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As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 8% (compared to the previous 22%), this shows that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting. If the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.
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As circled at C, the Stochastic reached 100% and retreated on Thursday, breaking below 90% level. This suggests that the KLCI short term is now over-bought, and a risk of a technical correction is expected in near term. Nevertheless, should the Stochastic remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.
如图所示,综合指数周四一度跳空上扬,惟市场技术性出现套利活动导致综指下调回补缺口(Gap),按日微跌0.49点。综指阻力水平依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线阻力线,支持水平则维持在200天移动平均线(MA)及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持水平。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带周四打开的幅度从之前的22%减少至8%,这意味着布林频带有开始收窄的迹象。若布林频带开始收窄的话,届时将是综指进入调整巩固格局的讯号。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量进一步增加34%,创下了自2007年2月28日(14个月)以来的新高,这表示市场的交投活跃,惟综指再度出现逢高套利的现象,这通常都暗示着综指目前开始接近比较强的阻力水平,所以技术调整的风险渐渐提高。
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总的来说,综指再次以跳空开市,惟综指随后补回此缺口,这是投资者在综指走高时套利的现象,这类的技术调整巩固是合理的,只要技术调整或巩固后依然在布林中频带获得扶持的话,那综指涨势还是没被破坏,换句话说,投资者必须密切关注布林中频带接下来的变化。
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