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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19 June 2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-06-19

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19 June 2012
As indicated by A, the KLCI rose sharply on Tuesday, closing at its daily high of 1594.98 points, gaining 12.25 points or 0.77%. As shown on the chart, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI, and the L2 line is the newly form short-term uptrend line. Next resistance for the KLCI is at 1600-1609 new high resistance.

Despite gaining over 12 points, which is the biggest gain since 29 of February, total market volume fell 0.91%, with volume still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the bullish movement on Tuesday was only participated by little investors. Technically, the market volume we have right now is still far away from reaching an ideal bullish market.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still ticking higher, thus suggesting that the KLCI short-term is still gaining some strength. The improving short-term signal is expected to carry on until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top.

In conclusion, the KLCI is extending is gains and forming the L2 short-term uptrend line. However, the bullish signal was not supported by strong volume. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is positive.

富时大马综合指数 2012-06-19
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数周二大举上扬,全日以最高点1594.98点挂收,按日张12.25点或0.77%。图中所示的142131EMA继续为综指上扬的动态支持线,另外,图中所示的L2线也是综指目前短期涨势的上升趋势线。综指下一道阻力落在1600-1609点的新高阻力水平。

虽然综指周二的上扬,是今年229日以来最大,但是马股总成交量却比昨日的减少0.91%,因此如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量还是处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。这表示马股虽然涨多跌少,但是参与其盛的人数并不多。对于达到一个理想涨势条件来说,目前低迷的成交量仍然有一段距离。

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续上升,这表示综指短期走势继续改善的意思,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶(Rounding Top)为止。

总的来说,综指继续走高,并形成了L2 线的短期上升趋势。不过,这涨势却未有的得到成交量明显增加的确认。无论如何,以技术而言,只要综指能维持在142131EMA的动态支持线以上,那综指目前的技术展望还是正面的。

祝你好运


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