ZLBT Chats

Thursday, September 22, 2011

WALL STREET : Bears Re-emerge To Maul Bulls

Stocks Sink as Fed's Operation Twist Fuels Afternoon Sell-Off
After hemming and hawing just south of breakeven for most of the day, U.S. stocks took a decisive turn for the worse in the wake of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) highly anticipated policy statement. At 2:15 p.m. Eastern, a divided Fed unveiled "Operation Twist" -- a plan to shift its bond portfolio by selling $400 billion in shorter-term Treasury debt and buying longer-term Treasuries. In addition, the central bank -- unsurprisingly -- opted to stand pat on interest rates, and noted "significant downside risks to the economic outlook." The announcement was ill-received on Wall Street, to say the least, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ending at a session low, and the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 37.32) -- otherwise known as the market's "fear barometer" -- tacking on more than 13% by the close.
After an early foray into the black, it was all downhill for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,124.84), which gave up 283.8 points, or 2.5%, by the time the bell mercifully rang. In fact, only Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) managed a win, adding 6.7% on reports that CEO Leo Apotheker might hit the bricks. On the flip side, Bank of America (BAC) led the 29 laggards with a 7.5% loss, thanks to a ratings downgrade at Moody's Investors Services.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,166.76) fared the worst of the three, surrendering 35.3 points, or 2.9%, to end beneath the 1,200 level for the first time in a week. Finally, despite solid tech-sector earnings, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,538.19) wasn't immune to the Street's wrath, swallowing a loss of 52.1 points, or 2%, by the close.


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Technical Charts / Commentaries : DJIA, FBMKLCI, FKLI

 After soaring as high as 11,550.22 in intraday trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,408.66) pared its lead to just 7.7 points, or about 0.1%, by the close. Sixteen of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended in the black, led by Home Depot's (HD) 1.3% gain, while Alcoa (AA) paced the 13 decliners with a loss of 2.9%. The shares of 3M (MMM), meanwhile, split the difference by finishing flat.
 Overall, the KLCI is still in the current decline in the KLCI to continue as long as 14, 21, 31 days EMA resistance line Difficult dynamic, then the KLCI's technical outlook will remain weak for. In addition, if the next KLCI continued support in 1400, then decline in the KLCI will help to avoid further deterioration, but then if the KLCI into the yaw of the consolidation pattern, it will dilute the market sell-off , when the KLCI to re-brewing movement. First, however, hinges on whether the rise in the KLCI breaking 14, 21, 31 days EMA of the dynamic resistance.


Monday, September 19, 2011

BSKL : All Round Weakness Prevails

Immediate resistance for the FBM KLCI on an assumed technical rebound this week would be at 1,464, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the sell-off from the 1,597.08 record high of 11 July to the recent extreme low of 1,423.47 on 9 August, with next upside hurdles at 1,490 and 1,510, the respective 38.2%FR and 50%FR levels. 

A more formidable hurdle would be the 200-day moving average, currently at 1,526. On the flipside, the index must hold above the crucial pivot low support at 1,423.47, reinforced by 1,420, the 50%FR of up-trend from the 1,243 low of 27/5/10 to the 1,597.08 record high, to prevent deeper correction to 1,378, the 61.8%FR, with next significant retracement support at 1,327, representing the 76.4%FR.

The blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI)
slumped 38.19 points, or 2.6% last week to settle at 1,430.93, with Sime Darby (-79sen), Tenaga (-28sen), CIMB (-18sen) and IOI Corp (-16sen) contributing to slightly more than half of the index’s loss. Average daily traded volume and value recovered mildly to 720.8mn shares and RM1.22bn respectively, compared with the 710mn shares and RM1.25bn average the previous week.

An oversold rebound imminent 
Spot month September KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad slid 31.5 points, or 2.16% for the week to 1,427.5, decreasing its discount to the cash index to 3.43 points, compared with the 10.1-point discount the previous Friday. Short-covering increased to lift the futures market as the index drew closer to the pivot low of 1,423.


Friday, September 16, 2011

WALL STREET >>> DJIA Topples 11,400 with 4th winning streak.

Bulls Rally For 4th Victory
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,433.18) spent most of the session blazing a steady path higher, tacking on 186.5 points, or 1.7%, by the close. In fact, all 30 of the Dow's blue chips finished in the black, led by Bank of America's (BAC) 4% advance.

Dow Weekly Chart On The Move 
From this week Monday to Thursday perspective, the Dow is up an impressive 44.05 points or 4.01%. 
Recovery momentum is building slowly but surely. 


Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Random Charts >>> DJIA, FKLI , FBM KLCI


Sunday, September 11, 2011

FBMKLCI Technical Analysis 每周技术分析2010年9月09日

每周技术分析 2010年9月09日技术分析
综指上周成功回弹至布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,惟布林频带(Bollinger Band)上周并未打开,所以虽然综指下跌的趋势停止,不过综指仍然未算是出现上扬的趋势,直到布林频带明显的打开为止。
胜图强弱指标(WinChart RSI)保持在50%以下,不过却高于30%,这显示综指的中期走势摆脱下跌格局,惟中期走势并未转强,仍然低于中和的状况。

Weekly Market Analysis FBMKLCI 09/09/2011
 For the week ended on the 9th of September, 2011, the KLCI fell a total of 4.97 points or 0.34% with its weekly high of 1480.33 point and the weekly low of 1453.26 points. Total market volume was 3,549,881,800 shares, gained 173.17%.

Main Chart:
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI volatility began decreased last week, as the KLCI moved in a sideways manner. As indicated by A, the KLCI attempted to break the 1480 resistance, but failed. Meanwhile, the KLCI remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, thus the downtrend remains intact, with a negative technical outlook. Support for the KLCI is at 1423.

Bollinger Bands:
As the KLCI moved sideways, and volatility decreases, the Bollinger Bands contracted, and this suggests that the direction for the KLCI is unclear as the KLCI is consolidating.

As indicated by B, total market volume remains below the 40-day volume moving average, as investors are reluctant to take up new position. Meanwhile, the lower volume implies that investors are not feeling confident about the local market.

Last week, the MACD histogram ticked higher, as the short term movement of the KLCI improved slightly. However, the MACD line remains below the zero level, and this suggests that the mid to long term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

WinChart RSI:The WinChart RSI, stayed between 30% ~ 50% level, and this is a neutral region, but with some bearish biased suggestion. If the WinChart RSI should fall below 30% again, it would be re-entering the mid term bearish territory.

As the KLCI moved sideways last week, the Stochastic also moving higher, but not high enough to break above 70%. As indicated by C, the Stochastic could only climb to 50% level, thus the short term movement signal of the KLCI is at neutral now.

In Conclusion:
Despite the slight improvement of the short term movement, the KLCI downtrend remains intact, and the technical outlook for the KLCI is also weak, as the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.


Saturday, September 10, 2011

DJIA Daily / Weekly Charts Commentaries and Analysis

 DJIA Daily Technical Analysis 10 Sept 2011
 The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday as increased concern over the viability of the global economy is weighing on the market. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 10,932 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 10,604 later this fall. If the Dow renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 11,740 is the next upside target. 
First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 11,740. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 12,008. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 10,932. 
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10,801.
DJIA Weekly expected to further retrace i-line with the corrective Wave 2 and then rebound with a Wave 3 formation. This may take a few weekly candles.


Friday, September 9, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 09月 08日 / FBMKLCI 08/09/2011

综合指数 2011年 0908

富时大马综合指数(综指)周四继续的反弹,按日上扬5.22点或0.36%。如图中箭头A所示,综指即将要试探142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态阻力线及1480点的阻力水平。综指支持水平落在1423点的费氏线。





Wednesday, September 7, 2011

DJIA Suffers Third Straight Triple-Digit Drop

Stocks Plummet; Fear Index VIX Jumps 9%
U.S. stocks plummeted at the opening bell today, as debt drama from across the pond fed the bears. Protests and pending austerity measures in Italy, as well as the Swiss central bank's newly capped currency exchange rate, were among the headlines weighing on Wall Street, which was still reeling from Friday's lackluster payrolls report. However, while an unexpected improvement in the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services index helped stocks pare their losses by the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) still dropped triple digits for the third straight session. Furthermore, a widespread flight to safety helped gold futures tag a new record high north of $1,900 an ounce, and sent the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 37.00) -- also known as the market's "fear gauge" -- more than 9% higher by the bell.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,139.30) fell as low as 10,932.53 before trimming its deficit to about 101 points, or 0.9%. Only three of the Dow's 30 components finished higher, with Pfizer's (PFE) 1% gain pacing the elite. Meanwhile, financial concerns Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) once again led the laggards, giving up 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,165.24) also pared its losses as the session progressed, but still ended 8.7 points, or 0.7%, south of breakeven. Likewise, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,473.83) tagged an intraday nadir of 2,414.31, but trimmed its deficit to 6.5 points, or 0.3%, by the close.


Tuesday, September 6, 2011

FKLI Remains Unexciting; Weakness Prevails