TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 20/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 20日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/05/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 19.14 points or 1.9% higher on Wednesday, after breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. On Wednesday, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 30%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it is showing a bullish signal, suggesting that the KLCI is now resuming its uptrend channel (T1 and T2). Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 line are the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6.7%, while still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still actively participated with increased of fresh buying interests to offset the selling pressure. Therefore, as long as the volume is still above 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment is expected to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 70% and 90% level, entering the short term bullish territory, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is now bullish biased.

Generally, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, more upside room is expected for the KLCI in short term. After contracting for 6 days, the Bollinger Bands Width finally re-expanded, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the increased of volume. Therefore, the KLCI has its uptrend conditions intact, and provided that these conditions are still in place, the uptrend is expected to continue until the contraction of Bollinger Bands Width again.

综合指数 2009年 5月 20日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数重返布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上后，布林频带重新打开30%，所以综指上涨19.14点或1.9%，创下8个月新高。接下来只要布林频带继续打开的话，那综指将能维持目前的涨势，直到布林频带开始收窄为止。

如图所示，综指也重回T1及T2上升趋势轨道，继续上扬格局，这也意T2上升趋势线再度的成为综指上扬的动态支持水平。综指当前的支持水平落在1000点的心理关口，阻力水平则是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加6.7%，使到成交量继续维持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场的交投仍然活跃，足以吸纳套利的卖压，维持上扬的动力，换句话说接下来成交量只要能保持在40天的成交量平均值以上的话，那综指涨势有望持续下去。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续上扬并分别突破70%及90%水平，进入短期强势区域，这表示综指短期恢复上强势。接下来随机指标只要维持于70%水平以上的话，综指的后市就有望更上一层楼。

布林频带收窄6天后终于重新打开，配合综指维持在布林中频带以上及成交量继续的增加，综指已有恢复上扬趋势的条件。总的来说，虽然综指继续受到外围市场的左右，不过综指技术上依然有上扬的空间，直到布林频带收窄为止，届时将是综指进入另一个调整巩固格局的讯号。