TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 01月 26日 / Composite Index 26/01/2010

综合指数 2010年 01月 26日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开28%，而综指已经以及处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下了，所以富时综合指数下挫13.77点或1.1%，以1283.02点闭市，综指当前的支持水平落在1272点，阻力水平则是1300点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示，综指精确的在布林中频带遇阻，再加上布林频带的打开使到综指出现了下跌的趋势，通常综指将继续走软，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下跌，不过成交量却增加了25.5%，所以成交量继续维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这是因为虽然投资者纷纷套利、止损离场，不过还是有投资者趁低吸购，不过若成交量太高，那表示卖压沉重，这将加剧综指的跌势。

如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离（MACD）继续下跌，所以综指的中长期走势亦开始转弱。通常综指将继续的走软，直到平均乖离的振荡指标（Histogram）形成一个圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

总的来说，综指在国际指数纷纷下挫的影响下亦不能独善其身，开始出现转弱的格局，以技术而言，综指将继续维持目前转弱的走势，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始收窄或随机指标（Stochastic）再度上扬突破30%为止。

Composite Index 26/01/2010
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands expanded 28%, with the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the Bollinger Bands suggests a bearish biased signal, and the KLCI loss 13.77 points or 1.1% to close at 1283.02 points.
Support for the KLCI is now at 1272 level while the resistance is at 1300 level.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased. If the Bollinger Bands should continue to expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the bearish movement is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 25.5%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that despite the profit taking activities, there were still some bargain buying at lower price. However, technically speaking, if the market to fall with huge volume, it is a sign of higher selling pressure, thus it will dampen the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the MACD is still falling, suggesting that the mid to longer term movement of the KLCI is now turning weaker, and unless the histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, the weakening signal is expected to continue.

In conclusion, the KLCI is pulled down by cautious investors as market across the globe are weakening as well. In short, the technical outlook for the KLCI is now negative, unless the Bollinger Bands could begin to contract, or the Stochastic breaking above 30% level, which would suggest a consolidation for the KLCI.