. This suggests that the overall market is still not yet actively participated, as it implies that investors are still not feeling confident about the local market.

As indicated by C, despite the Stochastic is falling on Tuesday, it stays above 70% in the short term bullish territory, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive.

In conclusion, despite breaking above the 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, the break out was only accompanied by thin volume, thus the break out was not strong. Now that the KLCI is having a pullback effect, it is crucial for the KLCI to stay above 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, or the long term movement shall remains bearish biased. However, the technical outlook for the KLCI for now is still positive, provided that the KLCI could stay above the L1 uptrend line.

HAPPY TRADING