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Monday, May 18, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 18日 / Composite Index 18/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 18日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数周一再度下滑,惟精确的在1000点水平反弹,按日微跌2.2点,所以1000点继续的成为综指的支持水平,综指另一个支持水平则是14、21、31天的加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average)。

布林频带周一进一步的收窄(-37%),这表示综指目前还未摆脱巩固的僵局,所以虽然综指已经跌破了布林中频带,综指还不至于确认跌势,无论如何,布林中频带将成为综指的第一个阻力动态水平,综指的另一道阻力水平则是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量继续再度减退17.9%,但依然维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。由于综指目前正在调整巩固,成交量萎缩是很正常的,无论如何,只要成交量能够继续保持在40天的成交量平均值以上的话,那市场还是有足够的成交量来吸纳套利的卖压,这将能维持马股的目前的良好投资气氛。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续下滑,这表示综指短期还是有转弱的倾向,这是因为综指继续横摆所致。无论如何,随机指标依然没有跌破30%的水平,所以综指短期还未进入弱势,只不过是处于偏弱的巩固格局而已。
总的来说,综指成功的在1000点重要心理水平获得扶持而稍微回弹,若综指能够继续反弹并且突破布林中频带的话,那综指有望结束巩固格局,重新回到T1及T2的上升轨道,恢复上扬的格局,不过这必须要获得布林频带重新打开及成交量明显增加来确认此上扬的讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI had an intra-day low touching 1000 points, and the KLCI rebounded from 1000 points, closing 2.2 points lower on Monday. Therefore, this shows that the 1000 level is still the psychological support level, while the other support is at the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 37%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Since the KLCI is below the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Middle Band will be the immediate resistance, while the next resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 17.9%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. The lower volume on Monday is normal as the KLCI is still consolidating. With volume above the 40-day VMA level, it suggests that the overall market is still actively participated, thus the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.
As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. However, the Stochastic has not broken below 30% level, therefore, the short term movement for the KLCI has not entered short term bearish.

The support at 1000 level is a positive note to the KLCI. If the KLCI should continue to rebound, and break above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook would return to positive biased, and there is a chance for the KLCI to resume its T1 and T2 uptrend channel. Of course, the best confirmation would be the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width as well as a substantial increased of volume.

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