Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 16/03/2012 富时大马综合指数 2012-03-16

FBM KLCI 16 Mar 2012

On Friday, the KLCI opened higher, but during the afternoon trading session, it started to weaken before falling 7.98 points or 0.51% to close at 1571.40 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI is re-testing the L1 uptrend line, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support again. Resistance for the KLCI stays at 1597.08 or 1600.

As indicated by B, total market volume gained 77.56%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. However, most of the heavily traded counters are low-priced stocks, and therefore, the increased of volume failed to reflect any improvement of investors confidence.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic falls below 30% on Friday, re-entering the short-term bearish territory. If the Stochastic should continue to stay below 30%, the short-term movement of the KLCI is likely to stay weak.

In conclusion, if the KLCI should break below the L1 uptrend line, the uptrend will be temporarily interrupted. However, it does not mean that the KLCI would immediately reverse and form a downtrend, not until the KLCI has formed lower-highs, which is one of the characteristic of downtrend formation.

富时大马综合指数  2012-03-16

富时大马综合指数周五一度开高，但在午盘后开始回软，更在收市前下跌，以1571.40点挂收，按日下跌7.98点或0.51%。如图中箭头A所示，综指再次试探L1的上升趋势线及14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线。综指阻力依然是1597.08点及1600点的整数水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加了77.56%，并上扬突破了40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。不过，由于周五活跃的股项多数是低价股，因此这成交量的增加，未能真正反映出投资者信心回笼的讯号。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周五下跌，并稍微跌破30%水平。若随机指标接下来还是处于30%水平以下的话，那表示综指短期走势再次进入偏弱的格局。

总的来说，综指再次试探上升趋势线，若接下来跌破了L1线，那综指涨势将会受到中断，但是却不表示综指将立即转为跌势。除非综指跌破L1线后再形成较低峰（Lower-highs）的特征，届时综指才有形成跌势的讯号。

祝你好运