TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2010年 01月 22日 / Composite Index 22/01/2010

综合指数 2010年 01月 22日
富时综合指数在道指及区域股市下挫的影响下走低，惟综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle band）获得扶持而回弹，这再度印证了布林中频带成为综指动态支持线的效用。综指当前的支持水平出来布林中频带之外，有着1300点的心理支持水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄4%，这显示综指出现技术调整，所幸的是综指仍然在布林中频带获得扶持，所以综指还不至于立即形成跌势。接下来只要综指继续的在布林中频带上获得扶持，那综指还是有望恢复上扬的趋势，反之若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指则有形成跌势的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量在综指走低的影响下减少5.4%，不过成交量仍然处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示市场仍然活跃，这将有助于综指恢复转强的走势。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微跌破了70%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势有出现转弱的迹象，无论如何。若随机指标能在短期内回弹，并且返回70%以上，那综指的短期走势将有望恢复上扬的趋势。换句话说，接下来若随机指标继续下滑的话，那综指的短期走势将有进一步调整的可能。

总的来说，综指在全球股市纷纷下跌的情形下，仍然能在布林中频带获得扶持，这表示综指并未完全确认转弱的走势。接下来若布林频带继续收窄表示综指将进一步调整巩固，无论如何，只要综指能守住布林中频带这到动态支持线，那综指仍然有机会恢复上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 22/01/2010
The KLCI ended lower amid negative performance across the regional markets, but the KLCI was supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and this suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the 1300 points is still a valid support for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating again. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, or else, the immediate outlook shall turn weaker.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 5.4% but still standing above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the market participation is relatively still active, thus the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, suggesting that the KLCI is having its technical correction. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should return to above 70% level in the near term, the short term bullishness of the KLCI would resume. If the Stochastic should continue falling, the short term movement for the KLCI would turn weaker.

In conclusion, the KLCI was pulled by the poorer performance of markets abroad, but remains supported, and this shows that the uptrend of the KLCI is still intact. In short, if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, the uptrend is likely to resume.