ZLBT Chats

Saturday, July 31, 2010

IMAGES SELECT >>> FCPO Weekly and FKLI Daily

Please click on images to ENLARGE

FCPO Recommendation
Preferably when FLURRY SELL OCCUR >>> BUY

FKLI Recommendation
SELL Into Strength / Rally
Preferably when FLURRY BUY occur >>> SELL


WALL STREET >>> A Solid July For The Dow

Please click on images to ENLARGE

DJIA Finish Up Over 7% For Month of July
It was a rough start for the major market indexes today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down triple digits within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell.
Fueling the bearish fire were the latest gross domestic product (GDP) estimates from the Commerce Department, which indicated slower-than-anticipated economic growth for the second quarter. Adding insult to injury, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tumbled to an eight-month low in July, reflecting escalating concerns about the pace of the economic recovery. Meanwhile, the lone bright spot of the day came courtesy of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago's business barometer, which unexpectedly rose in July – pointing to robust manufacturing activity in the Midwest. In fact, the upbeat data helped the bulls stage a valiant afternoon recovery, with stocks negating most – if not all – of their losses by the close.
Wall Street Cheer A Benign July
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,465.94) pared most of its deficit by the close, ending with a modest loss of 1.2 points, or 0.01%.
Fourteen of the Dow's 30 blue chips settled in the red, with Intel Corp. and Merck leading the laggards, while Boeing and Home Depot paced the 16 advancing equities.
For the week, the DJIA added 0.4%, but fell shy of toppling its 20-week moving average. For the month, the blue-chip barometer skyrocketed 7.1% - its heftiest monthly gain in a year – to finish north of its 10-month trendline for the first time since April.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,101.60) also clawed back from its session lows, eking out a gain of less than a point, or 0.01%. For the week, the SPX gave back 0.1%, but managed to finish the month 6.9% ahead – its best monthly rally since July 2009. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,254.70) followed suit, erasing its early deficit to end 3 points, or 0.1%, higher.
For the week, the tech-rich index surrendered 0.7%, but still added 6.9% in July. What's more, both the SPX and COMP also clawed their way back atop their respective 10-month trendlines.


Thursday, July 29, 2010

BURSA MALAYSIA >>> FKLI Market Overviews

FKLI : It's been a long time coming
Note the last 3 candles of the above Spot Month chart >>> small real bodies denote fading buying frenzy as compared to last week's action.
We see this pattern during an uptrend marked with a final bullish surge that eventually weakens. This weakening is illustrated by a long black candlestick that is unable to close the gap into the body of the first day. These events warn us about a short-term reversal.
The reversal candle confirmation may be delayed due to month end rollover. Red candle expected soon hopefully today.
And if and when it does appear 1350.0 Support 1st target followed by last week Hanging Man's head at 1347.5
We'll take it from there
Only Spot month contract made green >>> the rest of forward months and indication or rollovers rathe than continuous buying or LONG Comittments.
Should the sharks prevent a green rollover with a red >>> the LONGs will be sweating.
FKLI Recommendation
Go SHORT at broken Support


DJIA >>> Traffic Lights Ahead; Brakes Applied

Dow Slip on Durable Goods Data, Downbeat Beige Book
Bulls stomped on the brakes today as a wave of disappointing data washed over Wall Street. The Commerce Department kicked things off by reporting that U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% in June, defying expectations for a 1% increase during the month. Unfortunately, the afternoon release of the Fed's Beige Book struck a similarly troublesome note.

In keeping with the cautious tone of comments made by Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Senate last week, most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported stagnant or slowing economic progress. Meanwhile, on the earnings front, a second-quarter revenue miss from aerospace giant Boeing (BA) only served to underscore the day's gloomy mood. And just like that, the Dow's four-day winning streak was snapped.
"We saw some late-day selling after the Beige Book confirmed that the economy isn't bouncing back as much as we'd like," noted a senior analyst. "Nonetheless, most of the corporate earnings we're seeing continue to be much better than expected, even if the economic data is mixed."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,497.88) settled on a modest loss of 39.8 points, or 0.4%, as 21 of its 30 components backpedaled. Boeing paced the decliners in the wake of its revenue miss, but Pfizer (PFE) wasn't far behind. Among the nine advancing blue chips, Verizon Communications (VZ) racked up the day's biggest gain. Despite the day's downbeat finish, the Dow notched a third straight daily finish above its 80-day moving average, which neatly contained the blue-chip barometer's intraday low.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,106.13) clung to its perch above 1,100, sacrificing just 7.7 points, or 0.7%, by the close. The index's 200-day moving average continues to be a point of concern, with this trendline capping the SPX's intraday progress. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,264.56) fared the worst, shedding 23.7 points, or 1%. Nevertheless, the COMP collected its fourth consecutive daily close above its 200-day moving average.

Crude Oil Futures
Oil futures fell in sympathy with stocks today, as traders passed over riskier assets in favor of safer investing havens. The day's lackluster durable goods data was a point of concern, as was the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) confession of an unexpected weekly climb in crude inventories. As traders fretted over the prospects of a weaker economic recovery, crude for September delivery slipped 51 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $76.99 per barrel.

GOLD Futures

On the other hand, gold futures eked out a modest gain. Physical demand remains relatively muted, but the malleable metal clawed its way into the black on the backs of bargain hunters. Month-to-date, the most active December contract has shed nearly 7% of its value, which effectively tempted a few thrifty traders. Gold for December delivery wrapped up the day 60 cents higher at $1,162.40 per ounce.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010


Does this look strange & unfamiliar to anyone around here?
IT HAPPENS TO MANY OF US What about you?

FBM KLCI Futures >>> Market Overviews

FBM KLCI Futures Close Higher
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher Tuesday supported by late buying, dealers said.
At close, spot month July 2010 inched up 0.5 of a point to 1,355.5 and August 2010 added two points to 1,356.5.September 2010 and December 2010 increased two points each to settle at 1,356.5 and 1,356.0 respectively.
Volume increased to 19,561 lots from 10,723 lots Monday and open interests rose to 27,253 contracts from 22,527 contracts previously.On the cash market, the benchmark FBM KLCI index ended 0.41 of a point higher at 1,352.23.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures >>> Market Overviews

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Weather; Crop Uncertainty
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange erased losses Tuesday on intraday short-covering amid weather uncertainties for the palm crop and tight nearby supplies, trade participants said.
The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR12 higher at MYR2,485 a metric ton after tumbling close to a week's low at MYR2,434/ton.

Preliminary data from an industry body Thursday showed output for the first 25 days of July had risen only 1.3% from the same period last month, which may lead to a drawdown in palm inventory levels as demand is likely to outpace supply.
Some among trade participants said July production could probably decline from last month's level at 1.39 million tons, as erratic weather conditions probably lowered yields at key palm growing regions including Sabah, even as palm trees go into high production season.

"July's palm production has been below expectations. The single-digit gain (during the higher production cycle) is a far cry from the previous year's performance," said the trading head at a Malaysia-based major plantation company.

Traders said any decline in palm production could boost prices to MYR2,500-MYR2,600/ton in the next few trading sessions. For the most part of the day prices remained in negative territory as the ringgit gained traction.

The dollar fell to MYR3.1900 versus Monday's level of MYR3.1950. A stronger ringgit make CPO more expensive as a feedstock, affecting palm refining margins.
In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December was traded at $795/ton free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,560/ton.
CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures weren't traded during Asian hours.

Rupiah-denominated October CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 1.5% lower at IDR6,710 a kilogram at 0932 GMT.
Open interest on the BMD was 68,489 lots, versus 68,489 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 17,747 lots of CPO were traded versus 18,236 lots Monday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average >>> The Broadening Wedge

Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow recovered from last week's scare and is advancing towards the upper border of the broadening wedge formation. Breakout would indicate reversal of the primary down-trend, before it really began.

Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) indicates short-term buying pressure. Reversal below the lower border, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of 9000*.

ZLBT Currency Select >>> The EURO and GBP

Please click on image to ENLARGE
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2794 but closed higher at 1.2914. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a triangle formation after failed to consistently move above 1.3000 and found support around 1.2735 indicating consolidation. Breakout above the triangle could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.3000 before targeting 1.3120. On the other hand, breakdown below the triangle could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2735 region. Overall The euro is still in bullish phase.

The GBPUSD continue its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.5448 and closed at 1.5420. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5470 area targeting 1.5573 (February 23 high) before testing 1.5685 region (February 18 high). Immediate support at 1.5400 – 1.5380. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone in nearest term testing 1.5280/50 support area.

Monday, July 26, 2010

FKLI >>> Bullishly Overbought

Please click on image to ENLARGE
Can attempt INTRADAY SHORT for quick gains
But only during a FLURRY RALLY

Saturday, July 24, 2010

WEEK AHEAD >>> Global Markets Seeking More Cheers

Please click on images to ENLARGEHAPPY WEEKEND FOLKS

Friday, July 23, 2010


Hope these charts can make your day :DGOODLUCK2ALL

Thursday, July 22, 2010

HANGING MAN Candlestick Spotted In FKLI Spot 21/07/10


The Bearish Hanging Man Pattern is a single candlestick and a top reversal pattern. It is very similar to the Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern. In case of the Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern, the opening and closing prices are identical whereas the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern has a small real body.

Recognition Criteria:
1. We see it at a market top or during an uptrend.
2. It is characterized by its small real body at the upper end of the trading range and it is located above the trend. The color of the body is unimportant.
3. It has a lower shadow, which is at least twice the height of the real body.
4. There is either no upper shadow or a very short upper shadow.

The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern. It signals a market top or a resistance level. Since it is seen after an advance, a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow indicates that the sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of this selling pressure after a rally is a serious warning signal.

Important Factors:
Ideally; the lower shadow of the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern must be two or three times the height of the real body. However, a long lower shadow may not have to be twice the height of the real body in the real life conditions in order to signal a reversal. The pattern is more perfect if the lower shadow is longer.

The Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern is a more bearish signal than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern and it is also more reliable than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern.

If a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern is characterized by a black real body, it shows that the close was not able to get back to the opening price level, which has potentially bearish implications.

We need a confirmation of the reversal on the next day for a more definite proof about the reversal of the uptrend. This confirmation may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the next trading day.
Can try an initial position FKLI SHORT
Wait with patience for bigger positions
Hanging Man needs confirmation & it may not come instantly
Set a reasonable stoploss for SHORT positions

Random Charts >>> DJIA FBMKLCI FKLI and FCPO

Uncertain Bernanke Bust The Dow
The Dow suffered a triple-digit selloff on Wednesday as new comments from Fed chief Ben Bernanke reminding Wall Street of the “unusually uncertain” nature of the economic recovery spooked the markets and drowned out a cluster of bullish earnings reports.

Stocks stayed close to the breakeven line through the first half of the session, before embarking on a dramatic decline in afternoon trading. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can take most of the credit for the market's nosedive; in Senate testimony today, he noted that the economic outlook is "unusually uncertain," and central bankers are "prepared to take further policy actions as needed" to support a recovery. "Financial conditions ... have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months," admitted Bernanke. Thanks to the Fed head's sober forecast, traders shrugged off upbeat earnings from the likes of Apple and Morgan Stanley (MS), and fled the equities market in favor of the relative safety of bonds and the U.S. dollar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,120.53) pared the worst of its intraday decline by the close, but still swallowed a sizable deficit of 109 points, or 1.1%. Only four Dow members closed higher, with Coca-Cola leading the way on the heels of its quarterly report. Meanwhile, financial firms Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase paced the 26 decliners. Despite today's drop, the Dow is still perched just a hair's breadth above its 10-week moving average, which has been toppled only once on a weekly closing basis since April.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,069.59) followed suit by shedding nearly 14 points, or 1.3%. The SPX's intraday slump was contained by its 20-day moving average, which has provided tenuous support since July 9.

Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,187.33) gave up 35 points, or 1.6%, to settle back below the 2,200 level. The COMP's slide was contained by the 2,185 region, home to its 20-day trendline.

FKLI Recommendation
The appearance of the Hanging Man on 21/07 has U-turned the FKLI sentiments.

FCPO Recommendation
Preferably during a FLURRY SELL-OFF

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

FBM KLCI Futures >>> Market Overview

FBM KLCI Futures Firmer At Close
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed firmer on Wednesday in line with the uptrend on the cash market, dealers said.

The July 2010 and August 2010 contracts both added 7.5 points to 1,344.5 and 1,344.5 respectively. September 2010 increased 6.0 points to 1,343.0 while December 2010 went up 6.5 of a point to 1,343.5.

Volume was at 5,438 lots, higher than yesterday's 5,319 lots, while open interest increased to 21,046 contracts from 20,617 contracts previously.
On the cash market, the benchmark KLCI index ended 3.35 points higher at 1,341.02.

FKLI Recommendation

Laporan Pasaran Hiaga Hadapan Minyak Sawit Mentah

Pasaran niaga hadapan minyak sawit mentah ditutup tinggi hari ini mendapat rangsangan daripada kekukuhan harga minyak soya dan minyak mentah. Belian menampung kekurangan oleh peniaga juga membantu meningkatkan sentimen pasaran. Minyak mentah berada pada hampir paras tertinggi dalam tempoh tiga minggu pada US$75 setong yang membawa kepada sentimen positif bagi minyak sawit mentah yang kelihatan sebagai pilihan lebih baik bagi sumber biodiesel.
Di pasaran niaga hadapan, Ogos naik RM19 kepada RM2,522 setonne, Sept meningkat RM32 kepada RM2,483, Oktober menambah RM33 kepada RM2,457 manakalaNovember menokok RM32 kepada RM2,452 setonne.
Jumlah dagangan berkurangan kepada 16,473 lot, daripada 17,134 lot semalam manakala kepentingan terbuka naik kepada 68,667 kontrak daripada 67,704 kontrak sebelumnya. Di pasaran fizikal, Selatan Julai meningkat RM20 untuk ditutup kepadaRM2,530 setonne.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Composite Index 21/07/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 07月 21日

Composite Index 20/07/2010
After rebounding from the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI gained another 4.32 points or 0.3% on Tuesday, to close at 1337.67 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1325 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1350.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 16%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support, and the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as a dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.7%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is now improving. Generally, if volume should stay firmly above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is expected to improve.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebound and remains above 70%, thus the short term bullish signal remains intact. Generally, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to stay positive until the Stochastic should break below 70%.

In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive as it is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded, thus the KLCI is still consolidating.

综合指数 2010年 07月 20日
富时综合指数自周一在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)继续回弹,综指按日上扬4.32点或0.3%,以1337.67点闭市。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1325点,阻力水平则是1350点的费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Middle Band)收窄16%,这显示综指处于调整巩固的格局中,目前布林中频带是综指一道重要的动态支持线,因为只要综指能在此线上获得扶持,综指的后市将能继续转强。





Monday, July 19, 2010

Crude Palm Oil Rally Not Sustainable;
Short term Doubts
CPO futures market surged to a six-week high last week, lifted by a mad rush to cover short (sell) positions. The third-month forward benchmark October 2010 futures contract touched a high of RM2,461 a tonne before settling last Friday at RM2,449, up a whopping RM149 or 6.48 per cent over the week. The rush to cover shorts was evidenced by the notable contraction of 3,096 contracts or 4.27 per cent in the total open interest position to 69,473 open contracts, from the previous week's 72,569 open contracts.

There was a fear factor in the rush to cover shorts in a big way - fear that the slew of good and encouraging news would continue to see print and in newswire reports. And concern that world commodity markets, especially the soyabean oil futures market, would extend the length of their past fortnight's strong winning streak. The bellwether US soyabean oil futures market extended its run-up the price chart last week, tacking on 81 points or 2.46 per cent to settle last Friday at 38.31 US cents a pound. Industry estimates of a 2 per cent drop in the September through November US soyabean harvest fuelled soyabean oil's surge to a 14-week high.

The real catalyst for last week's short-covering binge, though, was the latest export estimates. Societe Generale de Surveillance's and Intertek Agri Services' July 1-15 export estimates were figured at a combined average of some 688,000 tons, up a hefty 84,000 tonnes or 13.85 per cent from that for first half June. It was not so much that exports have started picking up, but the realisation that Muslim countries in the Middle East and Pakistan have started buying palm oil in earnest to stock up on cooking oil ahead of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri (end-of Ramadan festive season) that really ignited last week's rally. Hari Raya Aidilfitri, or Eid al-Fitr, is likely fall on September 10.

Conclusion: A rally ramped up by short-covering, no matter how strong, should not inspire confidence as the start to a real bull phase. What is needed is fresh and renewed buying interest, something not apparent - yet. Until that happens playing this market by ear may be the best - and probably only - option.

# THE BAR AND VOLUME CHART: This is the daily high, low and settlement prices of the most actively traded basis month of the crude palm oil futures contract. Basically, rising prices accompanied by rising volumes would indicate a bull market.
# THE MOMENTUM INDEX: This line plots the short/medium-term direction of the market and may be interpreted as follows:
(a) The market is in an upward direction when the line closes above the neutral straight line and is in a downward direction when the reverse is the case.
(b) A loss in the momentum of the line (divergence) when prices are still heading up or down normally indicates that the market could expect a technical correction or a reversal in the near future.

# THE RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX: This indicator is most useful when plotted in conjunction with a daily bar chart and may be interpreted as follows:
(a) Overbought and oversold positions are indicated when the index goes above or below the upper and lower dotted lines.
(b) Support and resistance often show up clearly before becoming apparent on the bar chart.
(c) Divergence between the index and price action on the chart is a very strong indication that a market turning point is imminent.

FCPO Recommendations