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Friday, May 8, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 07/05/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 5月 07日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 07/05/2009
On Thursday, the KLCI opened gap up again, but soon the KLCI retreated to filled up the gap as profit taking takes place, at the close, the KLCI lost 0.49 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1053 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still at 200-day MA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 8% (compared to the previous 22%), this shows that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting. If the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 34%, suggested the market was indeed very active, in fact, it marked another new high since the 28th of February, 2007. Although market volume increased substantially, it is actually suggesting that the KLCI is near a stronger resistance level, and therefore, there is a risk of a technical correction in the near term.
As circled at C, the Stochastic reached 100% and retreated on Thursday, breaking below 90% level. This suggests that the KLCI short term is now over-bought, and a risk of a technical correction is expected in near term. Nevertheless, should the Stochastic remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.
综合指数 2009年 5月 07日
如图所示,综合指数周四一度跳空上扬,惟市场技术性出现套利活动导致综指下调回补缺口(Gap),按日微跌0.49点。综指阻力水平依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线阻力线,支持水平则维持在200天移动平均线(MA)及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持水平。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带周四打开的幅度从之前的22%减少至8%,这意味着布林频带有开始收窄的迹象。若布林频带开始收窄的话,届时将是综指进入调整巩固格局的讯号。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量进一步增加34%,创下了自2007年2月28日(14个月)以来的新高,这表示市场的交投活跃,惟综指再度出现逢高套利的现象,这通常都暗示着综指目前开始接近比较强的阻力水平,所以技术调整的风险渐渐提高。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)到达100%水平后再度回软,并且跌破90%水平,这表示综指的短期走势过热,无论如何由于随机指标依然保持在70%以上,所以虽然随机指标显示综指有超买的迹象,不过只要随机指标还是保持在70%水平以上的话,综指短期还是属于强势中。

总的来说,综指再次以跳空开市,惟综指随后补回此缺口,这是投资者在综指走高时套利的现象,这类的技术调整巩固是合理的,只要技术调整或巩固后依然在布林中频带获得扶持的话,那综指涨势还是没被破坏,换句话说,投资者必须密切关注布林中频带接下来的变化。

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