如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）在2012年首个交易日下跌，这是综指上扬突破1500点及200天移动平均线后的拉回效应（Pullback Effect）。综指按日下跌17.19点或1.2%，以1513.54点挂收。不过，综指涨势依然是完整的，而图中所示的L1线仍然是综指的上升趋势线。综指当前阻力水平落在1529或1530点的费氏线，支持水平则是1500点及200天的移动平均。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二增加了20.7%，但是却始终维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股整体上的交投仍然属于淡静的，而严格来说，暗示着投资者对马股还未完全恢复信心。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）虽然周二下滑，但是依然能维持在70%水平以上，这表示综指短期还是处于强势区域里，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。
总的来说，综指虽然上周突破1500点及200天移动平均线，但是由于马股总成交量未能明显的增加，因此此突破的讯号还不算强。如今综指出现拉回效应，若综指继续下调并跌破再次跌回200天移动平均线或1500点支持水平的话，那表示综指长期的走势还未能恢复牛市格局。无论如何，只要综指还是能维持在L1上升趋势线以上的话，那综指当前的技术展望将还是处于正面的。
FBM KLCI 03 Jan 2012
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 17.19 points or 1.2% lower on the first day of 2012, closing at 1513.54 points. The KLCI is having a pull-back effect after breaking above the 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, but the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact, as the L1 line is still the uptrend line of the KLCI. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1530 Fibonacci, while the support is at 1500 and the 200-day MA.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 20.7%, but still below the 40-day volume moving average line. This suggests that the overall market is still not yet actively participated, as it implies that investors are still not feeling confident about the local market.
As indicated by C, despite the Stochastic is falling on Tuesday, it stays above 70% in the short term bullish territory, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive.
In conclusion, despite breaking above the 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, the break out was only accompanied by thin volume, thus the break out was not strong. Now that the KLCI is having a pullback effect, it is crucial for the KLCI to stay above 1500 and the 200-day Moving Average, or the long term movement shall remains bearish biased. However, the technical outlook for the KLCI for now is still positive, provided that the KLCI could stay above the L1 uptrend line.
HAPPY TRADING
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