FBMKLCI Technical Analysis 每周技术分析2010年9月09日

每每周技术分析 周2010年9月09日技术分析

富时综合指数上周以1469.77点开市，全周最高水平为1480.33点，最低则是1453.26点，综指上周以1469.12点挂收，按周微跌4.97点或0.34%，全周总成交量为35亿4988万1800股。

 

主要指标－图形

如图中箭头A所示，综指上周一度上探1480点的阻力水平，不过综指始终未能上扬突破此阻力，这表示1480接下来继续成为综指的阻力水平，支持水平则保持在1464.44点的费氏线。

 

布林频带

综指上周成功回弹至布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，惟布林频带（Bollinger Band）上周并未打开，所以虽然综指下跌的趋势停止，不过综指仍然未算是出现上扬的趋势，直到布林频带明显的打开为止。

 

技术指标

成交量

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量一直都低于40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示综马股市场的继续淡静，这是综指跌势中或淡静格局的典型状态，这反映了投资者选择离场观望。

 

平均乖离

平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周开始上扬，使到振荡指标处于正值区域，所以综指的短期走势出现技术回弹，直到振荡指标形成一个圆顶为止。

 

胜图强弱指标

胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）保持在50%以下，不过却高于30%，这显示综指的中期走势摆脱下跌格局，惟中期走势并未转强，仍然低于中和的状况。

 

随机指标

随机指标（Stochastic）上周上扬突破50%，不过并未进入70%以上的水平，这显示综指的短期走势有所改善，不过仍然未形成上扬的格局。

 

总结

综指跟随国际走势回弹，不过综指仍然受到1480点的阻力，再加上1480点与14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）重叠，这使到阻力倍增，所以综指上扬的趋势受阻。以技术而言，若综指在EMA遇阻后下滑，那综指仍然持续的形成较低峰（Lower-Highs）的典型跌势形状，所以综指接下来的后市展望仍然不乐观。

Weekly Market Analysis FBMKLCI 09/09/2011

 For the week ended on the 9^th of September, 2011, the KLCI fell a total of 4.97 points or 0.34% with its weekly high of 1480.33 point and the weekly low of 1453.26 points. Total market volume was 3,549,881,800 shares, gained 173.17%.

Main Chart:

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI volatility began decreased last week, as the KLCI moved in a sideways manner. As indicated by A, the KLCI attempted to break the 1480 resistance, but failed. Meanwhile, the KLCI remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, thus the downtrend remains intact, with a negative technical outlook. Support for the KLCI is at 1423.

Bollinger Bands:

As the KLCI moved sideways, and volatility decreases, the Bollinger Bands contracted, and this suggests that the direction for the KLCI is unclear as the KLCI is consolidating.

Volume:

As indicated by B, total market volume remains below the 40-day volume moving average, as investors are reluctant to take up new position. Meanwhile, the lower volume implies that investors are not feeling confident about the local market.

MACD:

Last week, the MACD histogram ticked higher, as the short term movement of the KLCI improved slightly. However, the MACD line remains below the zero level, and this suggests that the mid to long term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

WinChart RSI:The WinChart RSI, stayed between 30% ~ 50% level, and this is a neutral region, but with some bearish biased suggestion. If the WinChart RSI should fall below 30% again, it would be re-entering the mid term bearish territory.

Stochastic:

As the KLCI moved sideways last week, the Stochastic also moving higher, but not high enough to break above 70%. As indicated by C, the Stochastic could only climb to 50% level, thus the short term movement signal of the KLCI is at neutral now.

In Conclusion:

Despite the slight improvement of the short term movement, the KLCI downtrend remains intact, and the technical outlook for the KLCI is also weak, as the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.

HAPPY TRADING