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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2012年 01月 11日 / FBMKLCI 11/01/2012

综合指数 201201 11
 富时大马综合指数(综指)周三继续在窄幅中波动,按日微扬0.3点以1522.29点挂收。如图中箭头A所示,综指依然获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线及L1上升趋势线的扶持,这表示综指目前还是处于涨势中。综指阻力水平保持在1530点的水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加2.82%,因此成交量保持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。这表示马股当前整体上的交投还是活跃起来。可是美中不足的是,活跃的股项大多数仍然是低价股及凭单,而这未必能真正的反映出有新资金的流入,或投资者已对马股恢复信心。无论如何,若马股总成交量能继续维持在40天的成交量平均线以上,那将有利于综指或马股维持在涨势中。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续处于70%水平的短期强势区域里,这表示综指短期的走势还是偏强的。若随机指标跌破70%水平时,表示短期强势暂时告一段落或综指短期开始技术调整的讯号。

总的来说,综指当前的技术展望仍然处于正面的,而只要综指能继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持,那涨势将有望持续下去。

FBM KLCI 11 Jan 2012 
The KLCI was trading at narrow range again on Wednesday, closing 0.3 of a point higher at 1522.29 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI remains supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support together with the L1 uptrend line. This suggests that the KLCI uptrend is still intact. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1530.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.82%, with volume above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the market is now relatively well-participated, but however, most of the actively traded counters are still penny stocks and call warrants, and therefore, this might not be able to truly reflect the improvement of market confidence as well as the improvement of capital inflow.

As circled at C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would mark an end to this short term bullish movement, and also signal a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI remains positive, as long as it could stay above the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

祝你好运

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