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Monday, May 25, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 5月 25日 / Composite Index 25/05/2009

综合指数 2009年 5月 25日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步的打开24%,而综合指数则成功的保持在布林中频带以上,所以综指继续上扬,惟精确的在上周提到的1053点遇阻。若布林频带接下来能继续打开,加上综指还是获得布林中频带扶持的话,那综指有望突破1053点的阻力水平。
如图所示,综指依然处于T1及T2上升趋势轨道中,这表示综指目前的涨势还是完整的,目前T2及布林中频带继续是综指上扬的动态支持水平,阻力水平则依然是1053点的胜图自动费氏线。若综指能突破此阻力水平,综指下一道阻力水平是1077点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周一增加58.7%,使到成交量重返40天成交量平均线(VMA)以上,这表示市场目前获得足够的承接力来维持综指上扬趋势。另一方面,成交量的增加也加强了布林频带上扬的讯号,所以只要成交量能够继续维持在40天的平均值以上的话,这将有助于综指上扬突破1053点的阻力水平。

如图中C 圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)维持于70%水平以上,所以综指短期的走势还是属于强势,直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止,届时综指短期将有技术调整的风险。

总的来说,马股总成交量增加至40天成交量平均值以上确认了布林频带的上扬讯号,所以综指目前依然有良好的上升条件,直到布林频带开始收窄为止,届时将是综指进入巩固或技术调整的讯号。



Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 25/05/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 24% with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and as a result, the KLCI ended higher, but resisted by the 1053 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance for the KLCI to break above 1053.

As shown on the chart above, the T1 and T2 uptrend channel is still intact, with T2 and Bollinger Middle Band serving as the dynamic supports for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1053 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. If the KLCI should break above 1053, the next resistance shall be at 1077 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 58.7%, returning to above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the KLCI is once again fueled by fresh inflow of capital, thus a positive element in sustaining the KLCI uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.
In conclusion, the increase of volume has lifted the market sentiment, and it also confirmed the bullish Bollinger Bands signal. The uptrend of the KLCI is intact, and the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive, until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, then it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

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