Composite Index 25/01/2010As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI ended lower on Monday, as pulled down by the lower regional markets, the KLCI loss 3.66 points closing at 1296.79 points.
The KLCI formed a relatively smaller Hammer candlestick, suggesting a possible technical rebound ahead. Since the KLCI is now below the 1300 level, the 1300 is the immediate resistance followed by the next resistance at 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement; while the support is at 1290 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. With the KLCI now below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is turning weak.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 1.2% while still above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the overall market participation is still sufficient, and if the market volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the overall sentiment is likely to remain positive.As indicated by C, the MACD breaks below the trigger line, suggesting a weakening movement for the KLCI. If the MACD line should also break below the zero level, it would be a signal suggesting that the longer term movement of the KLCI is also turning weaker.
In short, the KLCI has to return to above the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 1300 level, or else, the risk of a reversal would be higher.
综合指数 2010年 01月 25日如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在国际指数纷纷收低的影响下走低，按日下跌3.66点，综指以1296.79点闭市，跌破了1300点的心理支持水平。综指随后在买盘的扶持下回弹，形成了一个小锤子（Small Hammer）型的阴阳烛，这是综指出现小技术回弹的讯号，惟此反弹未能突破1300点的关口。综指当前的阻力有刚刚跌破的1300点及1354点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1290点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄4%，所以综指继续的处于调整巩固的格局，无论如何，由于综指亦跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），所以若综指短期内未能返回到布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有出现转弱的走势。
如图中箭头B所示，成交量稍微减少1.2%，所以成交量继续守在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示马股整体市场还是相当的活跃，这对综指涨势有保温的作用。无论如何，若成交量继续下滑，那综指短期内转强的机会将越来越低。如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离（MACD）跌破触发线，所以综指的走势有开始转弱的迹象，接下来若平均乖离继续走低并且跌破零轴的话，那综指的中长期走势将有出现跌势的风险。
总的来说，接下来若综指未能迅速的反弹至1300点或布林中频带以上，那综指短期内恢复涨势的机会将越低，而综指将会倾向于继续调整巩固，甚至下探1290点的支持水平。
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