TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 19日 / Composite Index 19/05/2009

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 uptrend line on Tuesday, after successfully rebounded from the 1000 level. With the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Middle Band is now the immediate support for the KLCI together with the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI suggesting more upside volatility.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 3.4%, while remains above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively traded. If volume should continue to increase, it would help to maintain the current positive market sentiment.
As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded without breaking below 30% level. If the Stochastic should continue to rebound, and break above the 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a resume of the short term bullish movement.

Generally, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand after its contraction, it is a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement. In order for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, the KLCI must stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the Bollinger Bands Width expanding, together with substantial increased of volume.

综合指数 2009年 5月 19日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数在1000点获得扶持后，周二继续上扬并突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），重返T1及T2的上升趋势轨道（Uptrend Channel）。由于综指再次回到布林中频带以上，布林中频带及T2上升趋势线接下来成为综指的动态支持水平，另外14、21、31天加权移动平均线也是综指上扬趋势的动态支持水平，阻力水平则是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。

虽然综指回到布林中频带以上，但布林频带还在收窄，这表示综指目前还未摆脱横摆巩固的僵局，无论如何若布林频带接下来打开的话，综指只要继续处于布林中频带以上那综指就有望恢复上扬的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量稍微增加3.4%，所以继续保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，所以市场整体上还是相当活跃的，若成交量能够继续增加的话，这将有助于综指维持目前上扬格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）并未跌破30%水平，且回弹突破50%水平，这表示综指短期走势避开形成转弱的格局。接下来若随机指标能够继续上升并突破70%水平的话，那将是综指短期恢复上扬的讯号，这意味着综指后市有望看高一线。

布林频带目前收的非常窄小，每当布林频带收窄后重新打开时，那都表示综指摆脱巩固格出现一个新的走势。若综指要恢复之前上扬的格局，就要符合三个重要的条件，那就是继续处于布林中频带以上、布林频带明显的打开及成交量明显的增加。换句话说，若接下来出现这三个条件的话，综指将有望更上一层楼。