TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 07/01/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 01月 07日

综合指数 2010年 01月 07日
富时综合指数早盘一度走高，并且上扬至1299.70点的最高水平，惟综指随后在套利活动下回软，按日微跌1.75点。如图中箭头A所示，综指精确的在1300点的心理阻力关口遇阻，所以1300点接下来继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则落在1265点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减少至0%，所以综指出现技术调整的格局，一般上，若布林频带继续收窄的话，那综指将继续维持在调整的格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止。目前布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）成为综指的动态支持线，若综指跌破此支持线的话，那综指上扬的趋势将宣告结束，综指将有转弱的可能。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少11%，不过成交量仍然处于40天成交量（VMA）以上，这显示市场的参与者颇多，使到市场的承接力量提高，这将有助于市场吸纳套利活动的卖压。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）进一步下滑，这显示综指的短期走势有调整的迹象，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有形成下跌的风险，无论如何，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有继续趋软的可能，这是短线投资者套利所致的。

总的来说，综指周四出现了技术调整，所以接下来布林中频带成为了综指调整的第一目标，若综指成功的在布林中频带上回弹，这将意味综指走势依然强劲，综指有望继续走高，反之综指的涨势则有转弱的可能。

Composite Index 07/01/2010
The KLCI had an early gain on Thursday, up to its daily high of 1299.70, but as profit taking kicks in, the KLCI retreated, losing 1.75 points at the close. As indicated by A, the 1299.70 (1300 psychological level) is still the immediate resistance for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is at 1265 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 0%, suggesting that the KLCI is having its about to consolidate. Generally, when the Bollinger Bands contracts, the KLCI will consolidate or have its technical correction. Currently, the Bollinger Middle Band is serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn negative.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 11%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the overall market participation is still sufficient, as the market sentiment is still positive. Generally, provided that the volume could maintain above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI rally is likely to be sustainable.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated further, suggesting that the KLCI is about to have its technical correction. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In short, the KLCI ended lower on Thursday and the Bollinger Middle Band is now an important dynamic support. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that the KLCI might resume this uptrend. Other wise, if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the rally shall come to a temporary end.