TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 12/01/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 01月 12日

综合指数 2010年 01月 12日
富时综合指数以1292.85点闭市，按日微跌1.66点，综指基本上是呈横摆巩固的格局，综指当前的阻力水平是1300点的心理阻力水平，支持水平则落在1288点及1276点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄11%，这印证了综指处于横摆巩固的的说法，一般上综指将继续维持调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。如图中箭头A所示，综指在出现调整时，布林中频带将成为综指的动态支持线，若综指跌破布林中频带的话，那综指的走势将有出现转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增长20%，所以继续的守在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场仍然相当活跃，买卖双方正进行一个激烈的拉锯战，暂时鹿死谁手还是未知之数，无论如何，成交量高扯表示市场承接力量也相应的提高，这将有助于所示吸纳卖压，使到综指能继续维持在涨势里。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微下滑，惟随机指标还是能维持在70%以上，这显示综指的短期走势虽然有稍微转弱的迹象，不过综指的短期涨势并未完全被破坏，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指继续横摆巩固的格局，这可以从布林频带收窄的情形看出，一般上综指将继续维持目前横摆的格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止，届时综指的新走势将取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。

Composite Index 12/01/2010
The FBM KLCI closed at 1292.85 points on Tuesday, downed 1.66 points. Currently, the KLCI is basically moving sideways in its consolidation stage. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 1300 level while the support is at 1288 followed by 1276 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted 11%, suggesting that the volatility of the KLCI is reducing, thus a typical sign of a consolidating market. The consolidation of the KLCI is expected to carry on until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. During this consolidation, the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support, and if the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate bullish biased outlook would end.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 20%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is still actively participated. Generally, the relatively higher volume means a continuation of inflow of fresh capital, thus the market sentiment is likely to maintain positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated slightly, but still above 70% level, which suggests that the short term bullish signal is still intact.

In conclusion, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands suggested that the KLCI is still consolidating, and until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands, the KLCI is gearing up for another new movement, while the next direction would be determined by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.