TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 29日 /Composite Index 29/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 29日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger MidBand）及T2上升趋势线反弹，所以T2线及布林中频带依然是综指的动态支持水平，综指阻力水平则继续是1053点胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带周五收窄10%，确认综指进入调整巩固格局，只要布林频带继续收窄的话，综指将倾向于横摆巩固或技术调整的风险。如图所示，阴阳烛出现长的上影线及下影线，这表示市场正面对买方及卖方势均力敌的拉锯战。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量在周五增加64.3%，使到成交量重返40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。虽然成交量有增加，但成交量接下来必须维持在40天的成交量平均值以上，那才有助于综指维持上扬额格局，所以成交量能否维持在40天的平均值以上是综指恢复上升趋势的重要关键。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标在70%水平反弹，并未跌破70%水平，这表示综指短期还未确认转弱的讯号。换句话说，只要随机指标能够保持在70%水平以上，综指短期是有望恢复上扬的格局。

总的来说，由于T2趋势线与布林中频带重叠，所以扶持力量倍增，这使到综指在布林频带反弹，综指暂时幸免转弱。无论如何，综指若要再度形成上扬格局的话，接下来在布林频带重新打开时，综指须处于布林中频带以上，再配合成交量成功的维持在40天的平均值或以上的水平。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI was supported by the T2 line as well as the Bollinger Middle Band again, suggesting that the KLCI immediate outlook has not turned bearish. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 10%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the KLCI is likely to move sideways or some risk of a technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 64.3%, bring the volume back above the 40-day VMA level. However, in order for the KLCI to regain its strength, volume has to remain above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded from 70% level, and therefore, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned weak. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, there is a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend.

The rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band and T2 is important for they temporary keep the KLCI from turning weaker. However, in order for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, the we should have the following criteria, which are the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as an increased of volume above the 40-day VMA level.