TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 01月 19日 / Composite Index 19/01/2010

综合指数 2010年 01月 19日
富时综合指数在阔别了20个月后，终于重新站在1300点的水平，综指周二以1300.35点闭市，按日上扬2.36点。如图中箭头A所示，综指在突破了1300点的心理阻力关口后，一度上探至1302.36点，惟综指随后在1300.35点的水平闭市，所以综指当前的支持水平是1300点的费氏线及1288点，阻力水平则上移至1354点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄40%，这表示综指继续的调整巩固，惟布林频带收得非常窄小，这意味着综指将有望在近期内摆脱调整巩固的格局，而出现新的趋势。一般上，若综指能继续保持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上的话，那综指将有望继续转强，若再加上布林频带开始明显的打开，那综指则会恢复上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量增加1.7%，这使到成交量继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这是整体市场交投活跃的讯号，通常成交量高于40天成交量平均值将有助于综指继续转强。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续守住70%以上的水平，所以综指的短期走势亦成功的处于上扬的格局，无论如何，接下来若随机指标跌破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有转弱的风险。

总的来说，由于布林频带收窄，所以综指目前正在酝酿着一个新的趋势，这意味着当布林频带再度打开时，综指将会出现一个新走势，届时综指新趋势将有综指处于布林中频带的相应位置来决定。

Composite Index 19/01/2010
The KLCI closed at 1300 level for the first time after 20 months, closing at 1300.35 points, gaining 2.36 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intra-day high reaching 1302.36 points, but only managed to close marginally above the 1300 level; therefore, the 1300 is now the immediate support followed by 1288, while the next resistance is at 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted another 40%, suggesting that the KLCI consolidation is still intact. With the Bollinger Bands now very narrow, it implies that the consolidation of the KLCI is near its end. Therefore, the KLCI is poised for a new movement, and if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.7%, while still above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market is still actively participated, and the market sentiment is likely to remain positive.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, suggesting that the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish bias. Therefore, the short term bullishness of the KLCI is expected to carry on, until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating, and when the Bollinger Bands should re-expand, it would be a signal suggesting of a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall be determined by the relative position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.