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Monday, May 4, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 5月 04日 / Composite Index 04/05/2009 /

综合指数 2009年 5月 04日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开35%,而综合指数则处于布林中频带以上,所以综指继续上扬,并且成功突破1000点的心理水平,以1009.36点挂收,创下7个月的新高。综指目前的阻力水平将会是1053点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是1000点的心理扶持水平及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持水平。

由于综指目前依然处于200天移动平均线(MA)以上,所以综指的中长期走势继续转强,这也意味着200天MA成为了综指接下来的主要支持线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加6.7%,这使到成交量继续维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上,这表示市场的交投活跃,继续有新的买盘涌入市场来,从而推高综指。接下来只要成交量能够保持在40天的平均值以上的话,那综指有望保持当前走强趋势。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上周重回70%水平上以后,使到综指短期恢复上扬的格局,所以综指短期走势有望继续走强,直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

由于综指在上周三精确的于200天MA获得扶持反弹,这促使综指继续上扬,并且突破了1000点的心理阻力关口,再加上成交量维持健康水平,所以综指有望持续上扬的格局,直到布林频带开始收窄为止,届时将是综指进入调整巩固的讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 04/05/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 35%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, suggesting a bullish movement signal for the KLCI. The KLCI broke above 1000 psychological resistance level, closing 18.62 points higher at 1009.36 points, marked a 7 months new high.
Immediate support for the KLCI is at 1000 point, while other supports are seen at 200-MA as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6.7% while above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still relatively actively participated as more fresh buying flows into the market. As long as the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the current bullish market sentiment is expected to continue.
As circled at C, the Stochastic continue to rise on Monday, while staying above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is bullish biased, until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

After successfully rebounded from the 200-day MA, the KLCI resumed its uptrend with increasing volume and the bullish Bollinger Bands signal. Therefore, as long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish movement of the KLCI is expected to continue, until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, which would be a signal suggesting a consolidation.

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