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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Composite Index 21/07/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 07月 21日

Composite Index 20/07/2010
After rebounding from the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI gained another 4.32 points or 0.3% on Tuesday, to close at 1337.67 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1325 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1350.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 16%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support, and the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as a dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.7%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is now improving. Generally, if volume should stay firmly above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is expected to improve.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebound and remains above 70%, thus the short term bullish signal remains intact. Generally, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to stay positive until the Stochastic should break below 70%.

In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive as it is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded, thus the KLCI is still consolidating.



综合指数 2010年 07月 20日
富时综合指数自周一在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)继续回弹,综指按日上扬4.32点或0.3%,以1337.67点闭市。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1325点,阻力水平则是1350点的费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Middle Band)收窄16%,这显示综指处于调整巩固的格局中,目前布林中频带是综指一道重要的动态支持线,因为只要综指能在此线上获得扶持,综指的后市将能继续转强。

除了布林中频带外,14、21、31天的加权移动平均线(EMA)亦是综指重要的动态支持线,通常这是分析师判断综指的后市是向上或向下的一个重要指标。理论上,只要综指继续处于EMA以上,综指的后市将继续看俏,直到综指跌破此EMA为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量增加32.7%,并且创下3个月的新高水平,这也使到成交量成功的保持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这显示市场交投活跃。此高于40天平均值的成交量若能维持下去,那市场的承接力量将增加,这将有助于综指继续转强。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)回弹,这使到随机指标成功的保持在70%以上,以技术而言,综指的短期走势将继续趋强,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,布林频带收窄表示综指目前正在巩固中,这也显示综指正在酝酿着一个新走势。一般上,只要综指接下来能继续保持在布林中频带及14、21、31天EMA以上,那当布林频带开始明显打开时,综指的后市将有望更上一层楼,反之亦然。

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