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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Technical Analysis >>> Soybean Oil May (ZLK12)

May soybean oil closed up 151-pts. at 55.10.

May soybean oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday due to spillover strength from soybeans, corn and wheat. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. 
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 53.66 would open the door for a test of March's low crossing at 52.88. 
If May renews this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-decline crossing at 56.42 is the next upside target. 
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 55.82. 
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-decline crossing at 56.42. 
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 53.59. 
Second support is March's low crossing at 52.88.


Thursday, March 29, 2012

FKLI Preview / Technical Outlook 29 Mar 2012

Expect futures to trade with a downward bias after a decline overnight in the US markets. Durable goods data came in weaker than expected which deflated investor’s confidence as well as a sharp fall in US crude prices, which may indicate a faltering economic recovery. Back home, FBMKLCI settled at 1583.75, down 0.27 percent. The index traded gradually lower throughout the day as a consequence of a lack of fresh leads as well as light profit taking activities. Banking giant CIMB was once again the leading lag on the index followed by IOI and Tenaga. Market sentiment remains positive although futures premium over the underlying cash was cut to circa 1.5 points

Futures finished the day at 1585.5, off by 0.41 percent. Investors took the chance to book profits after prices climbed on Tuesday on the back of encouraging news from the Fed.

Trading was depicted by the formation of a short-bodied black candle as prices set back into consolidation mode whilst closing the gap-up made on Tuesday’s opening. MACD resumes its bearish divergence course. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1578 and 1588 respectively.

Overnight Leads
U.S. stocks declined on Wednesday as sliding oil and metals prices gave investors a reason to sell commodity-related shares.

Aggressive trade may short with a stop on or above 1588.0

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 20/03/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-27

FBM KLCI 27 Mar 2012
 With the exception of the Shanghai Composite Index, most of the Asian markets ended higher, as driven by the over-night strong gains of the US markets. As indicated by A, the KLCI rose 5.12 points or 0.32%, closing at 1588.10 points. The KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, while the resistance stays at 1597.08 or 1600.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 29.83%, but volume is still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market in a whole is still lightly participated. Technically, more volume is needed to sustain the bullish movement, especially when the KLCI is testing its historical high.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in its short-term bullish territory. This suggests that the KLCI short-term movement is still positive. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a short-term technical correction.

In conclusion, the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact, with positive technical outlook. However, if the KLCI should sustain this uptrend, it would have to break above its resistance, and equally important, more volume is needed.

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-27





Monday, March 26, 2012

Middle Bollinger Rangebound Stocks x 30 4ur Perusal

*Note: To qualify in the list below, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL. 
Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective daily charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns.
Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the 30-day, and negative if it remains below this average.

14-day RSI: A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day SMA should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day SMA is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk.

Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price touches the upper band. 

Momentum traders will buy on price breaks above the upper band, and sell when price
breaks below the lower band. Alternatively, a sharp move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band, a useful observation when projecting price targets.

The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the report. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any futures product referred to herein. The Author may from time to time has an interest or position in the futures products or stocks mentioned. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks,futures & derivatives like products.

Ichimoku Analysis on Dow Jones Industrial Weekly 26 Mar 2012

Let's  look at the weekly DOW charts using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and it is clearly very bullish. Tenkan Sen (pink line) is above Kijun Sen (turquoise line), Chikou Span (green line) is above price and Kumo, and the future Kumo cloud is thickening and sloping up.

You will notice that the thick Kumo cloud supported prices during the last quarter of 2011, and ever since prices broke above the Kumo, there has been no u-turn. The bull run looks inclined to resume. 

However, there are two concerns for the bulls:

1. The Kumo cloud all the way into June 2012 is relatively thin, offering weak support.
2. Tenkan Sen is very far from Kijun Sen, the latter representing price equilibrium. Prices tend to retrace towards equilibrium, especially when the Kijun Sen is a flat horizontal line as pictured in the chart.
For the bulls, it is probably wiser to wait for a retracement to the Kijun Sen for a higher reward:risk bullish trade, while bears should wait for a breakdown below the Kumo cloud.  

If PM Najib is seeking a steady Malaysian economic outlook  timed for the imminent GE 13,  this  periodic DJIA chart will be a good call to dissolve Parlimen soon.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 20/03/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-20

FBM KLCI 20 Mar 2012
On Tuesday, the KLCI continues its sideways consolidation, gaining 4.02 points or 0.26% to close at 1577.62 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support and the uptrend is still intact. Resistance stays at 1597.08 or the 1600 level.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 18.53%, with volume breaking above the 40-day Volume MovingAverage.  

Technically, this suggests that the market participation is not at a 'sufficient' level. However, the most of the actively participated counters are still low-priced stocks or their warrants, and coupled with higher numbers of losers over gainers (431 to 314), the increased of volume might not be able to reflect the improvement of investors confidence.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still rising, after breaking above 30%. Technically, if the Stochastic should break above 70%, it would be entering the short-term bullish territory, thus suggesting a short-term positive signal for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the uptrend for the KLCI remains intact, while the KLCI consolidation continues. If the KLCI could form higher-lows after being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend is likely to extend further. Of course, this bullish signal must be accompanied by strong volume.

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-20





Monday, March 19, 2012

FKLI Spot >>> Technical Chart 19 Mar 2012

Brain Dead Simple
No rocket science needed
 Trade Strategy

Friday, March 16, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 16/03/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-16

FBM KLCI 16 Mar 2012
On Friday, the KLCI opened higher, but during the afternoon trading session, it started to weaken before falling 7.98 points or 0.51% to close at 1571.40 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is re-testing the L1 uptrend line, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support again. Resistance for the KLCI stays at 1597.08 or 1600.

As indicated by B, total market volume gained 77.56%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. However, most of the heavily traded counters are low-priced stocks, and therefore, the increased of volume failed to reflect any improvement of investors confidence.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic falls below 30% on Friday, re-entering the short-term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should continue to stay below 30%, the short-term movement of the KLCI is likely to stay weak.

In conclusion, if the KLCI should break below the L1 uptrend line, the uptrend will be temporarily interrupted. However, it does not mean that the KLCI would immediately reverse and form a downtrend, not until the KLCI has formed lower-highs, which is one of the characteristic of downtrend formation.

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-16





FKLI >>> Previews / Technicals 16 Mar 2012

Expect futures to trade range bound with an upwards bias after US stocks advanced last night and the S&P climbed to its highest level since the 2008 mortgage crisis. Investors’confidence is buoyant as the US continues to churn out betterthan-expected economic data, lending thought that the global economy is making ground into its recovery.

Back home, FBMKLCI settled at 1579.38, up 0.23 percent. Trading was uneventful as the index set in to consolidation mode due to a lack of fresh leads. The index was sold down during the AM session, however recovered in the PM session with late buying interest at market on close helping to push the index into positive territory. Banking counters CIMB and Maybank were the leading movers. Market sentiment improved with futures trading at a 2.5 points premium to the underlying cash.
Futures settled at 1582, up 0.35 percent. Futures started the day off on a positive note, opening with a gap-up, then proceeded to trade within a tight range of circa 4 points for the majority of the day. A look-a-like spinning top candle was formed indicating indecisiveness in the market as investors tread cautiously further highlighted by the light volume. Futures now trades well above its 20-day moving average. As such, support and resistance levels pegged at 1576 and 1590 respectively.

Overnight Leads
The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis on Thursday as stocks resumed the upward climb that has produced a steady stream of gains this year.

Intraday Strategy
Aggressive trade may long with a stop on or below 1576.0

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Technical Charts >>> FKLI / FCPO 13 Mar 2012

Rebound Unsuccessful
Another technical rebound anticipated around or before 1558 region.
Volatility expected as CPO head towards 3500 target.
Stormy Wave 5 Ahead 

FKLI : Preview & Technical Outlook 13 Mar 2012

Expect futures to trade range bound today after a relatively flat performance in the overnight US markets as investors wait for clues in regards to monetary policy from the Federal Open Market Committee later on today. Back home, FBMKLCI settled at 1564.75, down nearly 1 percent. The index gradually traded lower throughout the day as investors indulged in profit taking activities. Furthermore, as news filtered through that China reported a trade deficit of $31.5bn for the month of February, its largest deficit for over a decade, concerns that deeper economic issues in the second largest economy may arise. A mixture of counters were sold down, with Petronas Chemicals, Sime Darby and Axiata amongst the leading stocks. Market sentiment remained neutral as futures and the underlying cash are almost at par. 

Futures settled at 1565.0, down 0.76 percent. From the onset, futures came under selling pressure as the bears pushed prices lower throughout the trading sessions. A long black candle was formed from the day’s trading action as futures settled below its 20-day moving average for the first time in just over 2 months.

Further indication of a bearish trend developing is evident from the bearish divergence course futures is now on. As such, support and resistance levels are pegged at 1558 and 1574 respectively. 

Defensive names rallied in an otherwise flat day for Wall Street on Monday as investors paused after recent gains and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement.

Intraday Strategy 
Aggressive trade may long with a stop on or below 1558.0.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 09 Mar 2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-09

FBM KLCI 09 Mar 2012

The KLCI was trading in a narrow range on Friday, gaining 0.64 points to close at 1579 points. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI and the resistance stays at 1597.08 or 1600 mark.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 26.15%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Market overall is still quiet, as investors are taking caution amid the key index is approaching its historical high.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays below 70%, thus not yet giving any short-term bullish signal. If the Stochastic should stay around 50%, the KLCI is likely to consolidate in a sideways manner.

In conclusion, the KLCI stays above the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the uptrend line, thus the uptrend is still intact. But still, due to the lower market participation, the sustainability of the uptrend is doubtful. If the KLCI should form higher-lows, and resume its uptrend, a significant increased of volume is needed to confirm such move.

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-09
富时大马综合指数周五在窄幅中波动,按日微扬0.64点以1579点挂收。如图中箭头A所示,142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)依然是综指当前的动态支持线,而综指阻力保持在1597.08点或1600点的心理整数水平。





Monday, March 5, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 05/03/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-05

FBM KLCI 05 March 2012
The KLCI had its daily high reaching 1594.72 points, but as it was approaching the 1597.08 historical high, profit taking pulled the KLCI slightly and easing some of the early gains. At the close, the KLCI was at 1589.22, gaining 5.44 points or 0.32%. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1600 while the support is the 14, 21, 31 EMA as indicated by A.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 11.14%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is relatively quiet, as investors stay cautious amid the key index is testing its historical high.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short-term bullish territory. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still positive. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a short-term technical correction.

In conclusion, despite the lower volume, the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact. Even if the KLCI should retreat from near 1600 mark, it is still a normal reaction. Provided that the KLCI should still be supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA or repeating higher-lows formation, the technical outlook is still positive. 

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-05