TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 15/01/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 01月 15日

Composite Index 15/01/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 1300 level on Friday, but it has failed to break above this psychological resistance. At the close, the KLCI gained 3.87 points at 1298.58 points. Therefore, the 1300 level is still the immediate resistance for the KLCI while the supports are still at 1288 followed by 1276 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 11%, suggesting that the KLCI is still in its consolidation stage. However, the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 4.4%, with volume still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated, and the market sentiment in general is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which suggests that the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish bias. Technically, the short term movement for the KLCI is expected to be positive, until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

Due to profit taking, the KLCI failed to break above the 1300 level, thus it is still an important resistance level for the KLCI. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI has not turned bearish. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI would resume its uptrend, and more upside room is expected.

综合指数 2010年 01月 15日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度上探1300点的心理阻力关口，惟综指再度无功而返，综指在投资者套利的卖压下收窄涨幅，综指按日上扬3.87点，以1298.58点闭市。这意味则1300点的阻力仍然有效，这将成为综指下周的主要阻力水平，支持水平则落在1288点及1276点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄11%，这显示综指仍然未完全形成上扬的趋势，所以综指依然未能成功的上扬突破1300点的心理阻力，然而综指已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上了，所以接下来只要布林频带开始明显的打开，那综指将有望真正的形成一个上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微减少4.4%，所以成交量仍然能维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平以上，这是投资者继续活跃的讯号，一般上只要市场交投量继续高于40天的平均值，那综指继续转强的机会亦浓厚。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%以上的水平，这是综指短期走势偏强的讯号，换句话说，接下来只要随机指标能继续保持在70%以上的水平，那综指短期走势将有望继续的走强，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

综指继续周四回弹的趋势，并且上探1300点的阻力水平，惟部分投资者乘机套利，使到综指未能突破1300点的阻力水平，这也是为何1300点成为投资者的心理阻力水平。接下来只要布林频带能开始明显的打开，那综指将有望上扬突破1300点的阻力，届时综指的后市将有望更上一层楼。