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Friday, November 9, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBM KLCI 2012-11-08 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-11-08

FBM KLCI 2012-11-08
Due to the over-night sharp losses of the US markets, plus the Asian markets were also falling, and the KLCI was not exempted. The KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1637.50 points, but at late trading, the KLCI started to rebound, closing at 1641.07 points or a loss of 4.46 points, forming a long lower-shadow candlestick. Generally, this implies that the KLCI is likely to have some rebound.
 
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 17.16%, with volume slightly below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, when the market overall is falling, lower volume is normal as investors are being cautious while reluctantly taking up new positions.
 
As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays below 30%, thus suggesting that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still weak. If the Stochastic should break above 30%, it would be a signals suggesting a short-term technical rebound for the KLCI.
 
In conclusion, after falling for 5 consecutive days, the KLCI is showing a sign of a possible rebound. Also, many blue chips counters are trading at their short-term over-sold condition, and this could attract some bargain buying interests, thus it may increase the chance of some rebound in the KLCI.
 

富时大马综合指数 2012-11-08
由于隔夜美国股市猛挫,再加上亚太区域股市满盘皆输,综指也难豁免,盘中一度下跌至1637.50点的最低点,惟在最后交易时段回弹,才收复了大部分的失地,综指最后以1641.07点挂收,按日下跌了4.46点。如图中箭头A所示,综指反弹后留下来一条偏长的下影线(Lower-Shadow),这在阴阳烛图分析里通常暗示着有回弹的迹象。
 
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量减少了17.16%,这使到成交量稍微处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)的水平以下。一般来说,当综指(或市场整体上)下跌时,成交量减少是很正常的,这是因为投资者处于谨慎,暂时在场外观望所致。
 
如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续处于30%水平以下,这表示综指短期走势还是处于偏弱的格局。接下来若随机指标能上扬突破30% 水平的话,那便是综指短期出现技术反弹的讯号。
 
总的来说,综指连续下跌了整整5日,如今已经呈现了一条偏长的下影线,再加上许多蓝筹股项都出现了短期超卖(Over-sold)的现象,特别是最近下跌最严重的电讯股,这可能会引来一些趁低买入的购兴,同时有助于增加综指出现技术反弹的可能。
 
祝你好运

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