FBMKLCI 04/06/2012
Due to the massive sell down in the US market last Friday, the KLCI opened gaped down on Monday, losing 18.41 points or 1.17%, to close at 1555.18 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below 1570 support, while remains below the L1 downtrend line. Next support for the KLCI is at 1535.
As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this clearly suggests that the the market participation is indeed quiet. The lower volume is still implying a weak market sentiment as investors confidence is still low.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram stopped rising, and might be forming a Rounding Top. If the MACD histogram should continue to fall and forming Rounding Top, it means that the KLCI is losing strength again, which suggests a weakening short-term movement.
In conclusion, despite the strong rebound in the past couple weeks, the KLCI failed to break above the L1 downtrend line, suggesting that the KLCI downtrend is still intact, with negative technical outlook. Meanwhile, major markets in the Europe are already below the 200-day Moving Average, and the US is now testing the 200-day MA line. As for the Asian markets, major indices in Japan, HongKong, Shanghai, Taiwan and Singapore had already broken below their 200-MA, while the KLCI is still holding up above this level. This suggests that the KLCI has least affected by the weaker global sell down.
随着上周五美国股市大幅度下跌，综指周一下跌跳空开市，按日下跌18.41点或1.17%以1555.18点挂收。如图中箭头A所示，综指失守1570点的支持水平，同时继续处于L1的下降趋势线以下。综指下一道支持落在1535点，阻力则是1566-1570点的水平。
如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量明显的处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平以下。这表示马股目前的交投还是很淡静，同时继续暗示着投资者对马股信心还是不强。简单来说，在还未达到理想的交投量的状况之下，马股整体上难以走高。
如图中C圈所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）停止上升，有形成圆顶（Rounding Top）的可能。若平均乖离振荡指标继续下滑而形成圆顶的话，那表示综指进入调整格局，短期走势再次有转弱的可能。
总的来说，尽管综指上两周大幅度的回弹，但是综指始终未能突破L1的下降趋势线，因此还是处于跌势中。换句话说，综指的技术展望依然未有改善。另一方面，欧洲主要股市都已跌破200天的移动平均线，而美国股市正试探200天的移动平均线。至于亚太区域，主要股市如香港、上海、新加坡及台湾都已经失守200天的移动平均线，但是马股依然处于200天移动平均线以上。换句话说，马股走势受影响最低，但以技术而言，还是处于跌势中。
祝你好运
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