TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 01月 06日 / Composite Index 06/01/2010

Composite Index 06/01/2010
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands expanded another 27% on Wednesday, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and the KLCI gained another 4.93 points to close at 1293.17 points. The immediate support for the KLCI is at 1288 followed by 1257 Fibonacci Retracement, while the next resistance is at 1300 level.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook is still bullish bias. Technically speaking, the upside movement of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands should contracts. When the Bollinger Bands contracts, it means that the KLCI is consolidating.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 11.2%, but still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the overall market participation is still at a healthy level, and provided that the volume is above the 40-day VMA level, it suggests that the market is well liquid as well as the improved sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still situated above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish territory. Until it breaks below 70% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is on the positive side.

In short, the KLCI rally remains intact, until the Bollinger Bands should contract, or the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, then, the KLCI might have a technical correction or enter a consolidation stage. Then, the Bollinger Middle Band shall serve as the dynamic support, and if the KLCI should remains supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the bullish biased movement shall remains in place.

综合指数 2010年 01月 06日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开27%，所以富时综合指数继续上扬，综指以1293.17点闭市，按日上扬4.93点。由于综指突破了1288点的费氏线阻力水平，所以综指当前的阻力水平上移至1300点的心理阻力关口，支持水平则是刚突破的1288点以及1257点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指目前仍然是处于布林中频带以上，所以布林频带打开使到综指继续维持上扬的格局。以技术而言，综指将继续的处于一个上扬的格局，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，无论如何若布林频带打开的幅度减低，这意味着综指的上扬动力也相应的减少，所以是综指出现调整的暗示。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少11.2%，不过成交量仍然成功的维持在40天成交量（VMA）以上，这显示虽然投资者参与市场的交投量减少，不过市场的成交量仍然充足，所以整体上市场的承接力量依然能吸纳套利的卖压，这将有助于综指继续转强。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）仍然高于70%的水平，这表示综指短期的走势趋向上扬，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指目前的走势依然属于上扬的格局，无论如何，若布林频带开始收窄或随机指标跌破70%的水平，那综指将有出现技术调整的可能，届时布林中频带将成为综指的动态支持线，而综指只要一日在布林中频带上获得扶持，综指整体的涨势还是有望持续下去。